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We have updated the snowfall forecast map. Latest trends support a slight shift north with the track, which brings the northern edge of the heavier snow into extreme SW Ontario and up into the Niagara region. Updated map as of 12:00 p.m. EST to account for increase in snow over Nova Scotia....
This will be an all-snow event for all areas affected in eastern and Atlantic Canada.
Snow will spread into Windsor area around 7 p.m. or so with the heaviest snow coming between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. Wednesday.
Light snow will begin in the GTA around 11 p.m. tonight. The heaviest snow from Toronto to Kitchener to the Niagara region will likely come Wednesday morning, so allow plenty of extra time for your commute into work.
Light snow will begin in the Montreal area around 5 a.m. Wednesday. The steadiest snow will occur late morning to mid-afternoon in Montreal.
Snow will begin in the Halifax, NS, area around noon Wednesday. Heaviest snowfall in Nova Scotia will come Wednesday afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast.
Snow will begin in the Avalon Peninsula, including St. John's, NL, just after midnight Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning. Expect a general 10-15 cm for this storm.
--------- Long-range model interpretation
The week of Feb. 10-16 is looking good for snow in the BC mountains.
The cold will ease across southern Canada around the middle of the month, but there are signs via the stratosphere and model that the cold could come back south at the end of the month and into early March.
Computer models have backed off a bit on the idea of a major coastal storm in the East Sunday/Monday. However, looking at the ensembles there is still a lot of spread (meaning different solutions among members) which tells me the models are still having a difficult time trying to figure out how the pattern will evolve later in the weekend. I would expect much better consensus by Thursday and a trend back toward a significant coastal storm.
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Significant snow is likely for parts of New Brunswick this weekend.
Cold air expected to spill into eastern North America in about 10 to 14 days.
Arctic air likely to retreat well to the north as we go into early December.
Active weather pattern through next week.
My weekly update on the short- and long-range patterns.