UPDATE (9 PM): Gustav is looking a little better on satellite now and TWC is talking that it may hit as a major Category 3, because NOAA's hurricane hunters have reported dropping pressure. Tonight, keep an eye on PSTL1, a coastal station on the southeasternmost Louisiana [Google Map]... they are getting the outer rainbands now and are gusting to 54 knots (LIVE GRAPH).

UPDATE (7 PM): The only observation anywhere close to the storm this afternoon was from a ship considerably to the Northeast of the storm which reported 36-foot waves and sustained winds of 78 mph (NDBC). Buoy #42003 which I quoted this morning made it to 78 mph with 34.4 foot waves before disappearing from the scope - it probably became adrift, which it has had a habit of doing this year. Here's a regional shot from AccuWeather.com RadarPlus showing wind (arrows), pressure (colors), satellite and radar at 7 PM:

Interesting Comments From The Media:

1. 1.9 million people have left Louisiana, according to estimates. Less than 10,000 people remain in New Orleans (Governor via FoxNews).

2. A military spokesman on CNN pointed out that if people would text-message, rather than calling, on their cell phones today, the cell phone system would be more likely to not die due to traffic. This is an interesting technological development I hadn't thought of.

3. A levee spokesperson on Fox News said that the Category of the storm surge is irrelevant when it comes to storm surge and that Katrina, a Cat 3 at landfall, produced a Cat 5 storm surge. I am mystified by this comment since the Saffir Simpson storm surge scale is clear. What he should have pointed out was that the direction of the storm surge at landfall is what is most important. The government has a storm surge model which predicts it; the probability of a 4-foot storm surge is shown below - you can see 8 foot here. This AccuWeather forecast indicates a 10-18 foot surge may occur in southeastern most Louisiana. AT THIS TIME the government map below would indicate that storm surges of over 8 feet only have a 20-30% probability of happening in New Orleans. But, it will only take one levee break to flood the city like during Katrina.

ORIGINAL POST:

We said in a press release this afternoon something that I was tempted to say this morning: Hurricane Gustav's time to turn into a monster like Katrina is over. The storm is disorganized with no eye, and may not even be the Category 3 strength that the last NHC bulletin claims.

UPDATE: I've tagged all my old Hurricane Katrina posts in "Categories" to your right, if you're interested in taking a trip down memory lane for that historic storm.

LIVE SATELLITE OF "GUSTAV" (PREMIUM | PRO) | BUOY/SHIP OBS (NEW!)

Model Spread Maps FOR GUSTAV & HANNA [JessePedia] courtesy the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. ARCHIVE AVAILABLE!

Why then all the media hype of Gustav being a Cat 5 right now? The problem was, we meteorologists were hoping for a "biblical" storm and were looking only at sea-surface temperatures, which is only part of the equation. We either ignored, or didn't see coming, the affects of an upper-level trough/low to the west which not only directed Gustav on his present path, but kept him from strengthening today. AccuWeather.com Senior Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said in an interview,

"Gustav lost some energy as it moved over Cuba for six hours. Now an upper level feature has developed which is creating a southwest wind flow high in the atmosphere. This southwest sheer is causing the hurricane to tilt slightly to the northeast -- if you've ever put your finger on a spinning top, and watched it start to get slower and wobble erratically, you can imagine how the asymmetrics of the storm are causing it to lose intensity."

That said, there are three important things to state:

1. The storm is still near the strength that Katrina was at landfall and will still cause considerable damage.
2. The levee system in New Orleans may still fail due to the different approach angle of this storm, or because they weren't strong enough for a Cat 3 storm
3. A much-better-prepared coast has evacuated better and less lives will be lost because of it.
4. The storm will slow down after landfall, creating extensive, perhaps historic flooding where rain will be measured in feet.

Below is the current prediction from the GFS Forecast Model [JessePedia] for rainfall over the next week. Black areas indicate over a foot.

Much like Fay, we will likely see amounts in excess of that, probably over 20 inches, possibly three feet as we did with Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. I will never forget putting this graphic on the AccuWeather.com Headlines:

Here's an eerie photo of downtown New Orleans last night - in stark contrast to Hurricane Katrina, when the bars were filled with people - and the media.

Police patrolled the streets in the French Quarter of New Orleans, Saturday, Aug. 30, 2008. A million people took to Gulf Coast highways Saturday, boarding up homes and businesses and fleeing dangerous Hurricane Gustav by bus and automobile as the season's most powerful Atlantic storm took aim at Louisiana. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Posted by Jesse Ferrell on Sunday, August 31, 2008 5:48 PM
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