UPDATE: Comments from Joe Lundberg and NHC added to the bottom of this entry.

ORIGINAL ENTRY:

Here's a look at the surface wind pattern (WRF Initialization) from AccuWeather.com RadarPlus at 10:30 AM. Note the existence of strong, possibly tropical storm-force winds in the eastern sections of the storm. The circle in southeast North Carolina is where I'll be next weekend - guess I'll be a week too late! Something similar happened back in 2004 when I *was* there... called Hurricane Alex. Check out radar, maps and photos that I took here. Good times!

WIND SPEED, LIGHTNING

VISIBLE SATELLITE, WIND SPEED, LIGHTNING

AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) said in his blog:

The low-level circulation is still west of the main convection, but pressures are down to about 1011 and a nice looking band has formed east of the center. This should traverse the coastal waters within 50 miles of the coast, and I have no change from the "alarming" ideas below because I believe them. Where I am having trouble is trying to figure out whether this gets caught enough to hit southeast New England (mainly the islands) on Tuesday or Wednesday.

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE THREAT INCREASING FOR CAROLINAS.

The rapid organization of banding features of the system that we are jumping on has me concerned that this could be more than just a tropical storm if it reaches its full potential. I don't see any reason for this to go ashore for 60 to perhaps even 84 hours and the water is warm, the outflow excellent and the overall pattern is such that this is a great case for development in close. The call here is for a tropical storm or perhaps hurricane to be within 50 miles of the NC coast by Sunday.

Our Breaking News Story and Atlantic Hurricane Discussion (see links above) are more conservative, saying:

The tropical low currently spinning in the warm water immediately off the Southeast coast will continue to ride up the coastline today into the weekend. The low has potential to strengthen into a depression if it remains over the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Little wind shear overhead has also made the atmosphere more conducive for tropical development.

"This system is right where it has to be to develop and indeed it could do so," says AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matthew Rinde. "Since it does exhibit some tropical and non-tropical characteristics at this time, it is conceivable it will become a subtropical depression or subtropical storm over the next 24 to 48 hours, as long as it remains over water."

AccuWeather.com meteorologist Joe Lundberg (PREMIUM | PRO) says in his blog:

It is over warm water, and the thunderstorms that have been flaring up overnight and this morning are showing signs of banding together. Of the three, this one will probably be classified more quickly in my estimation, as the radar and satellite imagery all point to a developing storm. Surface observations seem to be pointing toward this as well. The track of this storm is going to be very, very crucial to its development. If it even hugs the coast, it may not ever become much more than a depression or minimal tropical storm. But if it can keep a good part of its circulation even 50 miles from shore through the weekend, it could be a very potent storm.

The NHC [JessePedia] doesn't seem concerned, saying:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA... AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Posted by Jesse Ferrell on Friday, July 18, 2008 10:39 AM
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