A low pressure system off the southern New England coast will track steadily toward the north-northeast through Friday. The storm will tap into a very humid air mass to the southeast. This air will be lifted over a cool air mass to the north and west resulting in heavy rainfall spreading up into southwestern New Brunswick very late tonight and continuing through Friday.
It looks like the core of the heavy rain will spread from eastern Massachusetts up through eastern Maine then across New Brunswick and up into the Gaspe Peninsula. A general 50-75 mm of rain is possible with locally higher amounts resulting in flooding.
The heaviest rain will fall Friday afternoon and evening from south to north across New Brunswick and the first half of Friday night for the Gaspe Peninsula.
Nova Scotia and PEI will also get wet but will be on the other side of the front with more showery type rains and even a thunderstorm.
Cool shot through the weekend for Manitoba and Ontario
A shot of cool air will cover southern Manitoba, parts of Ontario and much of the Midwest U.S. through the weekend. Temperatures during the period will average anywhere from 3 to 8 degrees C below normal.
Potential for strong thunderstorms over Alberta Saturday
A potent trough (pocket of cold air aloft) will approach Alberta on Saturday. As this trough runs into a warmer and more humid air mass, it will lead to the formation of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon from the Calgary area to just north of Edmonton. Gusty winds and hail will be the main threats from these storms.
BC looking for rain!
Rainfall has been pretty much a no show for southern BC over the past month. The last time there was measurable rain in Vancouver was June 27. Granted, July is typically a drier month, but usually not this dry. The EC map below shows the percentage of normal precipitation since June 25 for BC. The red areas indicate 40% or less. However, many of the areas in red are under 10 % of normal precipitation.
There may be some showers coming across southern BC on Sunday, but amounts will be generally light. We will take what we can get!
No signs of any heat waves over the next two weeks
Good news if you hate the heat like I do.... the overall pattern will be more west to east across southern Canada over the next two weeks which should keep the heat suppressed well to the south, while a more Pacific type air mass spreads across southern Canada and the northern U.S. Yes, there can still be some very warm to hot days during the period, but we do not see anything sustained and overall it looks like temperatures will average close to normal once we get into next week.
In case you did not know....the graphic features like the ones that are posted above are finalized by our excellent graphics artists here at Accuweather.com. In addition to my blog duties, my normal daily schedule here at Accuweather is the graphics feature schedule. On an average day, I create anywhere from 15 to 20 hand drawn features (using colored pencils and lots or erasers) that cover weather events across North America and sometimes overseas. These rough drafts then are given to our talented artists who make them usable for TV, web, newspaper and mobile across the globe.
My job is a lot of fun and I get to be creative while still studying the weather.
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Significant snow is likely for parts of New Brunswick this weekend.
Cold air expected to spill into eastern North America in about 10 to 14 days.
Arctic air likely to retreat well to the north as we go into early December.
Active weather pattern through next week.
My weekly update on the short- and long-range patterns.