AccuWeather.com has done extensive research into whether the weather is playing a role in the number of home runs at the new Yankee Stadium. We concluded that this weekend's games with the Phillies helped determine the outcome of this summer's home run derby at Yankee Stadium. The weather this past weekend was warm and a bit humid, typical summer weather for New York City.
Our findings show that the weather conditions at Yankee Stadium have opposed the number of home runs being hit at the stadium. Winds really have not been a factor, given that in most games, winds were not all that strong. In most games, winds were under 10 mph, and the direction of the wind was not consistent with the right field home run theory.
In respect to the temperature and humidity, and the laws of baseball flight, the number of home runs should be down, assuming the use of an ideal baseball. The laws of baseball flight say that a baseball will fly a longer distance in air that is warm and humid. Air that is warm and humid is considerably less dense than air that is cool and dry. The resistance on a baseball is greater in dense air than less-dense air. For example, a typical warm, humid New York evening would generally mean a better chance for home runs than, say, the cool evenings of April.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott, this theory works if you assume an ideal, or elastic, baseball is being used. In reality, baseballs tend not to be ideal, as they absorb atmospheric constituents, such as water vapor, of their surrounding environment. Humidity affects the elasticity of a baseball, making it less likely to travel as far after collision with a bat if the ball has been sitting in a humid environment prior to the game.
In other words, the degree to which a ball will fly off the bat and ultimately how far that ball will travel is influenced by how much moisture that ball has absorbed from its surroundings. Thus there is a great deal of physics behind the distance that a ball will travel in a particular environment that makes this determination quite complicated!
However, AccuWeather.com's findings have shown that in most of the games in which home runs where hit, the temperatures were between 54 and 69 degrees. The few games where temperatures were in the 70s, the air was dry. In all games, the air overall was dense compared to the warm, humid air that is yet to come.
UPDATE: Sunday afternoon's game featured 1 home run for the Yankees. Temperatures were in the lower 80s. Humidity levels were moderate.
We can conclude from the weather data that the number of home runs should go up this summer. AccuWeather.com is already predicting higher-than-normal humidity in the New York City area this summer, which means the home run derby should continue at Yankee Stadium.
The reason for the number of home runs at the new Yankee Stadium is still out for debate, but one thing is sure, the weather may not be the entire factor. Maybe it is due to the dimensions of the field, the height of the fences in the outfield, the quality of hitters, or the quality of the pitching (or lack thereof).
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