It is an old saying, which I guess is pretty self explanatory, I tried looking back at the history of this common phrase, but the internet became a political minefield, so I relented to common sense.

This month Belfast has already received 3.36" of rain--the average for the month being 2.80". In just 11 days it has seen the entire month's worth of rainfall. It seems there has been one storm after another hitting the British Isles and moving through Europe, causing chaos.

London has had 1.15" so far this month, but it only received 1.15" in the whole month of October, so I think the picture has been painted as to how wet it has been so far in November.

A low pressure system will certainly pound the British Isles into the weekend, and Derry in Ireland will see a wintry mix of snow and rain, not accumulative. Sadly, there is another system hot on its heels, so it will not be a good weekend for outdoor plans for many.

France, Spain and Germany, along with parts of Scandinavia, will be in the line of fire as these storms push through, but for Southern Europe, the heavy moisture will head North... at last, a silver lining.

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A mudslide struck a volcanic island on Tuesday in the Gulf of Naples, burying a town and killing a 15-year-old girl. Tragedy struck on the island of Ischia, leaving one dead and an 11-year-old girl still missing, according to the Italian news agency ANSA. The dead 15-year-old was a passenger in a bus that was swept out to sea.

Casamicciola, a port on the north end of the island, was inundated with mud flowing from Mount Epomeo.

Mayor Vincenzo D'Ambrosio, described it as being like "the end of the world." "A river of dirt and rocks flooded the entire town," he said. Twenty people were injured, and one person remains in a serious condition.

Rescuers coordinate operations on the island of Ischia, Southern Italy, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009, after a mudslide unleashed by heavy rain, caused at least the death of a 15-year-old girl who was trapped in a car and drowned when it was submerged. A number of people were injured. (AP Photo/Salvatore Laporta)

Earlier this year, a mudslide in Messina on the island of Sicily killed 37 people and forced hundreds from their homes. Illegal construction and inadequate flood prevention in the region was highly criticized.

Throughout the last two weeks there have been several potent storms moving through the British Isles and into southern Europe

The constant heavy rain was certainly a contributing factor to the mudslide.

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Thank you all for your questions regarding the winter forecast in Europe, our long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi has kindly answered your questions.... read on

Snow in Tirana, Albania....is not a common occurrence. The average temperature in January, the coldest month, is 6c which is, in part, due to how close you are to the Adriatic Sea and in part to the lower elevation. To get it to snow, you will need very cold air charging in from the northeast as a storm moves by you to your south. Given you need weather systems in a small scale to merge properly for it to snow means really long-range predictions of it are difficult.

Continuing in Albania, if there were ever the year to look for it, this might be the one, with below-normal temperatures and slightly above-normal precipitation expected. However, I believe the coldest of the weather, relative to normal, will be well to your north.

Many of you asked about the winter generally across Europe.

A warm pattern for winter in Europe may very well point to below-normal precipitation, although there are many other factors to consider. However, I believe it will be a colder-than-normal winter across much of Europe. The winter season is considered December through February and the forecast is for above-normal precipitation in the south-central Mediterranean region.

As for November, sign up for the Accuweather.com Pro site, for daily updates on Europe.

The winter forecast calls for weather patterns that will produce a harder-than-normal winter in much of Europe with below-normal temperatures combined with a jet stream pattern that will bring wetter-than-normal weather for southern and eastern Europe. I am not sure what the air pressure numbers are you cited, but certainly the area from the Alps eastward that you outlined will probably have the greatest chance for higher-than-normal snowfall.

Bucharest will turn out with a warmer-than-normal November, but cold air will move in during December accompanied by more storminess than normal for January and February. The net result will be a colder-than-normal winter....the coldest since the winter of 2002-2003, when temperatures dropped below –15c each month and below –25c one morning.

The average temperature that season was nearly 3c below normal. I will point out that November 2002 was warmer than normal as well. There was snow every month that winter season with a total of 78 cm December through February and another 19 cm in March and April.

This October actually had precipitation near normal across much of Portugal, but temperatures were well above normal. It is a little too early to worry about November just yet. I still think the pattern will bring a greater amount of storminess. In many areas, the 2002-2003 season stands out as one that may be similar to this winter. That winter started with significantly above-normal rainfall in October and November with the above-normal precipitation continuing each of the following three winter months. Keep the faith, it still looks like a winter with above-normal precipitation starting in December. However, it may not be all that cold.

For more information on Europe follow Bastardi's Blog

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Raychel

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Thank you for all your questions concerning the European Winter Forecast... your answers will be published next week.

There are several concerns as we head into the weekend for Europe, as it looks like we will be facing another round of strong storms. This week alone has brought major cleanup efforts to Scotland, with travel affected and damage to homes estimated into the thousands, and the next five-day outlook does not look good. Let's hope the computer models are wrong! Well, it won't be the first time; let's face it.

More heavy rain could be a big problem for the regions in Scotland already affected.

Friday evening, the first storm will push through the British Isles, whilst parts of Italy are still dealing with the last front which shows to bring significant rain according to the GFS. The heavier of the rain will push through the British Isles, impacting France and Spain, and bringing isolated showers to Germany.

Looking ahead into next week which, to be honest, is something I regret now, as I can bring you no good news.

Remembrance Sunday is a tough call; it looks unsettled for much of the UK, but showers should be through London by midday, for the services at the cenotaph. Sadly, it will be cold.

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With winter fast approaching, it has come to the time when we need to look at the predictions ahead for the European winter season.

Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi has given me a taste of what's to come and all week I will put to him your questions and concerns about the upcoming season. So drop me a line and your questions will be answered in this week-long discussion.

A blocking pattern over the North Pole will send Arctic highs far enough westward to cause some problems in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. As indicated by the above feature, normal rainfall is expected across much of the British Isles, normal to the Brits probably means just as wet.

Above normal for much of Spain, Portugal and Southern France as the southern stream will bring moisture off the Atlantic. The Mediterranean has also cooled significantly which is a sign that Southern Europe will be dealing with a colder-than-normal winter, a chilling thought. Germany, extending to eastern parts of Italy will also have above-average rainfall.

For skiers, this winter will be a wonderland as there are many areas throughout Europe that will have above average and well above-average snow.

Even England, Wales and parts of Southern Scotland will have above-average snowfall as a high develops over Scandinavia, a westerly flow with a storm will cut to the south and will bring snow to the southern half of the British Isles.

Just when you thought I must have some good news, the temperatures are not sitting in our favor across Europe.

The center of the cold air, based on Bastardi's predictions, is over central Europe, he says that as the winter progresses it will get colder.

There is good news on the horizon and that is the lead-up to winter will be relatively warm, until the blocking pattern moves in to place.

Although November has not started well, an Indian Summer approaches with the calm before the storm. Bastardi says around late December, the temperatures will start to flip and become very cold.

So what is your question for our long range forecaster?... let me know, we will continue to focus on Europe and the winter this week.

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Raychel

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