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Before I get to the long range stuff, it is Victoria Day weekend obviously. If you have a question about the weather this weekend for a particular destination just drop me an email, I will get back to you ASAP.
Neat visible satellite image of the snowcovered mountains and glaciers over British Columbia and Alberta from earlier today....
The newly updated European model monthly forecast for North America was just released yesterday. The most glaring thing I see from the forecast is the reflection of the cooler phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The model is now clearly seeing this and is forecasting below-normal temperatures right along and just off the West Coast of North America from Alaska to Southern California through a good part of the summer.
The model also continues to forecast some upper atmospheric blocking (ridge of high pressure) between Labrador and Greenland through July, similar to what we are seeing currently in May. The blocking then backs off to the northeast (eastern Greenland) by August.
Here is how I interpret what the model is forecasting in terms of the mean pattern during a particular month....
June
The model predicts a weak upper-level high (ridge) near the Aleutians and just north of Labrador. There also appears to be a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.
Possible impacts....
--Very warm compared to normal over the Intermountain region of the western U.S.
--Cooler and slightly wetter than normal in British Columbia down through Washington and Oregon.
--Above-normal temperatures in northern Canada, but cooler in the Arctic region.
--Slightly cooler than normal for eastern Canada and the Maritimes.
--Above-normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions for the western prairies.
--More thunderstorms compared to normal over Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
--Wetter pattern over the Northeastern U.S.
July
The model predicts fairly similar upper-level conditions as those for June.
--Drier than normal over the Southwestern U.S.
--Cooler and slightly wetter than normal from the Pacific Northwest coastal region then up into western BC.
--Hot across the interior West of the U.S. and southwestern prairies.
--Near- to slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures from the Midwestern U.S. through the Northeast and into eastern Canada and the southern Maritimes. More widespread showers and thunderstorms compared to normal from the Midwestern U.S. through the Northeast and into eastern Canada.
--Not a hot month for the Southeast U.S according to the model., but I fear the lack of moisture in the ground could actually make it hotter than normal due to a reduction of evaporative cooling.
August
--The immediate West Coast remains cooler than normal from Oregon through BC.
--A hot month relative to normal from the U.S. Rockies into the central Plains, including the southwestern Prairie region of Canada.
--Temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. and eastern Canada are near normal.
--Greater-than-normal rainfall along the Gulf Coast.
--More widespread showers and thunderstorms compared to normal over Ontario, the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
--More humid with possible tropical rainstorm influences over the coastal Maritimes and Newfoundland the second half of the month.
I will post the new weekly long range stuff later this weekend.
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Brett, Love your site and your blogs, cant start the day without checking it. I live in the catskills of NY. I hear that the ocean temps may be warmer this year along the east coast. If thats correct, you would assume that we have better chances for tropical systems to make land fall more North this year. (Reply: I think we do this season..) Are the wind patterns also going to be favorable for steering these systems toward the Northeast? (Reply: More favorable than average). My friends tell me Im crazy when I say that we can get tornadoes in these mountains............I said all we need is a tropical system to make landfall up here and with that tornadoes could spawn inland-what are your thoughts?
Reply: If you have enough warm, humid air drawn in and a circulation center going to your west there is always that chance, but it is small.
Thanks, BRAD-DELHI, NY
Posted by Brad Vohs | May 31, 2008 8:50 AM
hi
how is the weather going to be in the northeast during the summer.
Posted by nick mcelroy | May 30, 2008 10:55 PM
This information is very helpful. Can you point me to any projections for severe weather this summer? Are we more or less likely to see severe patterns (heat waves, tornados, and hurricanes). I work with clients in power management issues and they are asking if the risks are increasing this summer.
Thank you
Phil
Reply: Philip: What area are you talking about?
Posted by Philip Michel | May 27, 2008 7:47 AM
Hi Brett, what is the percentage of rightness (precision) about your European model. Environment Canada predicted last 2 week a dry and above normal temperature for eastern Canada. Env. Can. told us that there's about 50 to 65 % of precision depending on the region. Who believe ?
Reply: Tough to say, I never did a study on that, nor have I seen one, but I will say that the model is one of the better ones when it comes to the long range.
Posted by Marco | May 20, 2008 11:06 AM
Your model is not being very nice to us in Western Oregon. I hope it is wrong. The good part if it is the case is that it will good for keeping down forest fires. It will be okay just as long it is not so cool that being outdoors is not comfortable.
Posted by Robert Kneale | May 19, 2008 3:25 PM
Where can I find more information about the model you are using/relying on?
Thanks!
Patrick
Posted by Patrick M | May 19, 2008 10:38 AM
Where can I find more information about the model you are using/relying on?
Thanks!
Patrick
Reply: It is in house and we pay a fee to get access to
the model. It is a long range model from ECMWF.
Posted by Patrick M | May 19, 2008 10:38 AM
Brett they were saying wet for last summer but it did not happen and we need lots rain not for flooding but for the grass because it is turning brown and if we dont get rain we will have a very bad forest fire season in bc
Posted by mark | May 18, 2008 12:13 PM
Brett they were saying wet for last summer but it did not happen and we need lots rain not for flooding but for the grass because it is turning brown and if we dont get rain we will have a very bad forest fire season in bc
Posted by mark | May 18, 2008 12:10 PM
I'm confused. First you said it would be cooler along the west coast this summer and then in your details you tell us its going to be hot and dry in Southern California. Which is it?
Reply: First off, I am just interpreting what the model is showing, it is not my own forecast. The model is showing cooler than normal conditions right along the West Coast this summer, with wetter than normal conditions over the Northwest and drier over the Southwest compared to normal.
Posted by Jack | May 17, 2008 12:41 PM