There are chances of light drizzle or cloudy weather from thursday till friday in Karachi as low presure will form almost close to Mumbai which will then move to Gujarat causing downpours there, under its influence cloudy weather is expected in Karachi, But if there would have no western disturbance then downpour were expected in karachi. But winter rains of karachi will start from mid dec to jan 2010, the average winterfall for karachi is 20mm. Although in 2006 winter 65mm rain occured. Also cyclone hit Karachi in 1960 winter killing 10000..

Dear jim:My message to babar is nobody is showing rain for karachi but forecasters R showing rain for istanbul or damascus to iran/nwfp/afghanistan etc.karachi weather is still hot and dry and you do not about karachi hot and dry weather.you please come to karachi and see

Pls what is your forecast for saudi arabia for the next 2 weeks.

thank you

Reply:

Dear Mr Albosaily,

I would look for widely-separated showers and thunderstorms on a few days over the northwestern half of KSA. This would be for the half lying to the north and west of Riyadh, which would include Jiddah and Makkah.

Note that most of the area would actually not get any of this hit-or-miss rain, if my forecast be right.

Jim

The northeast monsoon 'dry season'lasting from Nov ~ Apr has arrived over most of northern Asia. This is the start of the dry season over Mongolia, China, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, west coat of Peninsula Malaysia.

However, it will bring heavy rain to Indonesia, Singapore, southeast coast of Thailand, east coast of Malaysia.

The first-half of the northast monsoon will be dry and cool, the second-half hot and dry (ie Thailand). Up north in NE Siberia's (asiatic-Russia) 'pole of cold' region, its frigid wih lows of -44C currently; in Mongolia's northern mountain taiga, its -34C currently, etc.

Reply:

Thank you for the insight, Glen.

Jim

Hello Jim,

Please let us know the shape of things for the Indian east coast. I see COLA predicts heavy rains along the south east coast of India with rains forging way into the peninsula? Will that be a reality for Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

Please let us know when you would post your next comment

Thanks
sid

Reply,

Hi Siddharth,

A few thoughts on this with the latest post.

Jim

Interesting one week coming up. Atleast one weather forecast mentiones the developing Low Pressure in the south eastern Arabian Sea to creep upto Mumbai !! Wont that be interesting and happy news for the water starved Mumbai. Initial prediction of a cyclone in the making now scaled down to a low pressure. Likely landfall at Mumbai around Nov 11th.

Reply:

As of the 9th, it is still looking this way, Mohan.

Jim

Some satellites are showing thunderstorms for karachi on 13th friday coming from north east direction.

Hi Jim, we all know you being a professional must be busy as the bee, i would like to put in a word we all weather buffs looked forward to our queries, i know at times some of them being vague. My only request is it will be wonderful if you could just answer in one word as of the time in case you are busy,pre ocuppied,commitments,vacation.Looking forward for your postings. Anuj Arora

Hi Jim,
A little off topic, but did you see the cold front making it into Thailand with the dew point in Bangkok dropping below 60 degrees Fahrenheit. Quite low any time of the year, but for early November I think very unusual. Maybe it is a harbinger to come for the coming winter, as Bangkok dropped last January into the high 50s at night. Any thoughts?
Patrick

Reply:

Patrick,

I do not know the climatological history, with respect to dewpoint, of Bangkok, but it also strikes me as low for early November, at least. This dry shot was tied to a freshening of the NE Monsoon that followed a quick cold shot over East Asia. Maybe you will recall the early snowstorm in Beijing.

Jim

Dear jim,Please define any reason that why still weather is hot over karachi and there is no name of clouds/rains?

Hi Jim
Welcome back your views on NE Monsoon interesting we here at chennai waiting for the much awaited NE Monsoon this season hope it will not let us down cos it has been a hot & humid until October 28th when we had some welcome rain the temp here is much cooler than what it was ten days back

Ramesh

Dear jim:Bay of bengal still has lowest pressure over chennai side and GFS 15 days is showing there heavy rain.Any reason?

Welcome Back!

Welcome back Jim.

Hello Jim, my query is that does the presence of a strong NE monsoon trough on the sub continent affects the Western disturbances presence in our region ie nothern India ? thanks and regards, Anuj Arora

Hey Jim,
How are you? Great to see you again here! Really missed your blog. Anyhow, some update from Pakistan:
Temperatures have finally dipped into the negative i n the northern parts, and night time temperatures have comparatively been cooler while Karachi's in for another i guess heatwave: it was 38 yesterday, and again another 38 today! Apart from that the UAE recieved rain on Thursday I am guessing, there were some sharp thunder showers in the region ... I read about it in the Gulf News Newspaper.

Anyways, a few questions if you don't mind :))):
I have read alot about weather systems crossing Eurasia which normally dip further south during the winter season bringing in rainy weather .. how come they are not able to produce heavy amounts of rainfall in the middle east gulf, I mean they have warm weather plus a water body over there specially in the summer, when the temperatures and humidity are usually quite high in that region .. and how come the southwest monsoon winds dry up, albeit the fact that the arabian sea as a charger is present?
And while weather systems are passing by from the north, they do spark of isolated thunderstorms in lower sindh, and towards eastern makran .. and they also pull moisture from the arabian sea .. how come the moisture also fails to produce rain here in the coastal areas, though it does get quite windy and the weather does get pleasent ..
the action of these weather systems only becomes prominent here in Karachi either during the winter months, or if there is a monsoon low present over Sindh .. like the one in late August, a weakening low pressure managed to produce 140 mm of rain, aided by the weather system .. and one last question, how is this interaction able to produce such hefty amounts of rain?
I hope you will answer my queries and thank you!
Take care
Asad

Welcome back Jim,

But do you go with GFS prediction, which shows precipitation starting 28~29 Oct. I personally don't see any signs of that. I see some sort of westerly disturbance clearing off everything that was persisting near Andaman, Indonesia and to the east of that. But the Mean Sea Temperature seems to be favorable for the rains along the Tamilnadu Coast.

Our borewells at 300 Feet depth has lost their yields (because of very poor or negligible south west monsoon rains in tamilnadu) If this Monsoon fails, entire chennai will have to start purchasing water from neighbouring districts starting November(which they typically do from April - June).

My Air conditioner has been running since Jan 2009, I thought I can switch it off atleast for 2 months ( Nov and Dec), but it looks like going forward we may need Air conditioners through out the year. Its sweating so much these days at this time of the year, and this is bizzare

I guess Tamilnadu and NE monsoon might need a special computer model for forecasting. GFS, MJO, Elnino/Lanino etc., won't work. There's something beyond that...

Eagerly waiting for Water,

Vasanth

Hi Jim,

You are right. We used to see rains +/- two days of 20th October. But this time, although the NE winds set in around 12th instant, we are yet to see rains. There are some scattered clouds and middle of this month, we experienced chillness. Now it is warm with strong NE winds. We are expecting a Easterlies to hit by end of this week( that is what BBC, IMD deliberates on their websites). As Tamilnadu depends mainly on NE monsoon than SW monsoon, lack or meagre rain will have a great impact on the water supply position of Chennai and major towns and already crops have started to fail due to delayed monsoon. We hope IMD & BBC prediction on rain doesn't become a astrological prediction.