AccuWeather.com 2009 Hurricane Forecast
Posted 2009-03-17
AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi Forecasts
Fewer U.S. Landfalls this Atlantic Hurricane Season
Fewer Named Storms than Recent Years May be Welcome News,
Major Landfalling Hurricane is Still Possible
AccuWeather.com
Joe Bastardi
AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi has released an early hurricane season forecast for 2009 that calls for fewer
landfalls in the United States, as well as a lower overall number of named storms. However, storms may be more likely to form in the Atlantic Basin
closer to the coast and the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. cannot be ruled out.
"This year
takes one major hurricane hitting a highly populated area to have devastating impact."
"Early indications show a reduction in the overall number of named storms and of major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin compared to last year, but
the number of storms should still be near or a little above normal."
Bastardi points to several factors influencing the forecast, including:
1. The weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean will dissipate. A reverse to a weak El Nino, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the
Atlantic, is most likely in the middle to latter part of the hurricane season.
2. The expected orientation of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last
year. This will result in increased dust and dry air being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate.
3. Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic, a typical breeding ground for hurricanes, which can reduce hurricane activity and
intensity. This may create a season in which storms are reaching a greater intensity farther north and east than last year, leading to less impact in
the Caribbean areas hit hard last year.
4. A continuing multi-decadal pattern of higher-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic, raising the chance of major storms near the East
Coast until about 2020.
Based on these and other considerations, Bastardi has made the following specific forecasts for overall numbers and types of storms during the 2009
season as seen on the image above.
Joe Bastardi regularly writes for the AccuWeather.com Professional site, AccuWeather.com Energy Pro, and for private clients.
See the entire interview with Joe Bastardi.
Video En Español
Part 1 Hurricane Season 2009 - The
factors and Joe's intensity scale.
Part 2 Hurricane Season 2009 - The
Analog years and Impacts on the Gulf Coast
Part 3 Hurricane Season 2009 -
Global Warming and the hurricane relationship
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