Double Danger for the US?
There is no question that Gustav will be a destructive hurricane by the time it reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week. The question remains, will Hanna bring more destruction by late next week?

The specter of Gustav and the danger it poses to the Gulf Coast grows today as the nation marks the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, regarded as one of the most destructive natural disasters in U.S. history.

As Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet explained, "This storm will be destructive. Where it goes will determine whether it knocks down trees and floods bayous, or whether it destroys communities."

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports Gustav will strengthen into a hurricane today as it moves away from Jamaica.

Gustav could reach Category 3 strength as it tracks over the Cayman Islands Saturday and could become even stronger as it churns through the Gulf of Mexico.

The current forecast takes the eye of Gustav into the coast of Louisiana, west of the Mississippi Delta, by early Tuesday. However, all interests along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to South Texas should monitor Gustav and prepare accordingly.

If the center of the storm moves over southwestern Louisiana, there will be less of a storm surge into Lake Ponchartrain. However, the track to the west of New Orleans will test the levees that were breached during Katrina with powerful winds and heavy rain.

Federal, state and local officials are vowing that Gustav will not be a repeat of Katrina. The governors of Louisiana and Texas have issued disaster declarations in their states, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour on Thursday declared a state of emergency.

At a press conference late Thursday, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said a phased evacuation of coastal areas could begin today. Contraflow, using all lanes of major highways to direct traffic away from the areas in the path of the storm, could begin as soon as Saturday.

During an earlier press conference, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said it is likely that he will order a mandatory evacuation, but no sooner than Saturday morning.


The Federal Emergency Management Agency has preposition personnel and supplies across the South,
Work continues on a temporary levee in Harvey, La., Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008. The levee will keep flood waters from the Harvey Canal from getting into homes. The work is being rushed to completion due to the possibility that Hurricane Gustav could make landfall in Louisiana. (AP Photo/Bill Haber)
mindful of the intense criticism leveled at the agency in the wake of Katrina.

FEMA Director R. David Paulison tried to reassure nervous residents that the levees protecting New Orleans are stronger than they were before Katrina. However, he added that dangers remain that make it critical for residents to follow evacuation orders.

Paulison pointed to the havoc caused by Tropical Storm Fay's slow crawl across Florida as evidence of the damage rain alone can cause. "Even if the levees hold, you know there can be serious flooding, " he said.

In addition to the potential destruction on land, Gustav will have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf, as well as refining operations along the Gulf Coast.

Shell and BP are working toward a full evacuation of assets in the Gulf. ExxonMobil has initiated evacuation of nonessential personnel and is "prepared to evacuate remaining personnel from offshore facilities safely in advance of the storm."

Fears of Gustav have caused hikes in global crude prices and wholesale gasoline prices in the Gulf region. Analysts say the storm could send pump prices back over $4 a gallon.

According to Bloomberg News, Gulf Coast states contain 56 operable refineries that account for almost half of the U.S. refining capacity.

Katrina, which reached Category 5 before making landfall as a Category 3 storm, closed 95 percent of offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico. Almost 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity was idled because of damage and blackouts caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.

Gustav will have an impact on agriculture in the Deep South. According to Expert Senior Meteorologist and AccuWeather.com agriculture expert Dale Mohler, if the storm tracks into New Orleans it will be bad news for cotton farmers in the Mississippi Delta.

Crops in the Delta could be spared if the storm makes landfall to the west, and then makes a turn to the west once over land.

While the national focus is on Gustav, AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center forecasters are also monitoring Tropical Storm Hanna. Hanna today is located just over 200 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds estimated at close to 50 mph.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, Hanna will battle against an upper-level low that will eventually dissipate, opening the door for the storm to intensify to hurricane strength.

There are two potential scenarios for Hanna early next week. Energy moving over the Atlantic from the East Coast could absorb the storm, taking it north and eventually out to sea. Sosnowski says under the more likely scenario, Hanna would miss the connection and turn to the west-southwest toward the Bahamas, Florida and Cuba.

There is strong potential that Hanna will move around the bottom of a high pressure area currently over the East, through the Straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could become another major hurricane by late next week.

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