Wednesday 11:40 a.m.

At six seconds after 4:05 p.m. this afternoon, you can arrange the numbers in the time and date so it reads 04:05:06 07/08/09. This sequence will not be repeated in this manner again this century. I thought that mentioning it today might be timely, although by tomorrow it will seem dated.

In June, the temperature never reached 85 degrees in New York City. That has only happened three other times in the last century and a half, 1886, 1903 and 1916. In all three of those years, the following winter had above-average snowfall in and around New York City.

So far this month, every day has been warmer at Fairbanks, Alaska, than at Portland, Maine. Any time that happened in the past, it was colder in both places the following winter.

The lack of sustained warmth has really grabbed the attention of many people from the Great Lakes to New England. Even though it has reached 80 degrees twice so far this month in Boston, it has still averaged 6.3 degrees cooler than the longer term average. In contrast, at San Antonio, Texas, it has been nearly 5 degrees hotter than average so far, with four of the first seven days of the month broiling to or past 100 degrees. I spent the summer of 1970 there at the USAF Officer Training School and the heat seemed most bothersome to me around 7:30 each morning out on the drill pad. That summer, the heat was intense, but it stayed mainly in the 90s.

Fine weather is the rule today from central Michigan to Pennsylvania and New Jersey. the dampness dominating central and northern New England should be replaced by gradual improvement tomorrow and a beautiful sunny day on Friday.

A strong cold front that will cross the Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday morning may trigger violent thunderstorms, and some of those storms may proceed to the East Coast Saturday night or Sunday. Another dose of dry air will follow the front. It will remain warm behind the front in places like Chicago, but in New England the cooling should be more noticeable after the early weekend warmup.

All it would take to get some really warm weather into the Northeast would be a west to southwesterly flow aloft that lasts more than a day or two. The reason is simple: it is really hot in the central and southern Plains, so a flow from that direction would bring in the hot air. It remains to be seen when and if this actually happens. Some numerical model runs are suggesting a spike in temperatures for the Northeast after next week. See Joe Bastardi's expert analysis for more on that.

Posted by Elliot Abrams on Wednesday, July 08, 2009 11:26 AM
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