Friday, 11:30 A.M.

Ida was downgraded to a tropical depression after making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua yesterday. It is currently inching northward through the eastern part of Honduras, and should move back out over the Northwest Caribbean sometime tonight. That would give the weakened storm an opportunity to get better organized again, and regain tropical storm strength sometime tomorrow. The projected path of Ida would take it very close to, if not over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night.

What will Ida do? That's a very challenging question right now, and the speculation literally runs the gamut from tropical storm to a major hurricane! Here are some interesting numbers for you relating to November Tropical Storms and Hurricanes:

- Since 1871, 62 tropical storms have formed in November (including Ida)

- Of these, 31 became hurricanes (again, including Ida)

- Of those, five became major hurricanes

- Two other major hurricanes that formed in October lingered into November.

- The most recent example of a Major Hurricane was last year, when Paloma formed on the 5th off the coast of Nicaragua, then headed north, then northeast, striking eastern Cuba before falling apart on the 9th.

- In 2001, Michelle became a tropical storm along the coast of Nicaragua November 1, then became a Category 4 Hurricane before making landfall over eastern Cuba late on the 4th. It began to dissipate once passing northeast of Cuba on the 5th.

- In 1999, Lenny developed into a tropical storm off the northeast tip of Honduras on the 13. Lenny then moved almost due EAST across the Caribbean, with winds reaching 155 mph on the 17th, the top end of the Catagory 4 scale. It then slowly weakened, finally falling apart on the 21st.

- In 1985, Kate developed northeast of Puerto Rico, and didn't become a Major Hurricane until passing west of Key West on the 21st. It then turned to the north through the eastern Gulf, striking the Florida Panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane on the 22nd. Kate then raced northeastward across southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas, weakening into a tropical storm along the way. It was declared extratropical late on the 23rd.

- Before that, Greta formed as a tropical depression southeast of Jamaica on the 30th of October, and remained a tropical depression for a couple days as it brushed the eastern tip of Cuba and headed generally north through the Bahamas. Greta actually did a counterclockwise loop thereafter well off the Florida coast, eventually becoming a tropical storm on the second as it moved southeastward toward Hispaniola. Greta became a hurricane on the 4th well north of Hispaniola, then turned more toward the east and became a major hurricane north of Puerto Rico early on the 5th. Winds reached 140 mph for a time later that day as the storm accelerated to the east, then northeast into the central Atlantic before being declared extratropical two days later.

- In 1932, the tenth storm of that season formed on the 30th of October east of the Leeward Islands. It then crossed into the northeast Caribbean, becoming a Category 1 storm on the 1st of November. It continued moving southwestward, nearly brushing the north coast of South America on the 3rd. This storm turned into a major Hurricane on the 5th over the western Caribbean, then turned north and moved slowly. It didn't strike Cuba until the 9th, and then accelerated off to the northeast to become a tropical storm in the central Atlantic on the 13th.

- And in 1912, a storm formed north of Panama on the 12th, drifted north and became a Major Hurricane on the 17th. It turned northeast, getting to near the southeast tip of Cuba, then turned around and headed west as a tropical storm before dying on the 21st as a tropical depression.

Based on that, we can say there has never been a Major Hurricane to hit the U.S. Coast in November. The only major hurricane to be observed in the Gulf is Kate in 1985, and it weakened as you would expect before striking the Florida Coast. In fact, it's just plain rare to have a hurricane hot the U.S. Mainland at this time of year for any number of reasons. For one, the storms are far less frequent. For another, shearing almost always weakens any storm getting as far north as the Gulf of Mexico at this time of the year, and water temperatures are not that supportive.

Can it still happen? Yeah, I guess so. The Titans could still run the table and go to the playoffs and win it all this year, but I would bet that's highly unlikely.

I think more importantly this system will be throwing a lot of tropical moisture at the Gulf of Mexico late in the weekend, and at the Gulf Coast region early next week once the upper level ridge now over Texas moves east and gets out of the way. This increased moisture will only be enhanced by the area of disturbed weather that is still looming over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico this morning. That's a system that will to develop over the weekend, and could at the very least produce some gales along the Texas (particularly the Upper Texas) coast and the Louisiana Coast late Sunday into Monday, along with some rain. But the bigger concern would be if Ida gets better organized and at least becomes a strong tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane by the end of the weekend and early next week. At the very least, it will turn much, much wetter from the central Gulf Coast eastward next week after a great week of weather this week through the weekend. Stay tuned!

Posted by Joe Lundberg on Friday, November 06, 2009 11:29 AM
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