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Western storm update No real changes to the storm situation in the far West through Saturday night. Some ski areas in he West are opening early due to the recent snowfall and this latest snow event will get the ski areas in the Rockies off to a great start to the season.
Overall pattern breakdown for next week
Massive ridge of high pressure aloft will form along the East Coast leading to another spell of unseasonably warm weather. A significant storm will likely track from the south-central U.S. to the Upper Midwest mid-week, leading to widespread rain and wind.
Weekly long range forecast model interpretation into the second week of December
--Drier pattern may temporarily set up across southern BC and the Pacific NW late in the month and early December as ridging forms off the West Coast.
--Despite the building ridge off the West coast, which would normally send colder air down into the nation's midsection (+PNA), the Arctic Oscillation is projected to remain in the positive phase through the end of the month, which would confine the coldest air up toward the pole.
--I still believe that there will be a more notable pattern change toward the end of November than what the models are currently showing with a slightly colder look from the eastern Prairies into Quebec. However, any cold that does come back into the east during that time will probably not stick around for long.
--One of the other international models that came out this week shows a fairly stormy pattern (more snow for the Rockies) into BC during the first half of December as the core of the Arctic air remains over the pole and in eastern Siberia. The model also floods much of the rest of southern Canada and the northern U.S. with Pacific air.
--From my experience, the ECMWF week 3-4 model does tend to over do the extent of warm anomalies during El Nino winters, so get used to seeing a lot of red in these maps as we head into winter. The key is trying to catch the colder shots before the model does.
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My thoughts on what the weather pattern may look like over the next two weeks.
Latest clues to the weekly long-range weather pattern into the start of September
Atmospheric signals look fairly weak for mid-August, which lowers confidence in the long-range outlook.
Latest clues to the long-range through mid-August.
Warmest weather relative to normal over the next 10 days will be across Atlantic Canada.
Tropical storm conditions to impact parts of southeastern Newfoundland later Thursday as Chris approaches.