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    Brett Anderson

    Long Range Forecast Model Update through New Year's Day

    12/07/2012, 5:20:59 PM

    Here is my latest interpretation of the latest ECMWF long range forecast model that goes out through early January.

    You can follow me on twitter at @BrettAWX

    Trying another new map background. I was not too crazy about the last change.




    --Greater than usual uncertainty within this model, especially after Christmas.

    --NAO and AO are projected to be mostly in the negative phase through the end of this month, which usually argues for cold air to be farther south than normal. However, the PNA is projected to stay mostly negative, which allows more Pacific air to push across the U.S. and limits the amount of Arctic air that can get south.

    Basically what I am saying is that the North Atlantic and Arctic circulation patterns over the next three weeks looks favorable for winter-like weather over a large part of Canada, but the Pacific circulation is not very favorable at this point.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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