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Bertha is "sleeping with the fishes" as they say (do they say that?) and will be no threat to land, even Bermuda, according to our latest track. She's a far cry from the track we predicted on Sunday (but to be fair, so were the models... I mean we're not making this stuff up!). A comparison between Bertha 1996 and Bertha 2008 is shown below.
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One interesting note: Bertha 2008 became much stronger, much sooner than 1996, reaching Category 3 status where '96 was only a Tropical Storm.
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" I mean we're not making this stuff up!"
Actually, you're using models to make this stuff up! The predictions are computerized concoctions, IOW. Models that use unverified (unverifiable) equations with variables and constants partially set by hand is a de facto expression of the modeler's opinion.
Posted by Brian H | July 10, 2008 11:42 AM
The fact that Bertha blew up to Cat 3 in a short period of time, with the track earlier of a near NC landfall are two examples that forecasters still cant produce accurate data. The track was so far off from earlier model runs -its like computer model (snow storm hype). Unbelievable!
FROM JESSE: It is indeed like winter storm hype, the models are really not much better whether predicting hurricanes or blizzards beyond a few days out.
Posted by Kim Roland | July 9, 2008 11:07 AM
We are going too leave computer models
alone whenit comes too hurricane movement
Lets go back too the days of the
1950's
Posted by Derrick Cornell Cephas | July 8, 2008 4:50 PM