
Image credit: Navy Research Lab Monterey -- NRLMRY
--Typhoon Melor in making its last dash for southern Japan. Latest word from the JTWC has Melor ranked as a Category 1 storm; however, the JMA still have Category 2 status for the typhoon.
It is clear to me that transformation from true tropical to extra tropical in nature on the part of Melor has begun based upon the asymmetry of its cloud shield. Moreover, surface air temperature and dew point over southern Japan is too low to qualify as tropical.
At the time of the above satellite shot (Wednesday night, local time), the storm center was plotted directly south of the Kii Peninsula on southernmost Honshu Island. Latest JTWC and JMA movement was northeastward at 25 knots/45 kph. Meaning that landfall over southern Honshu will happen within a few hours after this posting.
The relative coolness of air over Japan suggests to me than Melor will track somewhat to the right of that indicated by the aforesaid agencies, but I believe more likely north and west of Tokyo. The answer will be known within several hours, one way or another.
This storm is going to pour 10-20 cm of rain over much of Japan, the far southwest and far north being the primary exceptions. Amounts above 30 cm, maybe even 50 cm, will happen in southern Honshu. The area of Owase on the southeast-facing Kii Peninsula is ideally located for extreme falls of rain in storms like Melor.
Melor will sweep out to sea east of northern Honshu as a tropical storm during Thursday afternoon and evening, local time.
--Tropical Storm Parma has become stuck, all-but dead in the water in and about northern Luzon Island, Philippines. The latest plot of Parma's center had it a bit east of Iligan Point. Weak steering winds that have virtually becalmed Parma will keep it parked in the area of northern Luzon for another day or two.
The latest on Parma has it a minimal tropical storm with 35-knot/65-kph highest sustained winds. Owing to proximity to rugged northern Luzon, Parma is bound to weaken further and lose, at least temporarily, tropical storm status.
-Whether storm or depression, Parma will pose further serious flood threat to northern Luzon, the northwest most of all. This area has seen widespread 30-90 cm falls of rain owing to Parma. At Baguio, 36-hour rainfall ended Wednesday evening, local time, was near 40 cm. Thus, Parma's output in the highland city has reached one meter, or 40 inches.
-Numerical forecast models still show Parma leaving to the west of northern Luzon late in the week. Its forecast track over the open South China Sea could see a return to tropical storm status ahead of a landfall upon south China.
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