AccuWeather.com 2009 Hurricane Forecast
Posted 2009-06-01
By Joe
Bastardi
AccuWeather.com
Bastardi Calls for a Below Average Number of Hurricanes;
U.S. Coast Still at Risk
Despite the formation of a tropical depression off the East Coast last week, today marks the official start to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The season lasts until November 30, during which time the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster
Joe Bastardi, is calling for a reduced overall number of storms. Bastardi warns
that the East Coast of the U.S. could still be at risk of a major landfalling storm.
"As we predicted in our early season forecast, we're anticipating a major reduction in the number of overall storms compared to last year. Levels may
be as low as 2006 or perhaps lower. However, we expect three storms to deal at least tropical-storm-force winds to the U.S. coast, two of which
could be hurricanes, and perhaps one major hurricane," Bastardi said "Despite the reduced number of storms, we still have the possibility of a major
event that could stick out like a sore thumb...which could cause a lot of pain for some people. After all, if you live or have a business in an area
struck by a hurricane it will feel like an active season for you, no matter what the overall numbers say!"
Bastardi points to several factors that are influencing the forecast and lowering the overall number of storms, including:
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A reverse to a weak El Niño, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is most likely in the middle to latter
part of the hurricane season. Bastardi commented that this is not the single dominant factor but works hand in hand with other suppressive factors.
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Higher pressure in much of the subtropical Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last year. This will result in increased dust and dry air
being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate. The added dry air and increased wind shear will tend to inhibit
hurricane formation.
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Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic, a typical breeding ground for hurricanes, can reduce hurricane activity and intensity. This
may create a season in which storms are reaching intensity farther north and east than last year, leading to less impact in the Caribbean areas hit
hard last year.
Though the forecast number of hurricanes is expected to be below normal, the area in which they can impact the United States has expanded in
comparison to previous years. The larger potential
area of impact could make it more difficult for businesses and government agencies to proactively prepare and allocate resources for the upcoming
2009 hurricane season. This could result in an increased financial burden on government agencies and businesses that are unprepared in the event of a
landfalling hurricane.
"Our forecast last year emphasized a close congregation of tracks near the Bahamas. This year, we have the opposite of that classic development. The
tracks are spread out, more in the Atlantic north of 25 degrees north latitude, roughly between Key West and the tip of Florida," Bastardi said.
"Anywhere along the United States coast is susceptible to an impact, but the Texas coast early in the season and East Coast from
Carolinas northward during the heart of the season are areas that have us
worried."
Bastardi and his team have made the following revised forecasts for overall numbers and types of storms during the 2009 season. These totals are
shown alongside 2008 storm totals for the sake of contrast.
| | 2008 | 2009 |
| TOTAL STORMS | 16 | 10 |
| Hurricanes | 8 | 6 |
| Major Hurricanes | 5 | 2 |
| IMPACT ON U.S.COAST | 8 | 3 |
| Hurricanes | 4 | 2 |
| Major Hurricanes | 0 | 0 to 1 |
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