Thursday 11:30 AM

The low pressure system that we have been tracking this week will be bringing its rain to the I95 corridor tonight and tomorrow. A high pressure area building in behind the low pressure center should promote sunshine for much of the Great Lakes and Northeast Regions on Saturday. Later Sunday into Monday, a storm from the Gulf of Mexico will be spreading rain up along the East Coast. Next week, two cold fronts will reach the Great Lakes and Northeast. Behind the second one, it is likely to get cold enough to initiate a lake effect snow outbreak, with snow showers extending into the Appalachians.

Tomorrow, I will be in Philadelphia,where the Broadcast Pioneers of Philadelphia will induct a group of people (includng yours truly) into their Hall of Fame. It is quite an honor, but I know that none of it would be possible without supportive colleagues and people who listen on the radio. This is my 38th year on KYW NewsRadio in Philadelphia, and It has been a special experence in my life.

In working with the station from AccuWeather headquarters, I work most frequently with Harry Donahue, who is not only a great newsperson and morning anchor, but who many Philadelphians know as the voice of the Temple Owls for basketball and football. I have also been blessed to work regularly with Ed Abrams and Carol MacKenzie (who are also morning anchors), Lauren Lipton and Mark Abrams (morning editors), as well as many of the talented staff members who make up THE trusted radio news source in the Philadelphia area.

Thanks also go out to Steve Butler, director of programming, for his support and advice. OK, at this point I know I am missing people that I really wanted to mention, but the sad fact is that at this point I really have no more room for anyt

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Wednesday 11:20 a.m.

Answer to the title question? Way up north. However, next week at this time, a storm moving through the Midwest and its associated cold front could usher in the first truly cold shot of the season. It looks like a setup that favors a couple of days of lake-effect snow... and snow showers in the northern and central Appalachians. Time will tell if this represents a real pattern change, or just a temporary intrusion of cold air that will move out almost as quickly as it moves in. The westerlies are quite strong over the Pacific, and this does not favor major troughs or ridges getting locked into one location or another. In this video, we look at how things are likely to unfold in the next several days, and we look at the cold shot that keeps showing up on the GFS runs for late next week.

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Tuesday 9:55 AM

The Midwest low pressure area is slowly spinning eastward, but should turn northeastward tomorrow and cross the Great Lakes. At the same time, easterly winds will add moisture to the air from Virginia on south, and that moisture should be pulled northward Thursday and Friday as the storm passes by to the north. We are still looking at prospects for a change to chill late next week, and the video shows more on that.

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Monday 10:35 AM

The main belt of westerlies aloft runs from the Eastern Pacific northeastward into central Canada, then southeast through Quebec and out past the Canadian Maritimes. This flow pattern very effectively prevents any arctic air from reaching the United States.

A closed low aloft centered in Kansas is cut off from that main flow and is moving very slowly. Even though no true arctic air is involved with this system, it has been cold enough aloft near the center to allow a small patch of heavy, wet snow to spread across parts of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. During the weekend, there was more extensive snowfall when the system went across the Rockies. There is a weak second branch of the flow that peels off from the main westerlies in the Eastern Pacific, travels southeastward around the southern periphery of the cutoff low, then heads northeastward to the Ohio Valley and east from there.

A series of strong short wave troughs will crash into he Pacific Northwest this week. The numerical models eventually take one or more those systems far enough south to eject the storm now over the Plains, and start carving out a trough that will move from the Plains into the Great Lakes and then the Northeast by Thanksgiving weekend. At the same time, the big vortex that has been over Alaska is shown to redevelop farther southwest, leaving room for a ridge to build over western North America.

If that all happens, a cold weather pattern will become established for the Great Lakes and Northeast during the Thanksgiving weekend. Of course, that's still more than a week and half from now, so we will simply watch how things unfold between now and early next week. In other words, if you put on your parka today in anticipation of cold air late next week, how many people are going to want to sit next to you on Thanksgiving Day?

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Friday the 13th at 11:13 AM

On Friday the 13th, virtually all the fears known to humanity seem to surface for some people. Of course, as your meteorologist, fear is something that cannot be permitted to take over, because if it did, I might be so fearful about making a mistake that I would never get to the forecast. That of course would be most unfortunate, because a lot of weather is happening.

For the Middle Atlantic states, even the area all the way south to Cape Fear, N.C., a powerful storm is causing rain and fearsome winds. The heaviest rain looks like it will head northward through eastern New England tonight and tomorrow, and leftover clouds with drizzly dampness will dominate the Middle Atlantic region as we go into tomorrow. The mild, dry weather continues in the Great Lakes region, though it will be a bit cooler (especially at night) early next week. As a large high pressure area builds eastward, much of next week looks nice for the Northeast quarter of the nation. No really cold air can come in the Great Lakes or Northeast until a huge vortex (low pressure area) over Alaska goes away. It is channeling Pacific air into the West, and that rather mild air is warmed further as air from the Gulf states is added on the way east. There are signs of a pattern change during Thanksgiving week, so we'll be looking for evidence of that next week.

But yes, fear can be a powerful influence. Think of all the times that fear or worry have crept into your thoughts. You may not admit to this all the time, and certainly you don't want to show it, but the average person does have fears and worries, stress and strain, turmoil and tribulations. And, if the average person is this way, just think about its effect on you, the above-average person... the thoughtful and thinking person who visits accuweather.com! But, let's face it, folks: my job is not to try to conquer fear. My job is not to try to ward off all the things you or others may fear, whether for real and valid reasons or otherwise. It's giving you the latest weather information and forecast, the latest updates and bulletins, watches and warnings. By yielding to fear, by allowing it to take over and prevent clear thought, lucid reasoning, and forward thinking, no forecasting would be done at all.

What are some of the specific fears meteorologist face: One fear is startaphobia: the fear of mis-forecasting the onset time of rain. Another fear is pessimiphobia: the fear of being too pessimistic and making it sound like it's going to rain more than it will. That's a fear every time showers are approaching but are not well organized. Then of course, there's optimaphobia: predicting the weather will turn out well only to have it be dreary and rainy or snowy and dull. With both of those fears comes ignoraphobia, the fear that since the forecast is not certain, people will ignore it completely. That of course leads to pinkslipphobia, the fear that too many bad forecasts will cause the boss to send us a little memo on a pink slip. Which brings me to a fear we hope you don't have: loginaphobia. If you're afraid to log in again, you won't get the many updated forecasts all weekend. And then there's blogophobia, the fear that people will say mean things about you on the boards.

For now, let's forget and forbid our fears and phobias. I hope you have a nice weekend, whether a friend be you or a pho be you.

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