Hi Brett,

I live on the North Shore of Long Island. How does it look for chances of big snowstorms this winter? I enjoy your reports. Thanks very much for all your info.

Greg

Reply: I think there will be greater chance for larger snowstorms this winter, based on the projected pattern. There should be plenty of storms, but as usual, the rain snow line will be close.

Brett,

just wanted to thank you for the best possible
outlook on rain chances for central/so California.
you got alot of people hissing and biting at ya about all their areas and I think you do a good job replying,whether you are right,close or wrong,
you rock dude....

Gary,

Santa Cruz.Ca...

dear brett. looks like this be a very active winter season in the southern tire of new york state. with more storms coming off the cost.dose this mean new york state and the northeast might see a higher snowfall this season then past years when el nino season like the in 2002 season...

Hi Mr. Brett =) im a big fan of ur columns... so since i dont see any forecast yet for down here in mexico and i know that is not your area HEhe... anyway i would like to know what do you see for mexico this Winter specially on northwest mexico, i live in mazatlan mexico, a port here on sea cortez :) ... we dont have winters like urs of course but i like cool thats the reason i asked, Thanks in advanced ...

Regards.

Mazatlan, Sinaloa . Mexico.
Guillermo

Reply: Based on a quick look, I would lean towards a cooler and wetter winter compared to normal.

Hey Brett! I live in eastern Maine around Portland, and it sounds snowier and colder than normal, right? thanks
-Michael

Reply: Yes to snowier, temps probably more closer to normal as the Arctic air may stay to your north a good chunk of the winter.

can you give more detail about rain for the coastal areas of central california it all seems to be about Canada and and east coast.central cali and southern Cali dry dry dry too.when wil we start seeing some rain in these areas??? tx

Gary,

Santa Cruz,California

Reply: It is still early Gary. Our long range forecasts are for the winter (dec/jan/feb) It does look like the pattern will start to slowly shift around the 25th or so and then into December. The model does suggest above-normal rainfall this winter in California, esp. southern Cal.

So what does this mean for weather in Central Texas (Austin area). Previous forecasts showed increased precipitation and below average temperatures. Is that still the same?

Reply: I would say that is correct.

Hi Brett, I know you mainly concentrate on Canada, but any thought on the Buffalo, Rochester area of Western New York this winter. This area has a mind of it's own during winter do to lake effect. Would it be fair to say if coastal storms prevail, a flow of cold air on the back side will cause heavier than normal snow? We all ( those of us old enough that is) remember the El Nino winter of 76-77, and the following stormy winter of 77-78. Thanks!

Reply: I think temperatures as a whole this winter will be close to normal. Snowfall around Buffalo, since much of it depends on lake-effect from the southwest will be below-normal. Rochester will have close to normal snowfall.

Hi, I saw a link to this blog from Ken Clark's blog in California. I live in Arizona, and we had an "El Niņo" in 2006-2007 that was a total dud. Rainfall here was significantly below normal that winter, and L.A. had the driest winter on record. I feel that there is some unknown factor that is strongly suppressing precipitation here, and El Niņo will not overcome that; so I am sure we will have a drier-than-normal winter here, and in southern California. The split storm track will never develop.

Arizona is currently in one of the worst droughts on record. Most places in the state have had 1/4 to 1/2 of normal year-to-date precip. Phoenix has had no rain since September 5- quite abnormal even for here. The 14-day forecast calls for no rain here thru Dec 1. The Pacific Northwest is getting slammed with storm after storm, and the Southwest is bone-dry. Regardless of SSTs in the Pacific, for the Western U.S., this is a classic La Niņa pattern.

I would be willing to bet anybody that Arizona and Southern California will have BELOW-NORMAL precipitation this winter.

Mike S.
Phoenix, AZ

Reply: OK everyone, you heard the bet. Any takers?

OH MY GOD...WHAT A DISASTER FOR ALBERTA!!!!!!!!

Reply: Not yet my friend. Just a long range computer model forecast.

Hi Brett,

I would appreciate it, if you could let me know
if you expect (as per the latest model) that
we will get above average snowfall for this upcoming winter.

Hope your answer, will be positive... I just love the white fluffy stuff.. never seem to get enough of it.

Thanks
mj
Ottawa,Ontario

Reply: Based on that model, the storm track still may be too far east for Ottawa, so near-normal snowfall and temperatures.

What does this mean for, 18 miles north of Trenton, NJ, we live in the Sourland Mountains.

Thanks;
-Zach-

Reply: Based on the model for the winter....I would say temperatures close to normal, rainfall and snowfall above normal.

Hey brett, you mention the eastern seaboard and the south in your interpretation for the winter outlook. What do you think the winter holds for central florida. We just bought a place an hour east of Tampa in April and this will be our first winter to spend some time there. We are hoping for a break from these long cold Wisconsin winters. Thanks, Mike H.

Reply: I think temperatures will be close to normal, but there will be many fronts this winter which will bring their share of heavier rainfall. Could be some severe weather outbreaks in Feb and Mar.

Hi Brett,

here in Quebec we have a november well above normal in term of sunshine and temperatures!

Is this El Nino linked?? Reply: To some part I would say yes, but not completely.

It's great to have a november that sunny instead of the usual cloudiness, but i prefer have this in the summers months...!! When ElNino will have is effects on summer ??! I remember back in 1999, this summer was hot and sunny in Quebec and everyone said it was ElNino effects!

Last question: It seems like Quebec city will be on the edge of the big snowstorms this winter, isn't it ? :(

Reply: Yes, I agree with that.

Thanks a lot!
a fan from Quebec

Hey Brett,

Any chance of wet snow around the Abbotsford BC area in the next while? I know we are in a warm spell but I herd temps will cool by the weekend and env. Canada shows periods of rain mixed with snow. Anything you can say on that?

-Chris

Reply: Yes, I think there is a shot at a small accumulation over the weekend, perhaps Saturday or Saturday night. It does look just cold enough. The question is how much moisture is left over.

Hi Brett,

Just interested to get a further opinion on how poor a ski season some of the inner BC resorts are likely to get? Are we likely to see the shocker of 2000/01, or will there at least be small falls to keep the season going?

Hope to hear your thoughts?

Thanks,

Nick

Reply: At least we are seeing good snows now. I do think there will be some small falls and the season will keep going in my opinion.

The model as all models, is running somewhat on precedent...but conditions this season are more unprecedented than ever before there was a database for the model. So take the model with a grain of salt.

Would not be the first winter Olympics in Canada to almost get melted.
The Calgary 1988 Olympics suffered from Chinook winds pushing temperatures as high as 18C.

The weather around here is showing no signs of snow. instead it's warm and dry.
That model outlook concerns me.

Hey Everyone;

In case you havent noticed...
These SEASONAL & Long Range forecasts are RARELY correct
It is hard enough to predict conditions for a storm 24hrs out and conditions for a week in advance, let alone months and entire seasons!
Relax and just wait and see what happens!

Ryan
NS

Hi Brett,

I always find you have great details in your longer range model forecasts; in your last update it looked as if it would be stormier (more snowfall) than normal for Cape Breton and Newfoundland. Does this still hold true,or are we in for more of those "warm side" washouts...?

Thanks,

Stewart C.

Reply: It still looks like there should b plenty of storms, but SE Newfoundland may be a constant battle between snow and rain.

Hi Brett,

After an unusually mild start in November in Southern Quebec (some El Nino effects?), do you think that this region could get cold temperatures later this month?

Reply: Yes, after the 25th.

Also, is it possible that the Montreal area could get a lot of snow for the third winter in a row?

Reply: Tough to say, you may be a bit too far north and west.

Have a nice week!

Patrick

Brett, Just wondering, but does this forecast favor big snows for the coast of maine? We have already seen snow twice, hoping for a nice white winter for snowmobiling and everything else. Thanks, Mason

Reply: Yes, I think it does, but there will also be some snow to rain events as well, since cold air will be marginal.

So that means for the piedmont of NC getting alot of snow as well correct. I noticed you said the applachains but north and west of raleigh would get alot of snow as well to.

Reply: I would say compared to normal, which is not a lot, it would be above normal snowfall near Greensboro.

Hi Brett,

I was just curious...when you say that the big cities will have equal chances of rain and snow, do you mean that we'll see more wintry mix again there? The storm track and slightly below normal temps seem perfect for big snowstorms in the mid-atlantic. In other words, wouldn't the cold air already be in place ahead of a storm with this type of pattern?

Reply: This new European model update would say that the storm track would be too close to the coast or slightly inland, while most of the Arctic air stays north and west, which favors more rain than snow at the coast, but there should be just enough bigger snow events to push snowfall above-normal.

Brett,

Can you speculate as to whether Southern VT will be in the Heavy Snow Alley, or will the storms tend to be a bit too far off the coast to bury that far inland ?

Thanks,

GW

Reply: Based on the model only, it would say that VT would see a snowy winter.

Well, I'm sorry but come next update it will be different.

It has been waaaay too consistent in its previous releases with 99% of the East Coast getting a good winter for me to buy an Apps-biased winter croc of ___ now.

Hey, Brett

So, it looks like Toronto, could see below normal temps. and above normal snowfall?

What month on this model looks snowiest? Coldest?

Is the el nino weakning?

Thanks!

Reply: I personally think temperatures and snowfall this winter will be close to seasonal averages around Toronto.

El nino is strengthening slightly.

The active storm track across the South, and just below normal temps.,is pretty odd to me. I live in Atlanta and each winter it seems both don't come together. Last winter was dry( due to the 2007-2009 drought)but it was colder than normal. Could this mean a somewhat snowier winter for the Southern Appalachians(Northern Georgia,Alabama)?

Reply: Yes, it could very well be a snowier winter compared to normal.

The model seems to be contrarian to JB's snowy mid atlantic prognostication. Split-flow is not very cold in general and not snowy! In accordance with this model, I predict JB will bust this winter! Shades of 01-02. Geraniums still blooming on my porch. snow accumulation on Oct 18. but still an inauspicious Autumn!

Climate change is global, global
fighting the warming is noble, noble
Global warming is here for a stay
Big Al Gore is here to say!

Hi Brett,

I realize that this isn't your forecast but could you try to clear something up for me regarding the call on the Atlantic Canadian winter. It seems to indicate that the majority of storms will run up the Bay of Fundy area from the Appiliations as opposed to the lows travelling south of Nova Scotia as in the last few years. When this happens N.S. gets mostly rain and New Brunswick gets the majority of the snow. Am I reading the tea leaves right here, or is it just wishful thinking???

Best,

Alex

Reply: Based on this latest model, the position of the ridge in western Canada would tend to favor storms that hug the coast, which would put the best snow fall west of Nova Scotia, but I still think there would be just enough big storms off the coast for above-normal snowfall in most of NS.

hey bret,
well can not really get to excited about the
forecast for vancouver.
i am hoping there is some cold in there for
christmas if we can not have snow i will take the cold. hoping for the elnino to weaken but
not looking so good. thanks for the update and look forward to the brett anderson version of the winter......

regards,
shelley
vancouverbc

hey bret,
well can not really get to excited about the
forecast for vancouver.
i am hoping there is some cold in there for
christmas if we can not have snow i will take the cold. hoping for the elnino to weaken but
not looking so good. thanks for the update and look forward to the brett anderson version of the winter......

regards,
shelley
vancouverbc

So we will actually be having a winter one of these days in Winnipeg?

Not that I'm complaining too loudly, but last winter the snow first set in on November 5. This year my grass is still green and it's the 16th.