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STORM WILL EXPLODE OFF THE COAST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WATCH HOW THE RAIN GOES OVER TO A WIND-WHIPPED HEAVY SNOW.....
For all you weather nuts, this is a great case to watch in regards to explosive storm development and how cooling due to a deepening storm can change the rain over to wet snow. The energy that will cause the storm to develop is still back in the Midwest and will take about another 12 hours to hit the coast and start the storm development process. This is truly a case of a trough going from positive to negative tilt. As some of you have read before, the negative-tilted troughs are ones that slant from southeast to northwest and concentrate all the energy into one location for a deepening storm. If this were December or January, we would be talking about a Big Daddy blizzard for that area shown on the map, but it is only late October, so the worst you can have is a wind-blown wet snowstorm.
I do think the rain will change to snow across parts of northern NJ and NE PA, and I will not be surprised if snowflakes are seen in the suburbs of New York City. But since the winds will be coming around from the northwest and will be downsloping off the hills of NW NJ, it will take a lot for it to snow all the way into the city.
Eastern NY is the place that will take the brunt of the storm with a heavy, wet snow up to 6 inches Tuesday night. I am not sure if the trees still have leaves on them up in that area, but if they do, one would have to be concerned about power outages.
The good news, this is a quick-hitting storm and will be out by Wednesday night followed by warming the end of the week.
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Henry, Good morning from Monmouth Junction 08852 New Jersey It's 10:26 Am and it's snowing very hard and sticking to grass, trees and starting to stick to the ground I've never seen snow this early before
I read your blog every day in the fall/winter I'm a snow plowing contractor and the last three years have been bad to say the least, hopping for a snowy winter this season.
Thank You
Ken
Posted by Ken Desmond | October 28, 2008 9:32 AM
Henry,
Rain in Mercer County, NJ changing over to sleet and snow as of 9am on Tuesday morning. Winds are picking up as well.
Posted by Doug M. | October 28, 2008 8:19 AM
Good call, Henry. At 8:45, it was pouring down huge, wet snowflakes here in Lawrenceville, NJ, just north of Trenton.
Posted by John | October 28, 2008 8:15 AM
Henry,
Good call on the leaves on the trees re: possible power outages in NNY. Many of the trees in Watertown NY still have leaves on them, although they are defoliating slowly, so I would guess power outages and some tree damage is to be expected here. Keep you posted.
Steve Ricci
Posted by Steve | October 27, 2008 9:24 PM
How about bringing some snow to the Moosehead lake region of Maine? Too bad the storm is going to the west of us.
Posted by Matt | October 27, 2008 8:11 PM
Wow, oh boy can't wait for this one as this is a good negative tilted storm and ytou can now see thunderstorms that are developing near the Carolinas, as this storm is now exploding big time!!! In winter time these thunderstorm would be violently thrown up and over the Arctic Air and you could have snowfall rates as much as 3 inches an hour with some thunder for effect. Maybe just maybe we could get one of these in late January or early February this coming winter!!
Frankie from Brooklyn
Posted by Frank LaCirasella | October 27, 2008 6:20 PM
looks like I might be right for saying it may like the infamous October 1987 snowstorm
Posted by blair | October 27, 2008 5:47 PM
I would like to know how i had sleet in carroll county, Maryland this afternoon. Some people even said there were a few flakes flying around!
Posted by Greg | October 27, 2008 2:49 PM
Henry,
This seems like the first genuine tease of the season. We're down here in Hunterdon County NJ and just slightly above the Rt 78 "snowline." But your snow area doesn't appear to dip that low. I hope this doesn't presage things to come. My bro-in-law Frank lives up in Morris County. I don't want him calling me to tell me he's out trekking in a whiteout. But that shaded snow area seems like it could hit northern Morris.
Whatever you're doing, you need to push that southern snow line down about 30 miles from here on through Spring. It would be very much appreciated.
Carl Rachel
Posted by Carl Rachel | October 27, 2008 12:05 PM