Forecast Model Ensemble Forecasts for July and August
6/11/2014, 12:50:13 PM
CPC's National (NMME)l & and International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) has been released.
The multi-model ensemble approach to long range model forecasting has shown better accuracy on average compared to individual models.
While the NMME and IMME (MMA) are still experimental, there is hope that these will become operational in the near future.
Keep in mind, these are not AccuWeather.com forecasts. Instead, I am just showing you what some of the tools that we use in long range forecasting are predicting for the next few months in terms of temperature, precipitation and ENSO.
In terms of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast, the NMME is still predicting a moderate intensity EL Nino later this summer into the early winter (see below).
In general, a weak El Nino is a several month period of +.5 to 1, moderate 1 to 1.5 and strong above 1.5.
NMME & IMME temperature anomaly forecasts for July. Blue indicates cooler than normal forecast while reds and oranges indicate warmer than normal.
NMME & IMME precipitation anomaly forecasts for July. Greens indicate wetter than normal forecast, while reds indicate drier than normal forecast.
NMME & IMME temperature anomaly forecasts for August
NMME & IMME precipitation anomaly forecasts for August
As you can see by the above maps, there is a consensus for a wetter July/August in the Prairies. A warm July/August in far western Canada and much below normal precipitation along the western Gulf of Mexico coastal region, likely due in part to the incoming El Nino which would reduce the threat for tropical systems into that region. Time will tell.
By the way, so far at this early stage there appears to be strong consensus among long range models that at least the start of next winter will end up warmer than normal for most of Canada. This is likely due in part to the expected El Nino that the models are focusing on. One of the key players to the winter forecast will certainly be the actual strength of the El Nino.
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com
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