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Jesse Ferrell [Bio] [Email Me]
Monday, October 05, 2009 8:01 AM
Tropical Storm Grace Off Europe Coast!

UPDATE: I didn't shown any satellite pictures of Grace because that area of the world is dicey as far as satellite coverage, but the boys over at the CIMSS Blog have uploaded some good shots.

Here's a bizarre image that I just pulled from our Google Hurricane Tracker (PREMIUM | PRO):

For updated info on this storm, please monitor our Headlines (shown at right),
Breaking Weather News Page (PREMIUM | PRO), and our Hurricane Center (PREMIUM | PRO).

That's right, that's a storm (named by the NHC, our government agency that issues official hurricane forecasts) off the coast of Europe, heading towards the U.K. The storm has 70 mph winds this morning so there is a slight chance it could increase to hurricane strength before weakening and being absorbed by another low pressure system.



FORECAST MODEL TRACKS AS OF THIS MORNING

That hasn't stopped some of the weather forecast models however from tracking her remnants through the U.K. and into Russia, though none say they will have hurricane-force winds in the future.

This may remind you a Tropical Storm Vince that I blogged about in 2005. He was the first Tropical Storm to ever make landfall in Spain. But with this one moving northeastward into cooler waters instead of east, I don't think she has much of a chance of appearing in the history books.

At the time, Vince was said to be the farthest east-forming Tropical Storm, forming at -19.20 latitude and today he maintains that record as Grace is still a hair to the west at -20.30 (lat decreases as you move east).


FORMATION POINTS OF GRACE & VINCE

Other tropical storms of interest in this area include 2005's Tropical Storm Delta which lost Tropical characteristics just before it hit the 20th parallel and transitioned to an Extratropical Storm which nearly made it all the way to Africa) and Hurricane Gordon which transitioned to an Extratropical Storm east of the 15th parallel off the coast of Spain.

AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) is furious that the NHC named this storm and said in his blog last night:

This would have never never never never been named until the recent agenda driven forecasting, as outlined in a Miami Herald expose over a year ago, started. I can not believe the director of the hurricane center is allowing this. Again.. closed rotary circulation over water warmer than 25C gales in one quad, name it and leave the name on. This is not in water over 25c. They have said themselves that sat pics and wind profile is not reliable as reasons for not naming storms before. There is no excuse for this out of the National Hurricane center... naming a storm at 41 north, 20 WEST over 21c water... 4 c under the accepted criteria, and in light of the nonsense they have pulled with storms that have done damage to US coastlines without names, the most recent the storm that hit Jersey on Sept 11.

Categories: Hurricanes
Posted by Jesse Ferrell on Monday, October 05, 2009 8:01 AM
| Comments (4) | Post A Comment
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Comments (4):
Aram:

The NHC has now outed itself as just one more bunch of shills for the AGW three card monte game.

If this keeps up, we won't be able to take any weather authority's word at face value. Thank goodness for the few Joe Bastardi's who place professional integrity over popularity.

Posted by Aram | October 6, 2009 7:49 AM

JS:

The problem is that tropical storm/hurricane history is used by many different groups to prove their agenda. The most obvious of which is the AGW crowd, many of whom continually point to increased tropical storm activity as evidence to support their doomsday scenarios. This is another example of a storm that would not have named years ago, artificially pumping up storm numbers in ways that will be conveniently forgotten when the data is presented by these groups. It seems like the last two or three years, we have at least two or three examples each year of this kind of storm.

Posted by JS | October 5, 2009 2:56 PM

Don Pignolet:

If the purpose of the NHC is to warn of hazardous cyclonic storms, why not name the hazardous winter storms and gales that affect both costs of the US mainland? Names would give more respect to life threatening snowstorms, nor'easters and the tremendous winter storms of the Pacific Northwest.

FROM JESSE: Yes, it is a slippery slope. Perhaps they could be responsible for those during Tropical "Season", say Jun-Oct, which are most likely to be tropical, and NOAA's HPC could take over for Winter storms.

Posted by Don Pignolet | October 5, 2009 2:40 PM

Michael D. HOust:

Circular storm, convection, sustained 74+ mph winds sounds like a hurricane to me. Except its called a polar low if it forms above the arctic circle. Polar low doesn't mean squat to most of the world, myself included. Call it a hurricane and that makes all the difference.

Frankly, the temperature of the water over which the storm formed, and it's location, is irrelevant, except from a purely scientific meteorological viewpoint.

The purpose of bulletins from National Hurricane Center is to warn the public of not just tropical storms; but of all hazardous cyclonic storm conditions.

While the mission statement of the NHC is focused on tropical weather, in reality they deal with world-wide conditions. Grace may technically be an extra-tropical cyclone, but calling her a tropical storm works better at getting other governments, government agencies, and the public to make necessary preparations.

FROM JESSE: (Channeling Joe here) If that's true then where were they earlier this season when storms damaged the North Carolina and New Jersey coast earlier this season?

Posted by Michael D. HOust | October 5, 2009 12:32 PM

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