Dear Jesse hurricanes are quite interesting especially this time of the year.They are so unpreditable due to the cold fronts.I remember a few years back when one looped right back around hitting louisiana twice .I believe it was in November too.It made the weathermen on television look like rookies.I went through Alica in Galveston in 1983and let me tell you it was very scary.We stayed at a house one block from the beach.we were pretty high up due to the seawall 17 feet up.Alica was a wind event.during the height of the storm we walked out on porch out of the wind direction.The wind was tremendous and we were amazed at its power blowing down a big billboard.the palm trees were completely bending and strecthing on sides.You could tell palm trees were made to combat fierce winds.The regular trees shook so violently the next day it looked like sap was whipped out of leaves.This was ocurring at night.The hurricane winds hit about 9:30pm and blew all night at 125 miles an hour with gusts to 135 miles per hour.the winds were still blowing 100mph at 9 the next morning.I found out later the thing stall right off coast pounding us all night before finally moving shore.It hit on the west end of Galveston Island.We were on east side.I wouldn"t wanted to be down there there is no seawall down there.The other most noticable thing during height of storm was the very low fast moving clouds and the quick flashes of green metalic lighting.This wasn"t electrical lines breaking because the clouds were coming right off the beach with no light poles.It wasn;t lighting strikes just quick flashes.It looked like friction between fast moving clouds causing it.Another thing our ears were hurting due to very low pressure.The next day around 1030am the wind still at gale force but letting off with little sunlight showing we drove around the island and it looked like someone dropped a atomic bomb.I got the hell out for Ike as you know it was a major water event.The eye of the storm was hugh and caused a wall of water for miles across Gulf and when the storm surge and hugh waves hit it still floode Galvestonwith8 to 16 feet of water in some ares.places floode in galveston never flooded before.This all happened even with a seawall.If a Ike would of hit New Orleans they might have had such loss of life it could of surpassed our record 1900 storm that is still the worst human loss of lives today in America.Those poor people didnt have a seawall or no knowledge a storm was coming.An island turned into an violent ocean.I would recommend reading a Night Of Horrors.Issciac storm is okay for a weathermans point of view for how they dealt withweather those days.But Night Of Horrors were the stories of the survivors.Whole families were wiped out with maybe afather holding on to a log from a tore up home(eg).Some people were taken out to sea and came back in with tide.This storm also hit at night.The people could hear thousands of people screaming for help in the night followed bt silence.This tradegy took 6000 to 8000 people maybe more will never no.also down the Island during 1900 storm an orphange was taken by the tidal wave.All of the kids drown and the nuns yhat ran the orphange.it was told when storm water was rising the nuns tied all the children to a long rope to keep them from getting carried away by the waves and current.After the storm when people were attending to the thousnds of bodies some one walking on the beach on the west end noticed a clothing item peeking out of sand with end of rope.the man started pulling on the rope and pulled out a small child who was covered by sand withrope attached .When he kept pulling rope the orphange kids and nuns were attached and all drown.Last year me and my wife saw a book of the 1900 storm written in the same year at an antique store.There was a leaf of a tree inside it.We thought thats a weird book mark.Well we later foud out that some people who hung on a tree linb which saved them from drowing took a leaf from the tree or cut the tree down for sentmental value.The titanic took center stage because the people of Galveston didnt want any one to know about or wanted people to forget quik.It was a world wide story then but quickly snuffed out.The people didnt wont people scared from buying property there and future business.The storm did change history there for ever!Before the storm it was called the Wal Street OF THE SOUTH.There were more millionaires ther per square miles than New York.Many of them perished in the storm and the ones that lived moved away or inland 50 miles to Houston.These business men dug a deep channel from the gulf of mexico by passing Galveston.They built a huge Port in Houston and took nmajoriyt of business from Galveston.There were 2 to three families that stayed and still are very wealthy from money earned from the boom days.they invested their money in Insurance companies ,hotels,real estate,ranches ,oil and gas and gambling casinos.Yes Galveston had a Italian Don named Maceo and was backed by the powerful Moody family one of the families that stayed after storm.Infact there insurance company is one of the largest life insurance companies in the world.After the storm 1900 Galveston was knowned for its Casinos and wide open city,The great depression didnt affect Galveston because of the gambling.The gambling lasted until late 50s then they Maceos in laws moved to Vegas.It is rumored that the two largest casinos were built by the Maceos and The Moodys of Galveston.Even Frank Sinatra sang for them in Galveston at their Casinos before he hit it big.Ike tore down The 100 year old Balinese Room which was built several hundred yards out over waterto the shore.The reason it was long was because they could put gambling equipment away before Texas Rangers could get out there >They would push warning buzzard to alert casino.The band ZZ Top wrote a song about it"IT Was DOWn At the Balinese.Yes old Frank sang there and many other celebs(eg BoB Hope and JacK Benny.)performed there to many others to mention.(read about it Galveston and The Maceos.Ike left only a couple of poles.The casino had closed many years ago and later turned into supper club.After the storm people were searching on the sea wall next to it and finding some of the famous celebs pictures of famous celebs who performed there that were on walls.Other people were just taking parts ofthe building for memories before police ran them off.A hurricane can change history and course of nation.

The model consensus for this storm is odd..It goes North, skims the coast and heads SE. I have a question though, If this storm turns extratropical, can the cooler waters and strong shear weaken it? Or does it just stay as a strong gale?

FROM JESSE: Cooler waters do not affect extratropical storms as much - shear could still kill them.