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Back from a nice break visiting relatives in coastal North Carolina. The weather down there was mostly dry last week but still cool for this time of the year. I will say that many of the flowering trees have already flowered and are turning green thanks to the record warmth of February giving those trees a one- to two-week head start. Our car was covered with pollen.
Long range thoughts......
Old Man Winter seems to have tightened his grip across a large part of southern Canada and the northeastern U.S. recently and it looks like he just does not want to let go for at least the next one to two weeks.
However, there are signs of a pattern change toward the end of this month and into early April as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation go positive, which should allow more Pacific air to spread across the U.S. and southern Canada while the core of the cold retreats to central and northern Canada. This process will likely take some time, but we have the strengthening sun on our side as days are rapidly lengthening and daylight is nearing the north pole.
Based on the latest teleconnection data, I do think the weekly long-range forecast model output still looks too cold across south-central and southeastern Canada at the end of this month and into early April.
However, I do not see any stretches of much-above normal temperatures in the East. The Atlantic ridge is well displaced to the east, and there are no signs of it getting back close to the SE U.S. coast or Bermuda through early April.
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Tropical storm conditions to impact parts of southeastern Newfoundland later Thursday as Chris approaches.
We expect to see a little of everything over the next two weeks in Canada with hot and cool spells and thunderstorm risks.
Severe thunderstorms in the Prairies and even some snow for the Rockies
Latest clues to the long range outlook through June.