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The intensity of ongoing heat over northeast China, eastern Mongolia and nearby Russia has grabbed my attention. As of Sunday, it is for the last five to six days that temperatures have soared above the benchmark of heat, 100 F (38 C). I cannot recall, at any time in my 28 years of forecasting, the likes of this heat wave happening in this part of Asia.
In the Russian region of Amur, Svobodnyy and Belogorsk reached 108 F, or 42 C, on Friday. Normal high temperature in late June would be near 25 C, or 77 F.
In the neighboring region of Chita, bordering both Mongolia and China, the string of 100-degree days reached at least four, if not more, as of Sunday. In Borzya, not only were four days above 100 F, but they were at least 40 C, or 104 F.
Much the same results have been felt in Heilongjiang and northeastern Nei Mongol, China. Such a contrast versus the flood-weary south of China, which has seen near-normal temperatures in June.
The full weight of heat reached the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar, where Saturday saw 38.3 C, or 101 F. This must rank amongst the highest temperatures ever reached in the city, which stands more than 1300 meters above sea level. Normally this time of year, highs are about 22 C to 23 C, or a little over 70 F.
Image credit: COLA/wxmaps.org
A look at the 500 mb analysis made at 1200 UTC today, Sunday, hints at the cause of the heat.
High pressure aloft has been locked over the heat wave area between long-wave troughs (east and west) and further complicated by weak low pressure to the south. Such a pattern ("blocking" pattern) happening over land at the time of highest sun is well correlated to heat waves.
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A boat carrying 31 people capsized on a lake near Branson, Missouri, as thunderstorms moved through the area on Thursday evening.
The risk of severe thunderstorms, including isolated tornadoes, will progress farther to the east and south over the central United States into Friday evening.
Severe thunderstorms tracked across Iowa on Thursday afternoon with several tornadoes touching down across the state.
A deadly heat wave is expected to continue into next week across Japan as Tropical Storm Ampil bypasses the region to the south.
Tropical Storm Ampil is set to strengthen as it tracks toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and eastern China.
An uptick in monsoon rainfall is expected to heighten the flood threat across eastern and northern India this weekend and early next week.
Near-record heat will set the stage for a heightened risk of wildfires in the southwestern United States, including Southern California, next week.