I am going to add my two cents in on this rather volatile discussion of what the emails hacked from climate scientist may, or may not, mean.

I am not going to go as far as saying that this is the smoking gun that what these scientist have been proclaiming for a long time is totally wrong. I will say that this means that there should be a HARD look at their studies and many questions need to be asked. I would go as far as saying that there should be some sort of panel set up of UNBIASED people to glean through all the emails, to question each scientist and try to come up with the real truth. Whether this is done within the scientific community, or perhaps a Federal Government committee, it does not matter to me. This debate should not end here however, with random talking about the truths and context of the emails from these scientist. There are legitimate concerns about the validity of some of the research. A full investigation is what is needed.

Would I be shocked if some of the data in studies have been doctored to make them look better for one side? Of course I wouldnt. Heck this happens all the time in any study or poll. When dealing with statistics it is rather easy to fudge numbers in whatever direction you want them to point. Lets face it there are a lot of scientist that rely on their studying of this hot topic subject for their income. That some would want the numbers to come out one way over another to keep funding coming is not that big of a stretch.

But do I know this has happened. No. Do I think we should take a hard look at this now before we commit to any further global agreements that could affect our economy? Absolutely.

Will any of what I am asking be done? I don’t have high hopes. The freight train of man-made global warming has had a full head of steam going for a long time and it is a heavy train that will be hard to stop. There are too many people high in government and the scientific community that have a lot invested in man-made global warming.

I have had held a healthy skepticism about how much man has contributed to global warming for a long time. Before you start writing angry letters at me about this statement read what I said again. I have held a HEALTHY SKEPTICISM about how much man has contributed to global warming. That means I have an open mind, always a good thing. There have been studies done by some scientist that have raised question as to how much man has contributed to global warming. Studies done by very reputable scientist too. But these do not get nearly the press as the other side.

My skepticism has been tweaked some more with the release of the emails. I just hope that all this will not be swept under the carpet but be truly looked at. There is too much riding on this, specifically the economy of this country. In a time of an already bad economy and high unemployment we, as a nation, need to be concerned about blindly signing on to treaties that others in the World want us to.

This is a topic that can emote very rabid debate. I just urge everyone to keep well informed on both sides of the issue and debate with civil tongues.

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Though I have said on at least a couple of occasions in the last few weeks that it is not uncommon in an El Nino pattern for a dry fall season in the Southwest, I still get some emails about this. Well, what I am about to write about will certainly bring more wringing of hands and grinding of teeth. Sorry about that folks.

The weather pattern for the next week to 10 days looks bone dry for central and Southern California and Arizona. There is currently a ridge in place that holds into Thanksgiving Day. Spectacular weather (unless you want rain) is likely with clear nights and sunny days. Temperatures will run at, or slightly above, normal by day in the deserts of California and across Arizona. They will run well above normal due to offshore flow in southwest California and along the south-central coast. Many places just inland from the beaches will be near 80 to the middle 80s Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day. Santa Ana winds of 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 are likely through Wednesday in the usual places.

One other area that will be the exception for the sunny weather through Thursday will be in the Central Valley of California and especially the San Joaquin Valley. Late night and morning low clouds and fog are likely each day and in some cases, like today, may be slow to clear as the moist and cool air is trapped near the Valley floor. The clouds and fog will cut down on the sun and cool air trapped near the ground will keep temperatures at or below normal.

A cold front will move through California on Friday but should bring rain no farther south than parts of the Bay Area to Sacramento. The front will likely cool off southwest California. The deserts of Southern California and all of Arizona will stay dry Friday and Saturday, but will be be breezy and cooler Saturday.

There is potential for a strong short wave to move south into northern Arizona Sunday, perhaps sparking a snow shower chance in the mountains. However, there will be no rain elsewhere. Following this trough will come another ridge building in next week that holds for much of the week. There may also be another round of Santa Ana winds in Southern California Sunday through Monday with the chance of stronger winds than with the current Santa Ana winds.

One thing you should take away from all of this is the vast majority of central and Southern California, southern Nevada and Arizona will see little, if any, precipitation for a long time to come. But I will say this one more time...as for El Nino, have patience as we are a long way off from having to panic that the rain that is expected is not going to happen. At some point we may want to be concerned, but it is not in November.

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An important week of travel, food, and shopping coming up next week, and the weather can play a role in all of this. So I thought I would give everyone a peek ahead as to what to expect next week. I will do it by region to make it as simple as possible.

In general, after a stormy week in the Northwest the weather pattern for much of next week is looking much more tranquil.

Northwest:

A much more tranquil weather pattern for all of next week than this area had all of this week. While it won't be totally rain-free, there will be not be the heavy rain of this week. A warm front/cold front combination moves into Washington state Monday/Monday night with rain at times, with perhaps a couple of showers in eastern Washington. Northwestern Oregon could have a little rain at the same time, but the rest of Oregon should be rain-free.

Tuesday and Wednesday, much of the Northwest will be rain-free. The exception will be northwestern Washington where a warm front later Tuesday could bring a little rain and a cold front Wednesday does the same. Thanksgiving looks to be the wettest day over the largest area with rain likely in much of western Washington and Oregon and some showers in eastern sections of these states. For the big shopping day Friday, a couple of showers can linger for a time over eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon with most of the time elsewhere being rain-free.

California and the Southwest:

With the jet stream doing the hasty retreat to the north, the first half of the week will be absolutely rain-free in this area. To go along with that most of the area will be sunny as well. Temperatures will average above normal except much above normal in southwestern California where offshore flow each day causes temperatures in then low to middle 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday in the warmest places. The cold front moving into the Northwest Thursday will also probably bring some rain into northern most California but the remainder of California and the Southwest will be dry. And for Fridays shopping frenzy dry, mild weather is likely.

Central Great Basin:

High pressure is mostly in control Monday through Thanksgiving providing dry, but chilly weather with temperatures averaging a little below normal. Friday, expect cool shopping conditions with perhaps a rain or snow shower in northern Utah and a few showers of rain and snow in Idaho. But the rest of the central Great Basin will be dry.

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With all the storms this week in the Northwest, and the lack of rainfall in the Southwest so far this fall, there is increasing angst among some of my readers about the validity of my winter forecast for at, or above, normal rainfall and the reality of El Nino conditions. I have had a number of comments on the blogs about this along with email. There is even a story about this on AccuWeather.com today.

I actually talked about this very subject not very long ago on Nov. 2. I guess it either was missed by some or it hasn’t calmed the fears. So once again I am going to calm those fears.

In the latest ENSO discussion released by the Climate Prediction Center on Nov. 16, there is increasing evidence that El Nino is actually intensifying over the last several weeks. Here is the latest sea surface temperature anomalies. Notice that we now have a couple of areas of 2+ degrees Celsius above normal between 175 east and 140 west, that is an increase from a month ago.

In fact, here is the progression by weeks in the anomalies since Oct. 21. Sea surface temperature anomalies have strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific.

In addition to sea surface temperature increases, sub-surface temperatures have also been increasing.

The following is a graph of all the computer models showing the El Nino conditions are expected through the winter of 2009-2010 with most of the models have sea surface temperature anomalies of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius. The peak is mostly in the December to February time period.

It is not uncommon that this early in the winter in an El Nino year the Southwest still has not moved into a stormy pattern. I again urge you to read my Nov. 2 posting about a specific example of this only a few years ago.

I am sticking with my initial winter forecast issued early in October. There is no evidence to change it and if anything there is increased evidence supporting my forecast. Give time for winter weather to really set in across the south. This is only mid-November. The rainiest part of the season is not until late December into March. Have some patience and give the weather pattern a chance.

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As I pointed out in yesterday's posting, a series of storms, some strong, will be affecting the Northwest states all week long. Here are some of the heavier rainfall amounts for the past 48 hours as of 11 a.m. Tuesday for western Washington.

Jefferson Creek - 2.27
Bremerton - 10.02
Gold Hill - 6.50
Humptullips - 6.40
Black Knob - 6.20
Hozomeen - 5.53
Quilcene - 5.37
Johnson Bridge - 5.25
Port Angeles - 3.23
Shelton - 3.31
Hoquiam - 2.97
Chehalis - 2.46

The hardest hit area has been, and will continue to be, western Washington. Already, some rivers are near flood stage to as bad as bringing major flooding. From NOAA, here were the river stages across Western Washington as of late morning Tuesday.

With additional rainfall likely over the next 48 hours, the heaviest coming later tomorrow night and Thursday, conditions on area rivers will not improve and in some cases will get worse. Here also from NOAA are the predicted river stages within the next 48 hours.

Not only area rivers will be impacted but also smaller streams will get quicker rises and falls as precipitation comes and goes. The other danger will continue to be from already saturated ground moving and causing mudslides. These have already occurred and more are likely.

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