Is Solar Cycle to Blame for Lack of Summer?
7/6/2009 10:40 AM
By Alex
Sosnowski
AccuWeather.com
While there will be spikes of
summer weather for
the Northeast during July, the
persistence of the past
weather pattern so far this
season will probably win out for the heart of the summer.
The real year without a summer destroyed a massive amount of crops in
the Northeast way back in 1816. That was the
grandfather of all cool summers. In fact it was downright cold. Ice was found on rivers in July and August and killing frosts and freezes occurred
throughout that summer. The event is believed to be caused by the great volcanic eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 and a low in radiation emitted by
the sun.
Image of the sun taken July 6, 2009
showing the start of a new round of sunspots (Photo courtesy of SpaceWeather.com)
There have been no volcanic eruptions in recent years that have even come close to that of Tambora. However, the solar cycle may be a routine player
in cooler-than-average weather patterns.
According to NASA, the sun completed a solar minimum part of its cycle in 2008. The last solar maximum was around 2001. During a solar minimum, there
are few or no sunspots. Some studies have shown that when sunspots are present, the area of the sun surrounding the spots is brighter. While the
process is much more complex than this and the effects are probably not instantaneous, a lack of sunspots could translate to slightly less
heating.
Now, back to the weather maps. While surges of summer warmth from the south are expected along the Atlantic Seaboard in the coming weeks, a prolonged
period of hot weather in July does not appear likely for
New England.
Instead, a dip in the
jet stream will persist in the coming weeks. In
turn, this will allow cool fronts to sweep through on a regular basis, each with bouts of clouds, showers and locally
severe thunderstorms.
Since the
mid-Atlantic will be on the southern fringe of these dips in the
jet stream and the corresponding cool fronts, longer episodes of warmth
and rain-free conditions are in store. At least relative to that experienced in
New England, New York and the northern tier of Pennsylvania and New
Jersey.
Recall that back in May, AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert, Joe Bastardi predicted that the warmest weather relative to normal probably had already
occurred for the warm weather months. During late April, temperatures had surged to 20 degrees above average in much of the Northeast.
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