...STRONG STORM TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, SNOW, RAIN, AND FREEZING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS THIS WEEKEND... A deep storm developing in the Pacific is expected to cross into the eastern Bering Sea between late Saturday night and midday Sunday. Confidence in the overall storm track has increased, but some uncertainty remains. The most likely storm track is from the eastern Aleutians Sunday morning to St. Matthew Island on Monday, passing just east of the Pribilof Islands. A second, but less likely track would bring the low over Nunivak Island. For the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, the most likely impact is strong southeasterly winds becoming southwesterly as the storm passes overhead sometime Sunday afternoon. With higher confidence in the track, the storm's timing and strength will determine the severity of the impacts, so stay tuned to the forecast for more details. For Southwest Alaska, the most likely scenario is gusty southeasterly winds from the Western Capes north into the greater Y-K Delta region. Precipitation along the leading storm front is likely to be snow, but a transition to freezing rain and rain is expected as the storm moves north. Given the recent snow and cold temperatures, rain falling onto frozen or snow-covered ground is likely to create difficult travel conditions. Minor coastal flooding impacts are possible with the projected storm track, but the limited fetch and lower tide cycle should help mitigate storm surge from this storm. The less likely, but still possible, scenario would bring the low near Nunivak Island, which would lead to a larger fetch and potential for more coastal erosion and/or flooding. Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to monitor this system.
