Meteorological Madness
Henry Margusity [Bio] [Email Me]
Friday, November 20, 2009 3:39 PM
It's the Little Things That Computer Models Bring Me

Check out the JMA model for next week. Big storm along the coast with heavy precip in the cold air... Wow, if only that could happen... Understand, the Hype-Meister is on the Snow Train for Next week....




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Friday, November 20, 2009 12:21 PM
GFS Still Has the Snowstorm

You can see on the GFS image below that it continues to show the coastal storm development. As I said before, it's what I am thinking could happen given the NAO going negative and the trough coming into the East...





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Friday, November 20, 2009 9:47 AM
NAO Tanks So Watch the East Coast for a Storm

CONCERNED FOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST THAT COULD PRODUCE SNOW NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


With the NAO going negative and the SOI values going negative, I remain concerned that a storm is going to show up along the East coast late next week. Cold air will be coming in, so my concern is for snow anywhere from northern Virginia and Maryland north to Maine. The GFS shows snow from near Dullas, Va., up to Allentown into the lower Hudson Valley Thursday night into Friday next week. Not sure if that is totally correct, but it's what I am expecting to see happen given the NAO and SOI values.

Also, I do think that after the 1st of December, winter kicks into the East and we are off to the races in regards to snow. Parts of the Great Lakes will see snow next week in the form of snow flurries and squalls as the cold air blasts back in Tuesday.

I am curious to see the 12z run of the GFS to see if it keeps the coastal storm on the maps. I will let you know..

To talk about the storm, please go to our forums.....


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Thursday, November 19, 2009 10:46 AM
Thursday A.M. Video - Updated Video


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Wednesday, November 18, 2009 12:32 PM
Upper Low Kicks Out.. Winter Kicks in Next Week

WE ARE GOING INTO A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN AND ONE THAT SHOULD BRING EAST COAST STORMS AS SOI AND NAO VALUES START DOWN AGAIN...

During the month of October, the SOI Values (Southern Oscillation Index) which is an indicator of El Nino strength had tanked below -20, heavy rain and stormy weather plagued the eastern part of the country. Once the values rose up, the stormy weather stopped with the exception of IDA which came during the time when the SOI values went to +10. We are now seeing the daily SOI values begin to tank again and in addition, the NAO values are predicted to tank next week. All this leads me to believe that we are going into a colder and stormy weather pattern, and one that we need to watch the East coast for storms and perhaps even snow. The first in a series of storms is coming up the coast this weekend with rain and wind again. While not as strong as Ida, it will cause some problems for the beaches from North Carolina through New Jersey.

What is exciting me is the prospects for a major storm after Thanksgiving. The GFS has been eluding to a possible storm, and I see now the other models are also hinting at a storm developing. I think this is only the tip of the iceberg and the start of what we be a wild winter.


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