Monday 10:55 AM
Unseasonably warm weather is affecting most of the Great Lakes region and all of the Northeast today. A cold front now crossing the Great Lakes will move off the New England coast tomorrow, ushering in a cool... but not really cold... air mass. That's because the new high pressure area is coming out of the Plains, not northwestern Canada.
Once the high moves off the coast later in the week, we would normally expect to experience another warmup ahead of the next cold front, which may cross the Northeast late next weekend. Complicating the whole picture is Ida. The storm was downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm status this morning. Remember, these classifications are based on wind, and storms of this nature often continue on as major rainstorms long after the worst winds have subsided. At AccuWeather, we pioneered the term "tropical rainstorm" to draw attention to these storms.
The storm will cause heavy rain along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and spread across much of the Southeast. However, it is very uncertain what the effect will be farther north. Often, a storm from the Gulf will run up along the East Coast delivering a major dose of rain as it goes. The GFS has been saying that's what happens, predicting windy, rainy weather for Wednesday and Wednesday night all the way to Philadelphia, New York City and then Boston. The NMM-WRF model, on the other hand, suppresses the storm after tomorrow, and NEVER brings ANY rain into the Northeast. I have been leaning toward a compromise between the two ideas, but have little confidence in that outcome at the moment.
Another element of intrigue is the possibility of snow breaking out at the northwest edge of the precipitation IF it does reach northeastern Pennsylvania and the interior of New York and New England. This morning's run of the GFS continues to advance the rain up along the coast. The video shows this difference in solutions, and we show the GFS operational run for part of Thanksgiving week (amazing... Thanksgiving is two weeks from Thursday!!!).
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Temperature Highlights - October
The average October temperature of 50.8°F was 4.0°F below the 20th Century average and ranked as the 3rd coolest based on preliminary data.
For the nation as a whole, it was the third coolest October on record. The month was marked by an active weather pattern that reinforced unseasonably cold air behind a series of cold fronts. Temperatures were below normal in eight of the nation's nine climate regions, and of the nine, five were much below normal. Only the Southeast climate region had near normal temperatures for October.
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Where is all that global warming, er, I mean climate change? I guess it's changing for the coller.
Posted by twotimetuna | November 10, 2009 8:49 AM
haha that really gave me a good laugh, thanks
Posted by Melissa | November 9, 2009 9:55 PM
Lol Eliot,
I can hope that New England will continue to be "affected" by warmer weather. :)
Posted by Michael J | November 9, 2009 11:17 AM