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This is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long-range seasonal forecast output that gets updated once a month. This update goes through the upcoming winter.
Keep in mind, we have not released the AccuWeather.com winter or even fall forecast as of yet. We should have the full fall forecast for Canada released by the third week of August.
This particular model actually had one of the better, if not the best, seasonal long-range forecasts for last winter, which was a winter that delivered a number of surprises. FALL 2012 MODEL FORECAST
WINTER 2012-13 MODEL FORECAST
A couple of notes about this ECMWF forecast........
1. The model has highest confidence in the above-normal winter temperatures across northern Canada/Alaska and the dryness over the Pacific Northwest. The Alaska forecast is the opposite of last year.
2. The model continues to show below-normal tropical storm/hurricane activity in the Atlantic/Gulf basin through the fall.
3. The model continues to predict weak to moderate El Nino conditions this fall and leveling off for the winter.
4. Keep in mind, precipitation forecasts have a higher error rate than temperature anomaly forecasts.
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We expect to see a little of everything over the next two weeks in Canada with hot and cool spells and thunderstorm risks.
Severe thunderstorms in the Prairies and even some snow for the Rockies
Latest clues to the long range outlook through June.
Early start to summer-like conditions for the West.
Typical spring pattern shaping up across a large portion of the country through the rest of this month.