Tuesday 10:15 AM

The video goes into forecast issues for the Great Lakes and Northeast this week and beyond. Below, you will find my latest forecast for inside on Thanksgiving. I originally wrote it in the 1970s and Readers' Digest published a version of it in 1978.

In doing a search around the web, I see people using it without attribution. However, that is greatly outweighed by the outpouring of your kind comments regarding festivities held by the Broadcast Pioneers of Philadelphia. Thanks to all of you!!!

Turkeys will finish thawing Thanksgiving morning, then warm in the oven to a high near 190 in the afternoon. The kitchen will turn hot and humid, and if you bother the cook, be ready for a severe squall or a cold shoulder.

During the late afternoon and early evening hours, the cold front of a knife will slice through the turkey and cause it to accumulate 1-2 inches on plates. Mashed potatoes will drift across one side while cranberry sauce creates slippery spots on the other, especially if it mixes in as you turn to the green bean casserole. Please pass the gravy.

A weight watch has been issued for the entire area and we expect intervals of indigestion, with increasing stuffiness around the beltway.

During the evening the turkey will diminish and taper off to leftovers and drop to a low of 34 in the refrigerator. Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday: high pressure to eat sandwiches; flurries of leftovers can be expected both days with a 50% chance of scattered soup during the midday hours. We expect a warming trend baste on where soup develops.

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Monday 8:40 a.m.

Temperatures so far this month have run about 6 degrees higher than the long term average in the Chicago area, totally reversing the chill that kept it about the same amount below average two-thirds of October. The result is temperatures have only been 1-2 degrees lower than during the corresponding period last month, when a 12-degree difference is more typical. It has also been warmer than usual in the Northeast so far, but the departure from long-term avearges has been much less than in the western and central Great Lakes.

However, we are heading into a colder period later this week, and snow showers are likely as far east as western Michigan on Thanksgiving afternoon, and a few flurries could go all the way to the coast by Saturday. The new air mass will certainly not bring record-setting cold, but once it moves in, it will be easy to believe that December looms right ahead of us.

The GFS model shows some snow storm possibilities for the Great Lakes later next week and for parts of the Northeast (especially interior sections) the following week. None of the details on either storm can be trusted at the moment. However, one thing obvious: any and all snow that any place gets this winter will be part of events that have not happened yet.

In the shorter range, the weather looks like it favors pre-holiday travel from Michigan and Ohio over to the Middle and North Atlantic coast.

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Thursday 11:30 AM

The low pressure system that we have been tracking this week will be bringing its rain to the I95 corridor tonight and tomorrow. A high pressure area building in behind the low pressure center should promote sunshine for much of the Great Lakes and Northeast Regions on Saturday. Later Sunday into Monday, a storm from the Gulf of Mexico will be spreading rain up along the East Coast. Next week, two cold fronts will reach the Great Lakes and Northeast. Behind the second one, it is likely to get cold enough to initiate a lake effect snow outbreak, with snow showers extending into the Appalachians.

Tomorrow, I will be in Philadelphia,where the Broadcast Pioneers of Philadelphia will induct a group of people (includng yours truly) into their Hall of Fame. It is quite an honor, but I know that none of it would be possible without supportive colleagues and people who listen on the radio. This is my 38th year on KYW NewsRadio in Philadelphia, and It has been a special experence in my life.

In working with the station from AccuWeather headquarters, I work most frequently with Harry Donahue, who is not only a great newsperson and morning anchor, but who many Philadelphians know as the voice of the Temple Owls for basketball and football. I have also been blessed to work regularly with Ed Abrams and Carol MacKenzie (who are also morning anchors), Lauren Lipton and Mark Abrams (morning editors), as well as many of the talented staff members who make up THE trusted radio news source in the Philadelphia area.

Thanks also go out to Steve Butler, director of programming, for his support and advice. OK, at this point I know I am missing people that I really wanted to mention, but the sad fact is that at this point I really have no more room for anyt

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Wednesday 11:20 a.m.

Answer to the title question? Way up north. However, next week at this time, a storm moving through the Midwest and its associated cold front could usher in the first truly cold shot of the season. It looks like a setup that favors a couple of days of lake-effect snow... and snow showers in the northern and central Appalachians. Time will tell if this represents a real pattern change, or just a temporary intrusion of cold air that will move out almost as quickly as it moves in. The westerlies are quite strong over the Pacific, and this does not favor major troughs or ridges getting locked into one location or another. In this video, we look at how things are likely to unfold in the next several days, and we look at the cold shot that keeps showing up on the GFS runs for late next week.

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Tuesday 9:55 AM

The Midwest low pressure area is slowly spinning eastward, but should turn northeastward tomorrow and cross the Great Lakes. At the same time, easterly winds will add moisture to the air from Virginia on south, and that moisture should be pulled northward Thursday and Friday as the storm passes by to the north. We are still looking at prospects for a change to chill late next week, and the video shows more on that.

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