LIKE IT OR NOT, THERE'S NO DISPUTIN THE PRESENCE OF PUTIN.

Folks back in the 1980s the Us president Ronald Reagan warned Europeans not to rely on any pipelines coming from the Soviet Union. Reagan of course was a fierce anti communist, but the reason for that was because he was a man who believed as much as possible in self reliance. Interestingly enough, I believe Vladimir Putin is very much the individualist that Reagan was, and is out to do what he believes is best for Russia.

Years after Reagan leaving office, we are seeing why he was so upset about the pipeline. He felt that would make the western European nations dependant on the actions of the people controlling the pipeline.

Now please dont get me wrong about Putin. I think this is a very strong determined smart man. I dont think his goal is to take over Europe. I think his goal is to do what is best for his nation. Now comes the weather/climate part for you to ponder.

The Russians are suggesting that the EU lend Ukraine money for the upcoming winter, so there is know energy cut off. Its basically a request for 1 billion dollars. What is the EU to do? Pay the bill up front? But this year 1 billion, next year who knows. If you BELIEVE a colder time is coming in the upcoming years, and you know people you supply are energy strapped, who is holding the cards.

The former head of the KGB is a fascinating person. I have stated before, as an ex collegiate wrestler, if Putin was my opponent today across the mat... I know I would have my hands full. I think there are many naive leaders today that are supporting AGW positions, in a wrestling match, I am sure I could break.. by that I mean keep coming and have them literally quit on the mat. Putin... I dont think so, it would come down to who was the best wrestler ( perhaps if he shows up in Tiblisi we can do a celebrity 1-1-1..he looks like he pumps iron a bit.. no mixed martial arts.. he has a black belt..lol) But what makes anyone with any realism think that Putin does not have access to the volumes of information that the Russian scientific community has pioneered on solar cycles and temperatures. The head of the St Petersburg observatory recently came out and said its ice, not fire that is the problem

So here is the question, which should you fear more, as far as having your nation dominated by someone else, warm or cold? And dont blame Putin, he is using what he knows to do what is best for his nation. He is not going march and army or shoot a nuclear missile into western Europe. I do believe though, given his actions ( think of last year and now this) that he is showing what his nation can do because they are prepared to do it.

No one is saying that we should not continue to develop other energy sources, but dont kid yourself..when you look are willing to look at all the facts, you see there is plenty of doubt about where this is going. It will be interesting to see over the years if I wind up correct about this. But for the second year in a row, Mother Russia is flexing her energy muscle, and the colder it gets, the stronger she is.. And dont blame her leaders, one cant blame a strong person for being strong just because one is weak and not willing to do the work to get strong.. That is a play on Abe Lincoln, who once said you cant make a weak man strong by making a strong man weak.

Now, let me step out further... The much maligned and dare I say hated Us president George W, Bush opined about "intelligent design" of the earth and its system, which of course instantly got him attacked worse as being dumb. Its fascinating to me, with solar cycles tanking like they are, increased seismic activity, reversing oceanic cycles, and some of us out there thinking a cold winter is in store for 3 of the major industrial areas of the world, and with what some of the Russian scientists have been suggesting, that a power even greater than Al Gore or Gordon Brown may be stepping in to wake some people up.

The irony... Putin may be using that.

Folks, the tentacles of the weather are long and strong, and getting longer and stronger

thanks for reading, ciao for now ***

SUNDAY NOV 1

A LINK TO LORD MONCKTON

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/30/monckton-on-glenn-beck-video-now-availabl e/

SUNDAY NOV 1

NICE WEATHER ENDS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE

The recent warmth will soon be gone as a powerful trough digs southeast into the heart of the continent as the week wears on Because there is little true arctic air available, the air mass is more cool than cold however heavy snows should develop over the Alps later this week further bolstering the idea that this could be a snowy winter. Even Scotlands highlands may see some snow this week as a very powerful cold low digs in and then is re-enforced later in the week

The trough is as powerful aloft relative to the averages as the trough that lead to record cold in eastern and central Europe in mid October but it is aimed further west. That means in stead of moving south out of the area east of England and having high pressure develop over Scandinavia and deliver and ac air mass more of arctic origin, we are seeing air masses that are coming out the north atlantic so they are MARITIME POLAR not CONTINENTAL POLAR in origin It means low elevation areas dont get as cold but can have more precip.

I will be tidying up the winter idea as we get into November, but the idea of major cold somewhere in europe this winter, colder than last year still rules. The gut call is that eastern Europe has the harsher winter than the west, but the Bejing model has me a bit more concerned about it being further west. Its my analog package and reversing PDO theory vs the modeling.

A look at water temps http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.10.29.2009.gif

Indicates an atlantic ocean "tripole" of warm in the northern atlantic cold off the US east coast and then warm off the southeast coast of the US. Keep in mind, this is a noaa chart who's formula was changed 9 months ago so it looks like everyone is boiling. A look at the Australian site: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ ( click on sea temps) reveals no such boiling and shows more clearly the temps as they are.

In any case I like thjs look as the cool pool extending east from the N american continent to the central atlantic is favorable for the negative NAO/AO combination that supports my overall winter idea.

Think Globally to forecast locally

Notes and asides:

The British have a national treasure in one Lord Christopher Monckton. I have spoken with him a couple of times, and heard him speak at conferences before and if you can get a hold of his appearance on Glenn Beck Friday night, his challenge of Al Gore and his revelation of Dr Richard Linzden study of the IPCC positive feedback theory, which is not occuring, blows the base of the foundation of the global warming argument out of the water.

But what I cant understand is how this is not allowed to come to the forefront in Britain. The BBC climate reporter should be talking to Monckton and after he does, I am sure Paul may be questioning the science even more than the article that caused the stir in the first place.

You folks cant lay down. I am not asking you to BELIEVE ME, I am asking people to look at all the facts. You see the difference. You have one side saying, shut up the debate is over, you have the other appealing to the good will and common sense of people world wide to look1 How is that an extreme position? Unless of course this is Alice N Wonderland.

In any case, the man is a gem and at least listening to what he has to say is something I would suggest.

And he does love HIS country! Upon meeting my son, Garrett, his admonition was to make sure your father always buys British. Since I have been engulfed in an "ale" controversy I will make sure that I try products before shooting my mouth off on them (lol)

I have never been a big beer or ale drinker and only drink my wines cold! I am sure I can bring my brand of Italian Margarita, which shows the true value of diversity with the different solutions I have in it, to Europe and make people forget all about global warming and other things quickly.

ciao for now *****

TUESDAY OCT 28.

ON THE WEATHER MENU... THE CHINESE MODEL FOR THE WINTER.

Another pretender the the Hadley Centre's weather thrown in Europe has arisen... the Chinese. For the modeling they have is indicating rough sledding for the 3 major industrial areas of the northern hemisphere and is in line with thinking from this forecaster.

To be sure, its the mid and latter part of winter I am most concerned about for Europe, and further east and south than north and west.

However the Chinese model is by far the coldest I have seen for Europe yet. It centers the blocking far enough west to allow the trough further east.. between England and Scandinavia with major cold across Greenland.. a variation of the situation. Hadley center models forecast for a warmer look have to be because of a warm pdo version of the winter the model sees. Whether this fight between me, and my new ally, the CHINESE model, which is looking a a spiking of the pdo warm following a multiyear cold signal is right or not will not be answered of course until the winter is over. But to put it bluntly, the modeling out of Bejing is colder further west than I am!

Tomorrow on clear the air with Evan Myers, who is very restrained on his program compared to the Evan I have fought with on every issue I can think of since I first met him ( he claims he made me a hero one night by "giving" me a forecast that was dead on for snow in Atlantic City that I impressed my ex high school chums with, and we have been fighting ever since..we are good friends) I will be showing the winter idea, which is a toned down version of the analogs I am using. I may try to do something on our free site on Thursday for pubic consumption, but Henry makes me get dressed up, which I still dont see any benefit for with my looks. Those analogs are 1969-70,1976-77,1977-78 ,2002-03. The secret is looking at the 3 year running PDO value till the summer before the winter in question, and comparing it to the winter in question. Since I believe the PDO will spike warm this winter, it is that relationship that causes cold to congregate in these areas. This relationship grew out of my search for the answer of 51-52 and is predicated on a warm PDO for the winter. The physical reasons are this: The cold PDO is a cooling signal for the earth, but centered over the north and tropical Pacific. A sudden spike warm, in an overall cooling signal, forces the winter cold into the continents. Compounding our problem is solar and volcanic effects in a cumulative fashion over the past few years. However I dont think we have the potential cold on the table we did back in the 70s, which was at the end of a multidecadol run of cold.

Notes and asides.

I have been taken to the stocks (figuratively) by a reader taking offense to my lack of knowledge of how to serve ale in a British pub.. at room temp. I beg your forgiveness as my heritage is further south and knows more about the fruit of the vine, than of the field. However I will remind you that my ancestors were up there in one time of global warming ( Rome) and then around the time of the Tudor Kings, Grapes, among other warm weather fruits, were grown in the northwest and wine was made in these places. See how I turned adversity into advantage, delivering yet another blow against the idea of global warming, and without the aid of ale or wine.

I informed the reader that if Gordon Brown is right, then ale will be served at 90 degrees ( new room temp if he is right) and then he will be forced to chill it, which would make me right.

Heh, if twisted logic can flood London because of the rise in oceans that is coming, I can certainly use it to chill ale.

Chill... I mean, ciao for now ****