Prospects for a Highest Yearly Rainfall in Mumbai
September 02, 2010, 8:29:38 AM EDT
RAINFALL RECORD FOR MUMBAI IS IN REACH
Fellow weather enthusiast and blogger Rajesh has spoken on the potential for a record rainfall year in his home city, Mumbai.
The latest from the India Meteorology Department is that Mumbai Colaba, as of Sept. 1, has 3,013 mm of rain for the year (and essentially the year) thus far. Normal rainfall for a year is 192 cm.
Rajesh gives the number of 3,482 mm as the standing record highest rainfall for Colaba. The year was 1954.
A little subtraction shows that rainfall of 469 mm would be needed to reach the standing record high rainfall.
Given that the end of the rain-giving Southwest Monsoon happens during September, this month holds the key to prospects for a new record.
Normal rainfall during September is 259 mm. Thereafter, normal rainfall through the end of the year is less than 100 mm.
A wet September, maybe bolstered by substantial dry-season rainfall, could hike the yearly tally above the 3,482-mm mark.
Looking forward the fortnight, the GFS numerical forecast model shows persistence of the SW Monsoon, and with it a daily shot for rain in Mumbai. Not any big outbursts, though. It will take some outbursts to reach nearly two-fold the normal September rainfall.
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