AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi’s 2006 Summer Forecast calls for a near-normal season in the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest, but the summer will be hot and dry across most of the southern United States.

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The 2006 AccuWeather.com Summer Forecast

NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST

Bastardi is forecasting that there will not be a repeat of the summer of 2005 across the Northeast, when temperatures across the Northeast averaged 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

Warm air pushing northeast from Texas and the Southern Plains will help to fuel a “combative pattern” that will lead to above normal precipitation in the Northeast, along with an above normal threat of severe weather across the region.

Bastardi’s research indicates that this spring is similar to the spring seasons in 1954 and 1985, when there was a northwest flow over the Northeast during the months of June and July. During the spring of 1985, there was a major tornado outbreak over Ohio, Pennsylvania, Western New York and Southern Ontario.

The expected spring rainfall will help to blunt the warmth as summer arrives; however, Bastardi feels this summer will mirror the past several summers, when temperatures were relative to normal in the latter half of the season.

DRY AND DANGEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTH

Bastardi’s forecast of a hot, dry summer across the southern Plains, the interior Southwest and the Carolinas is not good news for residents and wildland firefighters.

In the first four and a half months of 2006, more than two million acres across the U.S. were burned by wildfires, and Bastardi’s forecast sets the stage for a busy summer wildfire season.

One of the biggest factors that will influence the severity of the wildfires this summer is the amount of vegetation that can provide fuel for the fires. In past eras, drought conditions and agricultural practices would create conditions similar to those experienced during the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s.

Today, land management procedures and agriculture methods have resulted in better irrigation techniques that keep the crops growing during drought conditions. However, those crops and grasses can dry out to the point that they become a readily available fuel to spark wildfire activity.

Along with the increased wildfire danger, the end-result of a drought across this region would be an increase in the number of cases of water rights issues.

The other area that could be a flashpoint for wildfires is California. While that may be difficult to comprehend considering the amount of rain that has fallen on the Golden State during April, the fact is that the rain helps the growth of brush and crops that will dry out once the rainy season ends.

Bastardi also feels that if the dry spring continues into summer in the Carolinas, it will lead to a busier-than-normal wildfire season during the summer months.

NORTHWEST ROLLER COASTER RIDE

Bastardi admits he faced a tough task forecasting the summer weather pattern in the Pacific Northwest. The back and forth nature of the West Coast ridge and trough will result in larger-than-normal temperature swings as heat from the interior Northwest tries to push west to the coast.

Bastardi offers the reminder that the combination of a trough close to the West Coast and major heat on the southern Plains will often push the trough back and forth, resulting in large temperature swings in coastal areas.

THE HURRICANE FACTOR

Bastardi will release his 2006 Hurricane Forecast in May; however, he issued a report in March that expressed his concern that a major hurricane could strike the Northeast within the next decade, and he is worried that it could strike as early as this year.

Since the release of that report, additional research for the preseason forecast has also identified a potential target for early-season hurricane activity.

Keep in mind that the same factors that raise Bastardi’s concerns regarding a major Northeast hurricane also mean that other areas of the East Coast could also experience an elevated threat of hurricane activity during 2006.

The 2006 Summer Temperature and Precipitation Outlook