--Indian Ocean (IMD satellite imagery):

In short, we have the season's first tropical cyclone over the southern Indian Ocean together with a tropical depression over the Arabian Sea near Somalia.

I shall start with Asma, which is the tropical cyclone now spinning north-northeast of the Mascarene Islands. As of 0600 GMT, the JTWC rated highest sustained winds at 55 knots/100 kmh about a center 610 miles/980 km north-northeast of Mauritius. Movement was to the west-southwest at 8 knots/15 kmh.

A later (1800) estimate from the Tropical Cyclone Centre of La Reunion has 40-knot/75-kmh highest sustained winds.

Whereas the JTWC forecasts strengthening, the Cyclone Centre weakens Asma over time. Both do agree on a mostly westward track to the northern tip of Madagascar. Late (1800 UTC) satellite imagery does seem to show weakening in this tropical cyclone. Moreover, water temperature westward to northern Madagascar would be marginal for sustaining a strong tropical cyclone.

Shifting north of the Equator, the focus becomes a tropical depression over the southwestern Arabian Sea off the Horn of Africa. This depression seems (as of 1800 UTC) to be centered south of Socotra and east of northern Somalia with movement toward the west or west-northwest.

This tropical depression could become a tropical cyclone (within 12 to 24 hours, I would say) before proximity to land renders this outcome increasingly unlikely. As for weather impact, torrential rain will happen, at least locally, over Socotra and northeastern Somalia. Tuesday through Thursday, tropical moisture will flow northwest into southern Arabia, where it will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over Yemen, Oman and southeastern Saudi Arabia.

Elsewhere in the hemisphere, a blowup of convective rain can be seen over the southeastern Arabian Sea near the state of Kerala, India. Some numerical forecast scenarios show this weather system strengthening toward the north and west.

Another area of interest lies with widespread, loosely organized convective rains straddling the Equator westward from Sumatra, Indonesia. Some numerical forecast scenarios show slow consolidation of a low drifting northwestward north of the Equator later in the week.

Far East:

Tropical Storm Bavi took shape late last week southeast of Japan. Bavi has veered northeastward and is becoming an extra tropical storm at this time (1800 UTC Monday).

Posted by Jim Andrews on Monday, October 20, 2008 1:58 PM
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