Note: I will try to answer the questions in the comment section later tonight.

This is my latest interpretation of the European Long Range Model output for North America that goes out through the third week of December. This model is only released to our in-house computer system each Friday.

Mean pattern for the week of Nov 3-Dec 6

--Temperatures back above-normal over Alaska and precipitation near-normal.
--Colder, but noticeably drier pattern over BC and the Pacific Northwest.
--Dry, but seasonably cold across the southern Prairies.
--Most of the western U.S, including the Rockies colder compared to normal. Much colder than normal over the Southwest and into the southern Rockies.
--Above-normal precipitation from California through the southern and central Rockies. Good for ski country!
--Chilly and wet across the southern Plains.
--Temperatures slightly above-normal with near-normal precipitation over Ontario and Quebec.
--Temperatures close to normal over the eastern U.S., with near to above-normal rainfall.
--Temperatures and precipitation close to normal over Atlantic Canada.

The week of Dec 7-13

--Relatively dry and mild over most of Alaska.
--Possible charge of Arctic air coming southward through the Prairies and into the High Plains of the U.S. Typical upslope snow from Alberta through eastern/central Colorado.
--Precipitation below normal from BC through the Pacific Northwest, but temperatures slightly colder than normal.
--Southern branch storm track suppressed farther south from southern California to the Gulf Coast States and then off the Middle Atlantic Coast. Could lead to some winter precipitation events from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast/Middle Atlantic region.
--Cold pattern over Ontario and Quebec. Dry over the north and near-normal precip. over the south.
--Below-normal temperatures and precipitation over Atlantic Canada.
--Warm over Florida.

The week of Dec 14-20

Looks like a -AO and -NAO type pattern

--Above-normal temperatures from the North Pole to Greenland.
--Stormy over the Aleutians.
--Precipitation and temperatures close to normal over BC and the Pacific Northwest.
--Cold pattern from the Prairies down through the Midsection of the U.S.
--Drier in California.
--Turning stormier over eastern Canada, Northeast U.S. and into the Maritimes. Temperatures near to slightly below-normal.
--Cold over the Great Lakes with some lake-enhanced snowfall.

Have a great weekend!

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The North American pattern change that has been talked about recently is indeed coming, but it will take some time. The pattern will begin to undergo changes starting around the 25th, but the overall reversal of the pattern might take until the 2nd or 3rd of December. To be honest, about 80% of Canada will still be fairly mild by late November standards through the 28th.

The main changes to this pattern will be a turn to milder weather over Alaska, a drier pattern over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and a turn to colder weather over eastern North America, but I do not see any Arctic air getting down into most of southern Canada or the lower 48 anytime before the 1st of the month.

It does appear that the first shot of Arctic air could eventually be directed toward Quebec, Labrador and New Brunswick sometime during the first week of December.

In the meantime..........

--Looks like at least another three storms coming into BC and the Pacific Northwest through next week. Expect more heavy rain and wind at the coast and big snow accumulations in the Cascades, Coastal Range and BC Rockies. Snow levels in SW BC will fall again to 3,000 feet Friday morning then all the way down to 1,000 feet on Saturday as another storm plows inland. Snow levels will go back upward to near 2,000 feet Saturday evening. Whistler has a new November snowfall record already, and by the time this month is over this new record could be one that holds for many decades.

--Expect another round of strong west to southwest winds coming down off the Rockies into the western Prairies Friday night and into Saturday.

--The change from October to November has been incredible across the Prairies. In Calgary, for instance, October 2009 was 3.5 degrees C below normal with an average temperature of +1.5 C.
November, which should normally be much colder than October, is averaging 4.2 C above normal with an average temperature of 2.8 C!!! Seems like we are going backwards in time, doesn't it?

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UPDATE

Whistler/Blackcomb ski area in SW British Columbia just set a new November snowfall record! So far this month, there has been 418 cm or 164 inches of snow on the mountains. 56 cm or 22 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours.

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I wanted to post this yesterday, but I ran out of time. Anyway, this visible satellite image of western Canada, which was taken Tuesday (yesterday), clearly shows how the changing topography across western Canada impacts the weather during a strong southwesterly flow of very moist air.

The satellite image below is a close-up of southern British Columbia and extends into western Alberta.

Keep in mind that there was a strong, southwesterly wind (lower left to upper right) flow across the region.

What do we see?

1. Note the more textured cloud cover over central Vancouver Island (far left) and along the Coastal Range, which runs almost right up along the mainland coast of western British Columbia. These textured clouds indicate higher cloud tops that are producing heavier precipitation. As the southwesterly winds ram up against the higher elevations over central Vancouver Island (Insular Mountains) and again into the Coastal Range, the air is forced to rise, which cools the air particles and leads to condensation, causing precipitation.

These areas received the heaviest precipitation (rain or snow depending on elevation), as they usually do in this situation.

2. Note how the clouds break up over the Strait of Georgia, which is between Vancouver Island and the coast of Mainland British Columbia. Why is that? Well, the air is descending off the higher terrain of interior Vancouver Island and also the Olympic Range of northwestern Washington state. As the air descends, it begins to warm up and dry out, otherwise known as downsloping. These winds can be strong as well, since they are getting a gravitational boost coming down off the higher terrain.

As this air comes back into the higher terrain of the Coastal Range just north and east of Vancouver, it is forced to rise again and the cooling/condensation process starts all over.

3. Note the large area of clear skies and broken clouds over south-central British Columbia. This is the interior plateau, but it is actually a relatively low valley area that extends from Prince George in the north to Kamloops and Kelowna in the south. The air coming into this large valley is descending off the Coastal Range. This region gets much less rain and snow compared to the coast during the year. A totally different climate.

4. As you go farther east, the air runs into the Canadian Rockies and is lifted once again, resulting in widespread snowfall across the mountains.

5. Once you go east into Alberta, the elevations drop quickly as you approach Edmonton and Calgary, and we can see the evidence of that as the cloud shield is sharply cut off along the eastern edge of the mountains. On Tuesday, we had record high temperatures around Edmonton, while very strong, chinook winds (warm and dry) in excess of 100 km/h swept through parts of southern Alberta as the wind really gets a ton of downward momentum coming off the high Rockies and into the prairie.

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Western ski areas getting the snow.......

At Whistler/Blackcomb in British Columbia, the snow levels have dropped to about 2,000 feet at this time but will begin to rise back to 3,000 feet Thursday morning then 3,500 feet by Thursday afternoon as milder air comes in with the next major precipitation producer tonight and through tomorrow. The middle and upper slopes should get dumped on with more snow. So far, there has been 98 cm, or 38 inches, of snow in the past 48 hours at Whistler. There has been 362 cm, or 141 inches, of snow so far this season and we may be headed for a record November monthly snowfall at the resort. Stay tuned!

Other ski areas have been getting snow, but not as much......

Sun Peaks, BC...... 17cm or 6.6 inches past 24 hrs.
Big White, BC....... No new snow, but it is open with good conditions
Sunshine Village, AB......... 14 cm or 6 inches past 24 hrs with 97 cm or 38 inches on the ground.
Lake Louise, AB.......... 12 cm or 5 inches past 24 hrs with 87 cm or 34 inches on the ground.

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We just received the latest monthly long range outlook for North America via the European model. This model updates once a month around the 15th.

Keep in mind, this is not necessarily my forecast, but my interpretation of what this model is showing for a mean pattern during a particular month as we go through the winter. This model is one of several tools I look at to come up with a winter forecast, and I will be issuing the final update of my winter outlook sometime next week.

Based on what I have just looked at, it appears that the model is showing a classic, split-flow jet stream pattern across North America most of the upcoming winter, which is common with El Nino winters.

Mean pattern for the month of December (European model)
--Rather dry and mild pattern over most of western Canada (Yukon, BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan) down into the Pacific Northwest.
--Very cold over far northeastern Canada.
--Above-normal precipitation from Southern California through the Deep South. Temperatures close to normal.
--Dry pattern over Manitoba and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures near normal.
--Precipitation above normal from the eastern Great Lakes (eastern half of Ontario) to the East Coast. Temperatures close to normal.
--Slightly mild with near-normal precipitation over Atlantic Canada.

Mean pattern for January
--Most of western Canada, including the Prairies and BC through the Yukon, down into the Pacific Northwest, looks mild, with below-normal precipitation and snowfall. Well-above-normal temperatures over eastern BC and most of Alberta, including the NW Territories.
--Cold and wet over SW Alaska
--Active storm track from central and Southern California through the southern half of the U.S. and up along the Eastern Seaboard. Most of these areas will see above-normal precipitation, and temperatures close or slightly below-normal.
--Snowy pattern from the interior Middle Atlantic and Northeast U.S up into eastern Quebec and the Maritimes. Equal chances for rain or snow close to the coast and in the major cities as arctic air intrusions would be rare ahead of the storms.
--Very cold pattern over Labrador and cold over Newfoundland.

Mean pattern for February
--Overall, February looks very similar to January, according to the European. I realize that is not what the folks in Vancouver and Whistler want to hear. A couple of minor changes are that the core of the well-above-normal temperatures shifts a little farther to the West and covers most of BC and western Alberta. Also, it looks a little colder (slightly below-normal) from eastern Canada down into the eastern third of the U.S. with more intense storms coming up through the East or just off the coast and up into Atlantic Canada. Could be a snowy month from the Appalachians to just inland from the Northeast U.S. coast and then up into eastern Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick.

Mean pattern for March

--Above- to well-above-normal temperatures from northern Canada down through the western half of Canada, including the Pacific Northwest.
--Precipitation close to normal over western BC, but below-normal snowfall over the rest of western Canada, including most of the Prairies.
--Active storm track across the southern U.S. again, and then up along the Eastern Seaboard.
--Above-normal rain and snow along the East Coast and into the coastal Maritimes. Plenty of snow from the Appalachians up into eastern Ontario, Quebec, New England and New Brunswick.

In closing... Based on this model alone, we would expect a pretty good ski season over the Appalachians from North Carolina and Virginia up through eastern Quebec and from the Sierra Range through the southern Rockies. Ski areas out in western Canada would end up with much less snow compared to normal. Hopefully, the stormy pattern going on as we speak out West will translate into a well established base of snow that can carry through the winter.

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West keeps getting slammed with rain and wind...

BC and western Washington will continue to get pounded with heavy precipitation through the week. It looks like there will be three more Pacific fronts coming in through Thursday, which will be loaded with moisture. Ski areas over the coastal range and into the Rockies of BC will get more heavy snow. Already, Whistler/Blackcomb in SW BC has received 32 inches (82 cm) of snow over the past two days, and those amounts could be doubled by Wednesday.

Parts of central and western Vancouver Island could see another 100-150 mm of rain (4-6 inches) by Thursday, with similar amounts along the lower, west-facing slopes of the Coastal Range. Expect a general 25-75 mm right around Vancouver through Thursday. Most of this moisture will dry up as it crosses the Rockies into Alberta.

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As is normally the case, this is my latest interpretation of the weekly European long range model output for North America, which now extends halfway into December...

Mean Pattern for the Week of Nov 23-29
--Most of central and eastern Canada warmer compared to normal. I suspect most of this warm spell will be the first half of this week, before trending colder.
--Not as wet over British Columbia. Temperatures close to normal.
--Active storm track across the southwestern U.S.
--Above-normal precipitation across the eastern Prairies.
--Below-normal precipitation from Quebec and eastern Ontario through the northeastern U.S. into the Maritimes.
--Dry and seasonable over Newfoundland.
--Wet over northern BC and SE Alaska.

The Week of Nov 30- Dec 6

--Much drier pattern over Alaska. Milder as well.
--Below-normal precipitation over BC. Temps close to normal.
--Cool pattern over the southwestern U.S.
--Wet over the southern Plains.
--Drier and colder over the Prairies, but nothing unusual.
--Colder than normal from the Great Lakes to the Midwest.
--Temperatures close to normal from the Ohio Valley and northeastern U.S. into eastern Ontario and Quebec with above-normal precipitation.

The Week of Dec 7-13

--Drier and milder compared to normal over BC and the Pacific Northwest.
--Temperatures close to normal over the Prairies, but precipitation below normal.
--Chilly wet pattern over the southeastern U.S.
--Temperatures close to normal over the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Tough to interpret the precipitation anomalies, so we will go with close to normal, especially the farther east you go. Might be somewhat wet over central and SW Ontario.
--Very cold pattern over north-central Canada.
--Colder pattern over Newfoundland.

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