we are moving from lansing michigan to paragould arkansas... i will miss the cold and snowy weather of the great lakes.... i am wondering if in the paragould area we will see any snow or if it is going to be another very icy winter? should wish you could mail snow to me!
thanks dianne kinder

i new we where gonna get a big one i just hope its all snow and no ice

I am looking forward to your promising projection for some big snow in Ohio this winter!

Hi Henry..

Just took a minute to see what our local guys have to say about the upcoming winter here in Pittsburgh, and from the looks of it, they are just reposting what NOAA is saying which is pretty much completely the oppositie of the forecasts coming out of Accuweather. Of course, as a snow bunny myself, I am hoping yours is right on! :)

It amazes me how many of our local meteorologists seem to love the warm weather. It cracks me up how all they do is complain when it goes below 40.. sheesh, I say, move south if you don't like snow! lol We need to get some people who actually like winter to forecast here in Pittsburgh, JMO. :)

Keep up the great work!!

I also have to agree that it seems as though Pittsburgh is in for a very harsh winter. One of the strangest things that I have seen recently was tons of birds which already seem to be on their journey flying south since late September. I've lived in Pittsburgh for 15 years, so I wasn't here in 1993, but I don't believe I've ever noticed birds leaving this early... Maybe I just haven't been paying close enough attention in the past? In any case, I wasn't really thinking much about the weather until I saw these flocks of birds leaving, so I have to assume that something must be a little off in order for this to have grabbed my attention. One thing that is definitely strange though, is that I saw a flock of mallard ducks leaving the other day and I think mallard ducks are usually one of the last groups of birds to fly south for the winter; I've been told they usually don't leave until mid to late November. I hope everyone has some food stored away like the animals have done, so that you aren't forced to brave the harsh weather for a meal.

Henry I am complete agreement with your prediction... I Lived in Latrobe, PA for my entire life and I am definetly seeing signs of a bad winter a-foot! Cool summer, snow in the forecast in mid october, as others said animals gathering a lot of food, etc... Not to mention the Pittsburgh area is due for a blizzard of 93'kind of winter! Way past due! for a winter such as that! I'm a pretty big winter weather nerd, so need less to say I pay close attention to each winter, and I gurantee this is going to be one to remember!

hi i have always watched your forcast an liked it an count on you to tell me what i like to here, lol i am a big snow lover i make lots of money when it snows an i hope what is talked about up there is going to comes true, i would lov to see a foot a week in the baltimore air... i no others are saying the same thing about a cold an snowy winter i am so siked let it snow now lol... thanks henry an would lov to here back from you with some more good snow news...

take care
JAY M...

I hope you are right! I love COLD Temps and HEAVY SNOW!!!
If we got even the normal 16 inches in Evansville I would be sooooooo happy!!!

This is great!!!
Good news for the ski industry in the northeast.
When we have the forecast and meteorologists on our side its a win win situation!!!!
Bring on the snow!!!

im sry but i hope this winter's snowfall will be very huge for everyone! i love the snow alot! white christmas to all and to all a good nite!

Henry,

I too (like the person below me) am from Pittsburgh, PA. I've been hearing alot of talk around the city and outskirts that we could have a repeat, or even worse storm than the blizzard of 1993 this year. That is a rumor, obviously. However, i am convinced and all signs point to a colder and snowier winter for Pittsburgh this year :)

Myself, and im sure many others, are 100% convinced that this could be a very harsh winter this year.

I just read your winter prognostications and was quite intrigued. Southwest Virginia(Roanoke) does seem long overdue for a snowy winter. I am kind of a winter weather geek...lol..as I have been keeping records of winter temperatures and snowfall amounts since 1991. The only true winters we have had in Roanoke since I have been keeping my records have been March of 1993...only due to one infamous blizzard, the winter of 1996 and the very bitter cold winter of 1994 where we had 3 or 4 crippling ice storms. I think you may be accurate for this year as we are going into a cooler pattern due to sunspot activity I have researched and the current jet stream pattern trends. I am in my late 30s and would like to see at least one more good snowy winter while I am still half-way young. If you are incorrect, people shouldn't criticize you though because meteorology is a very inexact science. The Farmers Almanac called for us to have a very cold and snowy winter last year and they were dead wrong as we were average in temps with MUCH below normal snow...our only true snow falling on March 1st. Anyway, this snow buff hopes your prediction goes into fruition.

I live in Pittsburgh PA and I came to this site and blog to see what the weather predictions for winter are because the birds are emptying my large feeders in a day and the squirrels are doing the same. I've been feeding these creatures since 2003, and have never had this much activity. I think animals can often sense things. I think maybe I need to buy snow tires!

I live in central Pa. I believe we are in for a very cold and snowy winter. There is alot of feed in the woods this year for the animals. The last time there was this much feed we had a huge snow and the power was out for a week. I will be prepared this winter. All signs are pointing that you are right on.

Henry, Henry, Henry,
As much as I respect your knowledge and your professionalism, your winter forecast for eastern Ohio is wrong. The winter will be warmer than normal, so we don't have to pay outrageous heating bills. Snowfall will be less than normal, so my agency will not have to spend a fortune on snow and ice control.
Please revise the forecast to reflect my wishes.
Thank You

Snow Day,
Can you spell P.E.?

The idea that you can accurately predict snowfall amounts is ludicrous, no meteorologist can do that you by attempting to do that it puts a false idea in the general public that as a meteorologist we have the ability to do that for the seasonal forecasts which is entirely not true. Also, ice in the mountains? Who does that as a Student of Meteorology I figured that was common sense.

Henry please take the ice out of the spine of the Apps. At our elevation its always rain to snow or snow to rain never any ice its always east of Ashville into the piedmont of NC and upstate SC. I have been living here for 27 years maybe a little sleet but there is no grey area here snow or rain thats it buddy nice forecast looks like you did your homework on this one. I will be waiting for the big daddy this year.

The Washington DC Metro Area hasn't had a major snowfall or above average winter since the 2002/2003 season. The Presidents Day Storm of 2003 was a whopper which helped give the area a seasonal total of 45 inches or more, especially north of the city.



For those curious, the longest "lull" between above average winters or seasons with large snowfalls over the last 40 years has been 6 years and no longer.



Well folks, it has been 6 years and we are due, from a historial perspective here in the Washington DC Metro Area. It is now inevitable and only a matter of "which month, which week and which day(s) this winter. Fasten your seat belts and get ready for a fun ride this season! :-)

Base on your forecast, I see at least 2 big time snowstorms for Tennessee this winter. The amount of cold air available and the southern storm track has big daddy written all over it. Maybe even another superstorm!!!

Wow!~ It is one thing to disagree with someone, but the absolute disrespect that some of you have is ridiculous and you should be ashamed of yourselves. If you disagree.... fine.... state your reasons and go. You need not to get personal and act like spoiled brats! Sorry, but this makes me sick. Henry does not have to do this at all..... then you would griping about that too! Some of you need to look in the mirror~! You are unbelievable!

I've been looking forward to this forecast for a month! I certainly hope you're right about a snowy winter in the Shenandoah Valley. Winter days full of rain showers are very disheartening. C'mon Big Daddies! And even nice little skiffs of 2-4 inches are welcome.

In the last few years i think henry has turned into a bit of a snow nut. 102 inches in worcester is a lot of snow, and the city of worcester is just over budget for snow year on a normal year. I don't think it's impossible though, because i do see a storm track coming up the east coast, But to produce more than 100 inches we would have to have at least on 16-24 incher. And I must say i sure hope your right because the more snow the better.

henry i hope your right but i think your wrong im just basing this on how our past winters here in york have been last year everyone called for lots of snow in december and nothing came of it here maybe a three or four inches all of dec and nov but im hoping still your right !!!!and im wrong have a great week

Ok... must say for those who're unhappy with over 100" of snowfall seriously... those of us in the south like TN, GA... come on... we would love to see 1/4 of that snow here. enjoy it... looks like we're in the ice zone... not too fun making ice angels and throwing an ice ball....hurts

We will see, but considering how cold it has gotten this early already, this forecast very well may hold up. It really catches my eye as I live in far Western Maryland, which as you can see on the map averages 80-100 inches a year. Could this mean we are in for 160-200??? Flurries were already reported in the area last week, and the 15 day calls for a rain/snow mix on Tues for us. Even if we don't see snow then, its crazy to be in the forecast in mid October. It has actually been a while since I can remember an October this chilly. But like I said we will see, it is still very early.

Thanks Henry if this is true I work for a landscaping company and we get paid extra for snow work so this winter may just put a new kitchen and bathroom in our house.

Q What is worst than a Big Daddy in Harrisburg?

A A BIG MAMA ie: 1993 and 1996

You are just jumping on that old cold snowy winter forecast.I hate it & I'm sick of hearing it. With luck it will be a mild winter with a low amount of snow.

I am a snow contracter in stony brook long island I love you forcast and hope it pans out!!

Nice.. This forecast doesn't disappoint.

Wow! Love this forecast. I'm in Erie, PA, and up here in lake effect country, I am a little concerned that it's going to be a little too cold for lake effect this winter. If it's as cold as it seems like it's going to be, Lake Erie will freeze by the end of December. Not good for us snow lovers here.

Although Lake Erie froze last year (by late January), we are coming off of the second snowiest winter in history last year when we received 145.9"...so maybe we'll be fine.

Either way, bring it on. I am SO EXCITED for winter this year!! Even USA Today is promoting the cold forecast! http://www.usatoday.com/weather/forecast/2009-10-04-winter-cold_N.htm

Henry, I love your forecast and hope it comes true. I live in Phila and this would be a fantastic winter for snowlovers such as myself. Personally, I believe that the coming El Nino is going to be one of the strongest and longest on record. And the Atlantic is also above normal temperature-wise. This will result in almost no snow or cold weather over most of the US, with Calif getting their 1st rainy and stormy winter in sometime.

i love you! you made my day! my WEEK! MY YEAR!!!!! i hope you are right about the pittsburgh area!!! i'll be following your blog throughout the winter - and my coworkers will hate me as i jump for joy over snow!! thanks, henry!! - alyson

Henry, excellent way to post the forecast especially for us non scientist. Very easy to read and understand. Great Job!!!!!!!!!

I'm afraid Hank might have hit the nail on the head. I hope not though.

Henry- you could almost have a weekend debate ( Winter Forecast) at the science center on the merits (pros and cons) and variables associated with your analysis.

Enjoyable as always!!!!!!!!!

Lol.. Naturally.. Thanks for the hard work Henry..

I like this forecast very, very much! I live in Southern Maine, and I also live for Snowstorms! Thanks Henry!!!

Well in the 1995-96 year winter (which is similar snow fall wise according to Hen) started early in late Nov/Dec. I believe so we will see in 8 or so short weeks if this correct as if we don't start strong it will not come to bear. That you can bet on as we need probably 15" in Dec. to make that forecast.

funny... those who say henry has a bad forecast, or its inaccurate, and is bad at forecasting don't seem to have a reason, or a degree in meteorology like henry to back it up... isn't that a shame...

Can't say I disagree with the forecast in general, but can't say I agree, either.

However, you gave Rochester and Syracuse all-time record snowfalls, which is unlikely in and of itself, but also left Buffalo with a relatively 'normal' above average snow total of 128", versus their all-time of 199.4", so it isn't exactly fitting in with the region, unless there is a primarily NW flow(like last year; BUF was average, but ERI, JHW, and SYR were at near record amounts into February). But, if there's a NW flow, then Erie, Pa and Cleveland would be at near-record amounts like SYR and ROC.

Any way you slice it, if your forecast is right, it's going to be a big lake effect year. :)

To Snow Day: "My winter forecast update comes out October 15th on my site. Click my name."

Sorry, but no thanks. Not until you can spell on at least a third-grade level.

(verbatim)

"In pending storms"

"This only the 1st of 3 revisions of the Winter Outlook too be released."

"This first one is too highlight what I have researched ... "

Seriously ... you can't spell "to"??????

Hey Henry,
it sure looks great! now lets just hope it happens this way!
Im near philly i could use 40 inches and a blizzard!

Too much warm water in the Gulf and Atlantic. The hurricane season has been nil, and the waters have not been churned hardly at all. I can see big storms winding up along the East Coast.

I think the Northeast will be wetter than usual, but I think the main storm track will move inland, so the weather in the I-95 corridor may be a little warmer than usual.

So the coastal cities may often get a cold rain, but the Appalachians, Adriondacks, and the mountains of Northern New England could get blasted with extremely cold and snowy weather.

In Northern New England, upstate New York, inland Pennsylvabnia and the Midwest, we might see a very long Winter.......possibly into May!

Spring will be very late in those regions in 2010.

Hi, Henry!

I've been waiting for this one for some time now! Wow, what a forecast for a snow lover like me, for this part of the world where that blasted warm wedge always has seemed to sneak in over the last few winters.

You mentioned last winter, and Elliot has made similar comments, if I recall correctly, about the progressive nature of the pattern over time. Your forecast reflects that the cold air and therefore, the storm tracks and Big Daddy setup zone has moved farther south and east. JOe B's preliminary forecast does not directly contradict this , and your forecast just makes sense.

As for it being last minute, I don't think so! I I've been a weather nut for 32 of my 45 years, and I know the difference between some unmeteorologically trained mind (like some reportter doing the weather as a fill in ) and the reasoning of an experienced forecaster. You are ddefinitely the lattter, not the former! I think some interpret your enthusiasm and exuberannce as being somehow less than thoughtful about your work. Again, not so! If you have a truue passion and continued fascination with what you do, you strive to do well for it's own sake, and getting paid is like icing on the cake!! Furhtermore, I've heard you express many times that you never want to see lives lost or property damage take place. Anyone in your position who did feel that way would be twisted. I say, enjoy the process, keep leaarning, and if the outcome is what we want, wonderful! If not, keep on pluggin' away! After all, you work in sales, not management!

Gary Yoak
Vienna, WV

This is what I was looking for Henry and for you naysayers, this forecast was made by using historical forecast and so far our winter analogues will be 1904-1905, 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, and 2004-2005. You can look up those years and see that the summer before it were very similar in precip and temperature which means COOL AND WET WEATHER ON THE EAST COAST DURING THOSE THE SUMMER'S OF: 1904, 1963, 1976, 1977, 1993, AND, 2004.

I agree with this forecast im from centreville va outside of dulles every five years we average a big storm the last one was 2003 were overdue only bad thing is im not goin to there to enjoy it first winter im goin to be gone studying meteorology at mississippi state hopefully catch one over winterbreak when im back home fingerscrossed

Your forecast seems to be on point with 99 percent of the forecasts I've seen. Thanks.

Henry,

Been looking forward to this prediction for a while now, heres hoping your right!! Thanks alot!!

Brett

I just put my snow boots on.....

Predictions are as predictions go. I hope you Henry are utterly and seriously WRONG. I am rooting for an increasingly strong El Nino with the west and southwest getting copious amts of rain and snow. It is needed. I hope for not even one bit of happiness for you in your forecast when this season is over. May you have an intimate encounter with Truth.

Well, I have to say that as far as I can tell you have hit the nail on the head for the Upper Great Lakes. Here in the UP of Michigan, we barely had any summer at all, we've had several nights of frost, and it's only a matter of time until the flakes start flying. I can see a VERY cold winter setting up for us. Last year, Lake Superior froze over 90%, this year I could easily see the first 100% freeze in many years. I suppose only time will tell.

I like the forecast Henry, we have been under a persistant trough since last December with very short periods under a ridge.
I see no signs that this will end anytime soon and I see us in the Dayton area getting quite a few clipper systems with reinforcing shots of cold air frequently.
With sunspot activity at a minimum I think it will be bitterly cold as well.
The El-Nino is not strong enough to be a player.

Henry I like your forcast for the East Coast,I will be very disapointed if you are not right. Now get Joe B. on the same page.

Henery - I agree with your forecast due to the pattern over the summer. We had one of the coolest summers on record in the east and northeast. The northwest flow of the jet continues to show no signs of abaiting, in fact Michigan is calling this 'a summer that never was'. I am a snow lover so bring it on, the east is due for the big daddddy!!!!!

i was on facebook account and i seen your thing about the snow fall so i am waiting for next week to check out what you said.the forcast.

You and Joe are both calling for Pa. to have a cold and snowy winter. That's good enough for me. Heading out to buy a snowblower.

Enjoy your winter forecasts. Believe you may be right on for this winter. Colder here in Georgia and severe weather in Florida. I agree.

Hi Henry,
To say I have been waiting for your forecast is an understatement. Between yourself and Brett last year I was well prepared for our winter up here in Uxbridge, Ontario, Canada. I just wonder if you could let me know what you think we expect here just above Lake Ontario. My snowmobiling friends are all waiting to hear what you have to say as well. I know your forecasts are concentrated on the U.S.A., but, wonder if you could stretch it just a bit farther north. Have a great day.
Paul

I fully disagree with both maps for this winter. My winter forecast update comes out October 15th on my site. Click my name

Yet another wishcast forecasting a polar nightmare for the big population centers in the northeast. That the weather guys, and the various farmer almanacs, will threaten us with visions of endless snow and freezing cold is as predictable as the leaves turning in fall. Here's my wishcast: Global Warming! Please let it be true! And the sooner the better!

Hey Henry... Not to bad of a forecast and its pretty similar to what i have been seeing and thinking. Thanks for putting the forecast out for me! lol

Zack i have to disagree with your thinking. Where has there been a flat flow for an extended perion of time this year? We have had constant troughing in the east and GL for most of the late spring, summer, and now early fall. If you consider negative departures apart of a normal flat flow then there must be something im missing.

And wheres our impatient buddy Rich ? Im waiting on his comments since he was so anxious the other day !!!

Forget the naysayers, Henry. All of the historical data backs you up. When we have a colder, wet summer, we have a colder, snowier winter.

How Does Mr. Bastardi feel about this forcast for the winter. Does he have any input or does he have his own thoughts?

Henry, Is your forecast with the "Rose" colored glasses on or off? ... lol ... Just kidding, a lot of us are pulling with You man! It makes for an interesting forecast. Henry, good that you are not a weather forecaster in Mexico, "Chili today and hot tamale" would be too easy.

Now where did I see a similar winter forecast before? That's right, Henry's 08-09 wintercast:

"Starting in the West: The overall weather will be warm and dry as the ridge position remains stationary. I don't see a lot of storms hitting California . . .

For snow lovers, the Great Lakes and Northeast is the place to be as clipper-type systems will bring small amounts of snow, but frequent snow events.

I think the I-95 corridor folks from Richmond to Boston could finally have the snowstorms they so wished for. I think at least one or two major nor'easters will hit that area with snow events in the 6- to 18-inch range. "

We'll see what happens, but fool me once. . .

that is a big difference between Dayton and Cincinnati getting 28 inches and Dayton getting 47 inches.. we aren't even 70 miles each other.. but regardless.. I like the forecast. lets just hope it comes true.. 20 inches would be great improvement from last years 19 inches or so.

Man let em say this Henry this is a bold forecast where you are airing it all out......if it holds true I will be amazed as the storm track so far does not point to this at all at this point (i can see how it gets there but its not the most probably now)..temp wise it does as cold is clearly centered in great lakes and do agree the snow guns off lakes will be record setting.

Appreciate the effort.

Not going to happen Henry! I just purchased a brand new snowblower and heated cab for my John Deere tractor. That alone should be a major signal for the upcoming winter. Sorry Henry, guess i should have let you know about this BEFORE you went ahead and released your forecast.

I strongly disagree with this forecast... it does not add up to the current indications and to me is more of a wish cast rather than reality. The cold and snow WILL NOT be confined to the east this year, in fact it could be the exact opposite. Explain this current storminess across the west that has been going on for a couple months now? I see a flat flow across the central and eastern conus this winter and there are several indications that the northwest, central, and eastern U.S. could all have a cold and snowy winter. El Nino while may not be the most impressive I have seen, will likely stay in its current state through the winter with fluctuations in SST anomalies through winter(meaning there will be bursts of warmth, and then drops in activity). I'm sorry but your forecast seems "last minute" and doesn't flow with the general idea this Winter. I respect your indications though but they seem a little "out on a limb" and contradict reality.

Henry, people say your known for hype, but if your forecast proves true and Norfolk gets 15 inches then I'd probably get near 20 inches being further inland...

You've made my day...Now we'll have to wait patiently for winter to hurry up and get here to see if it verifies! :)

Good luck with the forecast!

The one thing you are not taking into account in the East is the amount of snow we are going to get before Dec. 1. I have some old picture calenders in the attic, like 100 years old, and they have snow scenes on for Novembers. Proof that Nov. was thought of as being a winter month in those times so maybe this year is the beginning of that again.

Been waiting for your outlook since summer for this winter. everything seems like its coming as planned ofr a el nino winter with a cold PDO for a change. Finally Mid-Atlantic states gets it snow share!

My winter outlook is coming up on oct 10th on analystwx.com when you can henry please check it out.

Thanks

Thanks Henry...btw my kids will love you in February (yeah! SNOW DAY - No School) and despise you in June (oh MAN! Snow make up school days?)

Will we get a peak at the forecast from the Anti-Henry?

We need about 2 blizzards of about 4 feet each...since my son is not mowing, he can be shoveling!

You have a tough call this winter so whatever happens you will get no criticism here if your wrong. There are many conflicting signals to make a concrete call this early, but take your best shot.

I don't think it's a big deal what Henry says, it's Henry, I'll give him credit with the summer forecast but if he puts any wishing into this instead of reality you can throw it out. Also if Henry is doing his forecast up to the last minute of ten oclock, how rushed does that seem, usually when people go out and do a long range forecast they usually have it done a week before. We'll see how he does.

I like this winter for the South and East also West. It's one of those where we get less of a deep trough and more a just a flat lying trough that comes in from the Southwest comes across the central US than edges its way to the Southeast or Northeast. It's a winter I have remembered years and years ago. If you look at the pattern coming this weekend. You'll see on the models how the pattern is. The cold air isn't exactly crushing because of how early it is yet, but when it does get colder you'll see that the trough pushes down forcing the storms to come into the Central or Southwestern areas in the US than once the storm moves across the US its gets a Northern push from the Atlantic ridge.

Seana

Henry,
Whats going with all the winter weather out west? Is that kind of early for the season? Will El Nino be a player this year in the winter forecast?

Sound the trumpets!
Drumroll please!
The envelope!
And the winner of the upcoming winter is...