European Blog
Raychel Harvey-Jones [Bio] [Email Me]
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:04 AM
European Winter Forecast ...Ask Bastardi!

With winter fast approaching, it has come to the time when we need to look at the predictions ahead for the European winter season.

Long Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi has given me a taste of what's to come and all week I will put to him your questions and concerns about the upcoming season. So drop me a line and your questions will be answered in this week-long discussion.

A blocking pattern over the North Pole will send Arctic highs far enough westward to cause some problems in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. As indicated by the above feature, normal rainfall is expected across much of the British Isles, normal to the Brits probably means just as wet.

Above normal for much of Spain, Portugal and Southern France as the southern stream will bring moisture off the Atlantic. The Mediterranean has also cooled significantly which is a sign that Southern Europe will be dealing with a colder-than-normal winter, a chilling thought. Germany, extending to eastern parts of Italy will also have above-average rainfall.

For skiers, this winter will be a wonderland as there are many areas throughout Europe that will have above average and well above-average snow.

Even England, Wales and parts of Southern Scotland will have above-average snowfall as a high develops over Scandinavia, a westerly flow with a storm will cut to the south and will bring snow to the southern half of the British Isles.

Just when you thought I must have some good news, the temperatures are not sitting in our favor across Europe.

The center of the cold air, based on Bastardi's predictions, is over central Europe, he says that as the winter progresses it will get colder.

There is good news on the horizon and that is the lead-up to winter will be relatively warm, until the blocking pattern moves in to place.

Although November has not started well, an Indian Summer approaches with the calm before the storm. Bastardi says around late December, the temperatures will start to flip and become very cold.


So what is your question for our long range forecaster?... let me know, we will continue to focus on Europe and the winter this week.

Become a fan of Accuweather.com on facebook

Raychel


Categories: Euro Blog
Posted by Raychel Harvey-Jones on Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:04 AM
| Comments (14) | Post A Comment
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Comments (14):
mark:

hi there i am going to austria on the 18th of december i am hoping of snow could you tell me if its going to be snowing week beginning 21th december please if so is it going to be lots please make my day as been trying to find out as getting married then thank

Posted by mark | November 23, 2009 2:00 PM

Claudiu Colcer:

Hello,

I am just waiting for a true winter. For more than 3 years we did not had such think in Romania. Until now the prediction is excellent. We had a bad start of November, but now it is like spring here. Next days we are expecting to have 20 degrees temperatures which are normal for beggining of October.

Hoping for a more detailed forecast for Europe.

Best Regarads!!!

Posted by Claudiu Colcer | November 17, 2009 11:38 AM

claudiu:

when will my question get an answer ?

Posted by claudiu | November 16, 2009 2:41 PM

Kristi:

Yes it is Igor,but Rachel wrote this on the latest blog entry:''Thank you for all your questions concerning the European Winter Forecast, your answers will be published next week.''

Greetings from Tirana,
Kristi :)

Posted by Kristi | November 8, 2009 1:09 PM

Igor:

C'mon Joe its the end of the week :)))

Posted by Igor | November 7, 2009 8:32 PM

Aurélio:

Hello Rychel,
I live in southern Portugal and are basically 8 years of drought ...
Since you foresee a West Jet by your predictions then I can understand that will be a winter with above normal precipitation!
However this initial phase has been very dry, and it should continue in November.
When do you think that this time just horrible. I'm sick of heat and sun.

When the storm arrives??

I want to rain and lightning and windy:)

Posted by Aurélio | November 5, 2009 2:16 PM

Kristi:

I mean,when will my question get an answer ? :)
Yours,Kristi

Raychel says -

By the end of the week

thank Kristi

Posted by Kristi | November 4, 2009 9:12 AM

Igor:

By the way how and when we'll get our answers cause I never been in such a discussion before .

Raychel Keep reading the blog this week Igor

Thanks Raychel

Posted by Igor | November 3, 2009 7:45 PM

Rui:

Hi Raychel, this is a very interesting post. I haven't got any question about the future but one on theory - what is the blocking pattern? I understand the meaning of the expression but it consists on what? Thanks!

Rui

Posted by Rui | November 3, 2009 5:32 PM

claudiu:

Hello
I'm from Bucharest,Romania I would like to know more details about this winter in Romania(if you can mare details about the southern part of Romania).

Posted by claudiu | November 3, 2009 4:38 PM

Hi,Joe.

I am from Croatia and i cant believe that so cold winter is coming.Please ,say are you sure that it'll be so cold.

I really cant believe so I would like you to give new seasonal forecast for Europe for one or two weeks!

Thanks.

Sorry, not goo to hear I know , but that is our prediction


Raychel

Posted by ivica | November 3, 2009 3:59 PM

Igor:

i thought the "well above normal snowfall" will be at Balkan countries since both of the jet streams are focused directly into that area and only above average snowfall in the Alps , Austria , Poland , Romania , i say this because i saw some other weather predictions , and the air pressure was -5 into Italy and the Balkan and only -2,-3 into Alps region. Wrote this on facebook Europe thread but didn't get the answer , please answer


Igor.

Posted by Igor | November 3, 2009 12:36 PM

Clinton Caruana:

Do you have any indications on precipitation levels (above or below average) for the southern central Mediterranean region (ie: Southern Italy and Malta) for early Winter (ie: Nov-Dec)? Thanks.

Usually a warm setup over Europe favours below average precipitation over the Med.

Posted by Clinton Caruana | November 3, 2009 8:56 AM

Kristi:

Hello,
I live in Tirana,Albania and is years that my city hasn't seen snowfalls.I would like to know if there will be snow this year in my city?

Yours,
Kristi

Posted by Kristi | November 3, 2009 8:03 AM

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