Friday 8:40 a.m.

Today is Saxophone Day, celebrating the birth in 1814 of Adolphe Sax, who invented the instrument. Before that, I guess they didn't have a safe sax. Certainly no sax in public. Along the Northeast Coast, there was brief time when it was raining to beat the band last night. For today there will be chilly woodswinds at such places as Bass River, Massachusetts, Sussax County Delaware and Oboe-ken New Jersey. Drying winds have been clarinet in many sections early this morning.

Some people harp on about not wanting it get cold, but there's no law saying you have to play in the Northeast or Great Lakes sections. Many people like this arrangement in November. Today feels invigorating outside so there is no reason to B flat and you will be able to C sharp! How chilly will it get tonight? In New York City, we piccolo of 38.

For the weekend, from Chicago and Detroit to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, the weather shouldn't harmony one. Our staff likes it: some sunshine and very little haze along with mild breezes and woods winds. G! Daytime temperatures will rise to a higher key, and will not really drop off a clef in the foreseeable future. Of course the warm weather can't last forever. Strings of mild days usually don't fiddle around too long in November. Pretty soon we'll reach our coda. The arrangement for next week features mild weather at the beginning and end, but a chill at midweek.

For the week after next, we cannot be sure of the weather's composure. I don't think any forecast with specific details stanza chance. Numerical models have given us several different reedings on the trend. We might eventually beat the drums about it getting colder, but that will depend on how much chilly air the winds can snare. I apologize for not offering specifics. If you are trying to make arrangements based relying on knowing exact details two weeks in advance, you have my symphonies. In the short term, football weather will be good in the Great Lakes and Northeast, and fans will be hoping the defense for their team will have plenty of sax.

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Thursday 9:45 a.m.

I know this is water over the dam, but Tuesday was national cliche day. Normally, I wouldn't touch a cliche with a 10-foot pole. In fact, I avoid them like the plague, but to commemorate that unforgettable event... let's give it a shot. In the Ohio Valley, most of the Great Lakes and the Northeast for the coming weekend, it will be easy to look on the bright side of life. With sunshine, temperatures will climb into the 50s and then the 60s. That's quite a change from a week ago, when many places were as wet as a dishrag. And tomorrow, it should be sunny with a chilly wind for the New York Yankees' Parade. And, to borrow a phrase, everybody loves a parade!

However, what goes around comes around. Here we are in November, and snow lovers start getting impatient, but all good things come to those who wait. However, as to how long we have to wait... time will tell. Dry and warmer weather is coming as we go into the weekend, and it will tend to be mild next week. Eventually we'll see news on accuweather.com (the best weather on the web) about a strengthening storm in the middle of the country, and how it could bring us showers and then a cold blast next weekend.

But for now, no news is good news. (And what if we could say exactly when it will rain? There is no comfort in the truth.) While it will be unseasonably warm, it has been even warmer than this in early November. In 2003, 1950, 1982 and 1975, temperatures climbed to or past 80 in parts of the East around this time. In a way, the more things change, the more they stay the same. But hey, I can't change the past. Let bygones be bygones, so to speak. As far as the weekend is concerned, it looks like a piece of cake. Temperatures above average; little chance for rain.

We try to put all the pieces together to make sure the forecast is on target going forward, but a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. There is some uncertainty about tonight from the higher elevations of Pennsylvania and New York into New England. If early season snow showers make the roads slippery, drivers may find themselves with their backs up against the wall and it certainly no barrel of laughs. In the best case scenario, it would be great if we could pinpoint the forecast exactly, but the computers models have been neither here nor there on specifics. Here's an idea: check back with us later.

Yes, on the topic of snow showers tonight, weasel words apply, but we will explore every avenue to give a better forecast. At the end of the day, it's best to suggest that you be on the lookout for some snow showers in the areas I mentioned. Better safe than sorry! In any case, the short period of cold that's on the way is just the tip of the iceberg as far as winter is concerned. This will pale in comparison with December and January. On the other hand, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. And now, without further adieu, I'll stop before I overstay my welcome.

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Wednesday 8:45 a.m.

Sometimes, we can look at weather systems moving along at a regular pace, neither strengthening nor weakening as it goes. Forecasting is relatively simple in such situations, because changes are easy to time. The effects of each storm or front can be predicted for locations downstream based on what happened when those same systems moved through earlier.

The next few days will not represent one of those times. A weak low pressure area that crosses the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow morning will suddenly intensify into a gale-producing and very powerful storm east of New England. In the worst case scenario, spotty rain in coastal New England would turn to snow late tomorrow night as the storm takes shape, leading to a crawling commute for the area from Providence or Boston to Portland on Friday morning. For now, however, we are going with the idea that the storm will develop a little too late and a little too far offshore for anything like that to happen.. and that Friday will simply turn into a dry, windy, cold day across New England.

Whatever the storm does, it seems clear that a major warmup will spread into the Great lakes Friday and into the Northeast as we go through the weekend. While several weather systems are likely to cross the Great Lakes and Northeast next week, it seems none of them will usher in any really chilly air. This video shows more.

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Tuesday 7:45 a.m.

With dry air in place along with moderate early November temperatures, there should be little impediment to voting for the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. The video explores how things should unfold for the rest of the week and offers speculation about next week and the week beyond.

The basic idea is that a reinforcing shot of chilly air crosses the Great Lakes tomorrow night then moves across the Northeast from Thursday into Friday. The strongest pulse of chill will affect New England because the upper air support for the cold front is likely to intensify and cause a strengthening low pressure area to form east of New England on Friday. Snow showers may spread downwind from the eastern Great Lakes into the Appalachians Thursday night then cut off on Friday.

However, the following high pressure area will move all the way to the East Coast by Saturday. A strong south to southwest flow of much milder air will promote a warmup for the western Great Lakes Friday afternoon, the warmup will begin in the northeast Saturday and accelerate on Sunday.

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Monday 11:30 AM

This video explores the current setup and what should unfold during the next week or two.

Now that it is November, those who like snow start really paying attention to the latest maps and computer models. In the old days, meteorologists were the gatekeepers for all this information. Today, many people who take the time to look at the model output and compare it with the current weather situation can do a pretty good job in telling what should or could be happening. Meteorologists today must add value to the available products to help people make better decisions. When people take tours of the AccuWeather facility, many come away highly impressed by some of the forecast and advisory activities we perform. Yet, on some days when a forecast goes wrong (as happens in this column all too often), we hear jokes about weather forecasters. One of the ways we limit problems caused by failing forecasts is by making frequent adjustments and corrections for our clients. When you know what kind of decisions are being made and what activities are most weather sensitive, the expert meteorologist can be very helpful to her or his customers.

During the next several years, I believe new and improved tools will be developed to help users cope with the uncertainty that will remain a challenge in forecasting. Many corporate decision-makers use risk assessments to improve the odds of making the right moves. By using ensemble forecasting models and deriving extensive probabilistic byproducts, it should become easier to define the needs for specific users and then apply those probabilities to the problem at hand. Today's common use of probabilities in public forecasts often begins and ends with the probability of getting .01 of an inch of rain in the official gage during a 12 hour period. That's the official definition for the probability of precipitation. These probabilities give us nothing to answer questions like how much will it rain, how long will it rain, how continuous will the rainfall be, how will the intensity vary, what is the timing, etc, etc. A major report on this subject will be coming out of the American Meteorological Society next year. I have been part of that project, and we are currently working on a draft version of the report.

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