Updated Snowfall Forecast Map
2/15/2012, 9:00:49 AM
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Here is an update to our initial storm snowfall forecast map for the eastern storm tonight through Friday.
Again, this will be a minor event for most as the storm will be weakening. Computer models are also weaker with a secondary coastal storm, so amounts across New Brunswick/PEI and northern Nova Scotia through Friday night will likely be 5 cm or less.
Computer models are having a very difficult time figuring out whether or not the two separate branches of the jet stream will phase together this weekend. If they do phase, which is still highly in doubt, then parts of the Northeast U.S. and perhaps the Maritimes could be in for a snowstorm later this weekend. Timing and the amount of cold air available near the coast are also highly uncertain at this time.
I just took a peak at the new ECMWF monthly outlook. The model continues to forecast widespread above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of Canada for this spring with near-normal temperatures over the West. It also shows above-normal precipitation over British Columbia and also from Saskatchewan to central Ontario.
The model is also forecasting a warm summer over Atlantic Canada.
I will have more on ECMWF monthly later.
Keep in mind, the ECMWF model like most other models has a much higher skill level for temperatures compared to precipitation.
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