How will the upcoming winter season impact your business? AccuWeather's experts release their 2025-26 winter forecast
AccuWeather's experts present their 2025-26 winter weather forecast to help businesses and organizations prepare for what's coming
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With October here, it won’t be long until the cold and snow return. Lincoln Riddle spoke with our long-range experts to find out what you can expect this winter to be like in the U.S.
Winter weather can bring disruptions to routines and travel when snow, ice and bitter temperatures are in the forecast, leading to huge financial losses.
What is in store for the 2025-26 winter season?
During AccuWeather's Get Your Business Winter Ready: 2025-26 Winter Weather Forecast Webinar on Thursday, Oct. 2, AccuWeather experts laid out their winter forecast models to help companies be better prepared with AccuWeather's forecasts and warnings, which have proven Superior Accuracy™.
The meteorological winter season, which kicks off on Dec. 1, will overall likely be mild, mimicking 2024-25, which was the warmest on record, said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
But frigid temperatures and heavy snow will still make an appearance. Break out the puffy jackets and snow shovels because the cold is coming quickly, Pastelok said.
“December, it doesn't wait. In fact, we could see a brief shot of cold air, a little weakness in the polar vortex, sometime mid-October,” Pastelok said. “We're looking at that right now. And then some shots in November, and shots in December.”
How much snow might be coming?
Heavy snow is also predicted in the Northwestern U.S., and strong lake effect snow could bring higher than normal precipitation to areas near lakes, he said. An uptick in snow is also likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
This forecast is different from December 2024, which saw little lake effect snow.
The new year will start mild in the east, potentially melting any snow that then could turn to ice when temperatures drop overnight.
"The heart of the ski season can be rough in the east," Pastelok explained. Even at ski resorts where there is a healthy base of snow, slopes may turn icy as the snow melts during the daytime and then freezes overnight.
New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are a sampling of the cities predicted to have more snow than last winter, in part due to more snow opportunities in February. Places including Chicago and Buffalo may not only have more snow than last winter, but they also have a chance of snowfall totals for the season piling up more than the historical average this winter.
A February polar vortex is likely to bring bitter, chilling temperatures and freezing air to portions of the eastern U.S.
“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January, and February,” said Pastelok. “Definitely have to keep an eye on February. I think that could be the biggest month as far as dramatic changes. We could have snow and ice pretty far south, and also severe weather.”
Though mid-January 2025 saw a cold freeze that stretched to the Gulf Coast, cold temperatures aren’t likely to hit the south until later in the winter. In the Southwest pThough mid-January 2025 saw a cold freeze that stretched to the Gulf Coast, cold temperatures aren’t likely to hit the south until later in the winter. In the Southwest portion of the country, record warmth is predicted into the winter months, with severe thunderstorms also possible.
Snowfall is projected to be higher than last winter in parts of the Northeast, including Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, though totals may still finish below the historical average as storms during mid- to late winter may produce a mix of rain and snow rather than just snow.
A snowy winter is predicted across portions of the Midwest, a swath from the Plains to the Ohio Valley, and areas of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.
December could be especially active around the Great Lakes, where blasts of cold air will fuel heavy lake-effect snow. Buffalo, New York, is forecast to receive 90–100 inches of snow, close to its historical average and more than the 77.6 inches measured last winter.
What about La Nina?
La Nina will play a part in the coming winter season, much as it was a factor in recent winters. The phenomenon occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain below the historical average for an extended period, which can significantly influence weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms.
“Are we looking at an official La Nina, or just La Nina conditions? We saw this last year, it wasn't official La Nina, but we did see La Nina. And what that is, is the Equatorial Pacific Ocean,” Pastelok said. “The water temperatures are cooling off. They're doing it right now.”
Virtually eliminate the risk of being caught off-guard by snow and ice with AccuWeather's Snow Warning ServiceTM
AccuWeather’s exclusive Snow Warning ServiceTM, which helps businesses and other organizations prepare for snow and ice events, provides several days advance notice of winter weather.
“It has proven to be the most accurate forecast and alerting service,” said Dan DePodwin, Senior Director of Forecast Operations at AccuWeather. “It really helps organizations help reduce their risk, enhance their safety for their, either their customers or their employees, and also helps to prevent spending on treatment, for instance, that is not necessary for certain events, so you can reduce spend and better manage budgets as well.”
The service is a proactive one, with the more than 100 operational meteorologists at AccuWeather working daily to predict weather and that focuses on all aspects, including paved surfaces and travel, not just overall snow and ice accumulation.
“The difference between road accumulation and non-road accumulation or sidewalk accumulation can be quite different, especially at the beginning and the end of the winter season, when temperatures can be near the freezing mark,” DePodwin said. “And so understanding that difference is an important part of this service, and that's what we are providing to you, so you don't have to decipher that yourself if you're looking at other forecasts.”
Plows, at right, try to pass nearly stopped traffic, due to weather conditions, on Route 93 South, Tuesday, March 14, 2023, in Londonderry, New Hampshire. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Forecasts that are not accurate can lead to poor decisions and impact travel, leaving people stranded at airports or along the side of the road.
“As an example, we've studied this, and we compare our forecast constantly to what else is out there. Our start and end times are… have an average error of an hour and a half,” DePodwin said. “That compares to more than three hours from other sources, so therefore, other sources… the AccuWeather is at least twice as accurate, on average, in terms of when the snow will start and end, and that's a very important, key metric, because having an understanding of when that occurs really helps you prepare for whether to cancel school, delay school, to delay employees coming into an office, when to treat so you don't treat too early.”
If you subscribe to the service, you can receive information and alerts via text, email, the exclusive AccuWeather For Business portal and on the mobile app.
Customers include government agencies, school districts, healthcare organizations, retail outlets, plowing companies, landscape companies and others.
Having exclusive, expert warnings can help reduce liability and minimize overtime costs.
“Obviously, it's not a good situation to put crews out in the field to treat and then not have an event that causes issues, and eliminate unnecessary preparation there for storm events that are not going to materialize,” DePodwin said.
Consultations with AccuWeather snow experts
The AccuWeather Snow Warning ServiceTM also includes consultation with AccuWeather experts as a key part of the service, to get more information on what is coming, no matter what time of day or year it is.
It's one thing to receive a piece of information via an app, or a text message, or an email, but it's another to be able to say, oh, I have a quick question about that, can I get some more information,” DePodwin said.
The service also focuses not only on how much snow will fall and when, but what the rate of snowfall is predicted to be. Snow that falls slowly does not accumulate as rapidly, and usually road crews have an easier time keeping up with it. But snowfall rates of 1 or more inch per hour can really have a significant impact on road conditions, so understanding that's very important, DePodwin said.
Also, knowing what time snow will change to ice or even rain can greatly impact business decisions as well.
