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Here are some quick quotes from our meteorologists this morning regarding the models shifting eastward with next week's storm. After I attend our Morning Operational Meeting here at AccuWeather, I'll have some more tidbits for you. Later today, I'll take a look at the probabilities with the model forecasts of this storm. The DGEX has considerably increased the lowest pressure of the storm from 960 to 972 mb (weakening) and the snow map has changed a lot since yesterday (see below), shifting the highest amounts further north. I will post a comparison of the last 3 runs of the DGEX on the Forums.
 UPDATE: THIS ENTRY IS OUT OF DATE; SEE RECENT ENTRIES AT RIGHT! |
THE LATEST DGEX MODEL SNOW PROJECTION
AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL):
Can it shift east further? The reference of course is to the storm next week. Probably not. The factors listed yesterday in the post I think are still good ideas and formed the basis for why I thought an east, rather than west, shift was likely in modeling here. Now. all the modeling I can find, foreign and domestic, have shifted tracks to east of the Appalachians, some even off shore enough to warrant concern that this could be heavy snowstorm in the big cities. I think it does snow in these areas ( possible exception Boston, with the heaviest in DC, but the core of this storm I believe is the US 220 corridor in the Appalachians to Pa, then probably morphing into I 81 from pa northeast. [read more on Forums]
Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO):
The operational models continue to adjust the storm track east which I think is interesting given the trend of the winter. If you take the track of the storm now, the axis of the heavy snow would go from Atlanta to Winston to DC to Trenton to Albany. It's a great track now to dump heavy snow in DC and Baltimore and not so for NYC and Boston which would mix with rain to snow. In any case, it's just the trend of the models overnight and I still think the track is more favored to go from New Orleans to Charlotte to Albany. [read more on Forums]
Joe Lundberg (PREMIUM | PRO):
Just a quick update on the progress, if you will, of our next winter storm threat over the eastern half of the country. Much of the modeling overnight has made a significant, if not dramatic, shift eastward in their projected paths of the storm, save the UKMET model. Most of the rest are now more or less coast huggers. This, of course, would mean a rather dramatic change in the overall outcome of the weather! Second, the surface development is slower and farther north. From what I can read, it would appear that the storm does not drop below 1000mb strength until it passes the latitude of Cape Hatteras. That would clearly make this different than the Super Storm of '93, where much of the deepening was SOUTH of that latitude. [read more on Forums]
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so your saying we may see our first big snow here in central pa i live in tyrone and im sick of wintry mix
Posted by Brad Oswalt | January 30, 2009 1:31 PM
this model is looking beautiful for us here in state college! (i'm a junior at upark)
Posted by student | January 30, 2009 9:32 AM
Sounds like this mega-super-collossal 73.7% Storm of the SuperMega-SuperDuper-Storm of the Millenium Storm of 1938 (or 1942 or 1975 or whatever) is beginning to fall apart.
Calm down people!
Posted by Brian | January 30, 2009 9:29 AM
I have written down in seperate note books the last 32 winters.(still have them all). My personnal opinion on the storm coming Monday and Tuesday is that it does not bring much snow to the 1-95 corridor, Washington, Baltimore, phil, New York or Boston. I based this on the month of December. Normally if their is not a significant snowstorm (8 inches of more) chances are you will not get a good snowstorm (8 inches or more) during that winter.
Thank you for allowing me to express my comments
Carlos Linares
Posted by carlos Linares | January 30, 2009 9:01 AM