Here is my latest interpretation of the latest ECMWF long range forecast model that goes out through early January.
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Trying another new map background. I was not too crazy about the last change.
--Greater than usual uncertainty within this model, especially after Christmas.
--NAO and AO are projected to be mostly in the negative phase through the end of this month, which usually argues for cold air to be farther south than normal. However, the PNA is projected to stay mostly negative, which allows more Pacific air to push across the U.S. and limits the amount of Arctic air that can get south.
Basically what I am saying is that the North Atlantic and Arctic circulation patterns over the next three weeks looks favorable for winter-like weather over a large part of Canada, but the Pacific circulation is not very favorable at this point.
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Arctic air likely to retreat well to the north as we go into early December.
Active weather pattern through next week.
My weekly update on the short- and long-range patterns.
Early-season snowstorm for parts of southern BC
Update on the weather pattern across North America into November.