Joe's Meteorological Outlook: October 26, 2005

The thoughts expressed in this column represent Joe Bastardi's personal interpretation of the weather pattern formulated from his expert analysis of the conditions affecting the weather in the entire Northern Hemisphere.

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POWER RESTORED TO JB RESIDENCE.

1.) There is a rumor that attempts to repair central PA radar were hindered by downed trees and prevented travel to site. It's back in action now, though.

2.) W.A.R zone is responsible for such things shifting away.

3.) A leftover strong piece of trough rotates through the East with the growing season ending cold all the way into the interior Carolinas and Ohio Valley. Offshore development means a high settles in for a nice eastern weekend as the Plains warm now until the weekend. The trough does cause instability snow showers in many areas that got the snow over the last 24-36 hours, but no big, wet weather in the East.

4.) The Pacific jet crashes through the Northwest with the first shot of rain over the next couple of days. The system will buckle the jet into the Ohio Valley next week, but no cold air will belt anyone with below-normal temps. Despite the trough, most of the nation warms, and the western ridge centers warmth with bullwhip of Pacific warmth over the top.

5.) Caribbean trouble is brewing with development a good bet by Sunday in a slow, classic fashion. Strong east winds will start in Florida over the weekend. Interaction with the aforementioned trough means great wailing and gnashing of teeth for Southeast/East forecasters as to systems interaction and involvement. It will not be as intense nor as far west in path in relation to the U.S.

6.) Blocking pattern and turn to nationwide cold pattern are still 10-15 days of at least, though a trough in the means may redevelop near the East Coast next weekend. The pattern next week may be a later version of October 8-16.

7.) The GFS looks too cold next week a with trough in the Plains.

Being a meteorologist can be a high pressure job, and many times I realize I put myself into the position of pressure by some things I say. But I say them after studying a situation, and over the years, it has been a big exercise in the value of hard work and faith. But to me, there is no more high pressure a forecast than one that you make for your son and/or daughter, and then have them go into school and let them relay it. If you want to know what makes me nervous in this field, that takes the cake. Rare is the day when I say, win or lose, I did not give everything I had, but when you let your kids down, and in the meantime in the back of your head you are trying to measure up to a dad who told me about the three times I saw snow stick in College Station, Texas, when I was a kid, the day before; I was a big shot in my school for a day. Well, I think any father out there can see what I mean.

Yet another College Station/State College connection, and last year was really deja vu when the PSU offense looked like the A and M offense of the 60s.

Now, it does snow a lot more here in central PA than College Station, Texas. BUT IN OCTOBER, well, the sticking snow here came two times in the last 32 years, October '77 and October 2002 (actually there was a partial event in October '97, too) and that was about the way it was in a regular winter down there. So it's rare here on the valley floor. In any case, me and my big mouth opened it up on Friday to the kids and into school they went, telling everyone it would snow Tuesday. And at 6:50 this morning, when they got up it was still raining.

As I said, a lesson in faith and hard work, a little too overdone, though, since the power outages caused by the 2-3 inches here on trees, and we are in the valley, knocked out power so I couldn't work Tuesday afternoon. However, it was worth it when those two came home, though I wish they would learn to take off their muddy shoes at the door.

In talking to one of my braver comrades who was trying to venture up the mountains around here, he decided that with trees falling, discretion was the better part of valor, and turned around. But the storm has been achieving the forecast snow effects in the high ground and even in the not so high ground, the rain in New England has been meeting its quota (see Boston Doppler), the wind up to Long Island was on target with gusts to 60 reported on the mid-Atlantic coast, but I did overdo the hurricane-force gusts on the Cape that I thought would occur. And I am sure there are places where someone else will say this was hyped too much but, ce'st la vie, I am just happy the power is on and the kids got their snow.

And I guess the power outage got me to ramp up some other things of a higher nature thinking about the misery that is still in areas blasted by the hurricanes. The forecast of such things is not one that makes me nervous, so much as it makes me want to hit it not only for the obvious selfish reasons, but because one does feel that if you make a good forecast, it may benefit the person hearing it. So the pressure there is a different one.

While I believe this trough, though not perfect as the Hazel situation in 1954 as far as phasing and absorbing has snapped the rubber band of major hurricane generation in the Gulf (this is a long and complex idea, based on the meaning of the trough in relation to the overall pattern and the fact it got there in the first place), I don't think we are done with the hurricane season yet. We are simply now back to the more rational development type pattern that can produce a category 1 or perhaps 2 that can threaten but not some megamonster. And yes, I am already beating the drum for that to happen as we see energy piling into the western Caribbean in the classic late-season style with the old front in there, wave number one coming along and another about 72-96 hours away to pile in. I think a strong trough will buckle into Ohio Valley by the middle of next week and chances are another Florida threat and perhaps up the East Coast are in the making.

The large-scale pattern though is not a cold one once to next week, even with trough enhancement in the East. The ridge in the west has energy coming through, there is no blocking and so the trough digs and leaves and there is just Pacific air to flood the nation. The big thing about next week is most of the nation is mild and it's going to warm up over the East even with the trough compared to this week, and another major wet weather event may be on the way, with the tropics involved.

While the warming starts on the Plains this weekend it is retarded over the east by the last in the series of trofs to rotate through with the influence of the block. Many areas that are seeing snow now will see it again Thursday and Thursday, though in a much more benign form of instability rather than small nuclear devices that bombed away today. Flakes holding hands like these did would stick on roads even in August if given the chance. The coastal development should be far enough offshore so it doesn't raise much of a ruckus and the weekend while warming in the Plains is chilly and dry in the East, although strong east winds over top of my developing Caribbean mischief maker are raising a ruckus for Florida.

The fast jet, and the deamplifying pattern later next next week means wet in the Pacific Northwest with these fronts by dry in the Southwest. The GFS is all over the place in the south though and is dry in the east at 18z, which I think is nonsense the middle and latter part of next week.

A couple more things...while next week buckling does not have the needed blocking for widespread chill one can see the start of the next cycle that can lead to blocking that can start raising a ruckus after Nov. 10. Again all one need do is go back to long range guidance for this period from a week to 10 days ago, see how the period is turning out against what was implied by such things, to see how important that factor will be. Model means over the states are only as good as the entire pattern around them.

There is a climate conference going on here at Penn State and I simply have no time to get over there given the situation I am in. Doctor Bill Gray spoke today, and it saddens me to realize I couldn't stop over to meet him (I actually met him before) as his work in setting up some of the things I do is invaluable. In fact, I think the work is more important than the result of the work because it opens up so many more things one can do off it.

In any case, it was a late post, I know that, but I was a victim of my own forecast here, as the trees down and the power outages came a calling in my neighborhood. Funny thing...on the way to taking the kids to their gymnastics and karate classes, they were in a contest to count how may trees they could spot with broken branches, yet another way of them ramping up the noise level by competing.

Hmmm, noisy and competitive. Must have gotten it from their mother, not me.

Ciao for now.