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SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ... WHAT ABOUT THE TROPICS NEXT WEEK ... SUMMER FORECAST, MY THOUGHTS.
Severe Weather - The system coming through the Rockies today will spawn severe storms over the High Plains from Wyoming down to West Texas. This is only the start of what will be an active three days. The same system will move into the Plains tomorrow, and I am concerned that areas of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa have supercell storms and potential tornadoes. A line of storms will end up moving through Wisconsin and Iowa overnight, than regenerate into another squall line from southern Michigan into Illinois and Missouri. While wind damage and hail will occur, a few tornadoes are possible across Illinois into Missouri where the EHI values are the highest.
I am not sure why SPC removed the risk of severe weather across the mid-Atlantic Saturday. The dew points will come up into the 60s and ahead of the front and EHI values are scary high across the Delmarva and eastern Virginia where tornadoes are possible. I suspect that area will be put back into a risk of severe weather Thursday.
Tropics - The GFS continues to show our tropical system coming up the coast next week. As I said yesterday, the system becomes trapped within the westerlies and ends up producing a lot of rain across the eastern part of the country. While I am being vague today, my concern is that the GFS has been so persistent showing that system last next week. If the system comes true, this will be a major cue for the GFS model given that none of the other operational models are showing it.
Summer Forecast - Due to popular demand, I have posted my summer forecast map below. I think the overall pattern we have been in will not change very much. The West and Intermountain region will be the center of the heat, while the Great Lakes and Northeast will remain on the cool side overall. The center of severe weather will shift north into the Great Lakes and Northwest where cold fronts will cross the Great Lakes and Northeast and be the focal point for severe storms. It's one of those summers where at least one tornado outbreak may occur in areas that normally see tornadoes once every 10-20 years. One the southern edge of that severe weather zone maybe a zone of heavy rains where clusters of storms run through plus one or two tropical systems get captured in the westerlies that remain unusually far south. Through research with Joe Bastardi, we centered the hurricane risk areas along the Carolinas coast, the Gulf coast and the south Texas coast. This was calculated using a best fit pattern from recent years along with the AMO, AO and SOI values and in addition to using recent tornado activity. It's fairly complicated, but it shows that these are the areas that have highest risk for a hit by a tropical system.
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I don't know about the rest of the summer, but right now we can't even get any rain. Yesterday's storms eluded us (mid-Michigan) completely. I see that you have us in the active severe weather area for the summer. We don't often see tornadoes here, mainly damaging straight line winds. But the way that this season is starting out, nothing would surprise me.
Posted by Cathie | May 31, 2008 1:10 PM
Just wondering about the tropical system you are talking about riding up the coast. I live in eastern NC and have not heard anything about this from local forecasters. Is this the one in the southern Carribean? I cannot find access to the GFS model right now to look at anything. Thanks for your help Henry!
Posted by Frank | May 29, 2008 8:54 AM
Sorry to say Henry......
But I don't think any part of the East will see an active pattern this summer.
The Bermuda High will shunt the core of the Westerlies north into Canada in a normal summer pattern soon. In fact, we say some of this in April, when the East was warm and dry.
I don't think the East will see really active weather return again until late October.
Also, a high tropical cylcone risk for northeastern North Carolina - always means a high risk for Long Island and Connecticut (Tri-state coast). We have seen this with Bob (1991), Gloria (1985), Belle (1976), Agnus(1972), Donna (1960) and many other cyclones.
Just a thought.
Posted by Nate | May 29, 2008 7:09 AM
So I was wondering what's with the weather up here in Northern New England this year- thus far we've had night after night of frost- it's getting kinda old- any sign it will let up soon??(I know, I know- no tornadoes out here and for this I am grateful- but still wondering what the growing season is going to look like) Also- it's really really dry- need rain desperately- why the cold and dry bit?
Posted by Anita | May 29, 2008 5:31 AM
looks like new orelans is in the impact zone once again!
Posted by Arron | May 29, 2008 12:08 AM
Henry where will it come in at(the tropical system)? One observation.........today I was watching the reports about the shark attacks so early in the Pacific off of Mexico. The last time I remember the shark attacks being strong was the year of the 28 named systems. Makes me think this is going to be a strong year for the Pacific. Being warm waters with the sharks coming up.
Posted by angi | May 29, 2008 12:01 AM
That tropical system will be worth watching. I am suprised there is no forum topic for it?
Posted by Bill Turner | May 28, 2008 11:42 PM
If spring begins on march something, and summer officially began recently, then why was it snowing in Denver, Colorado (homeplace) on May 10th? I would define that one as meteo madness. Any chance of an explanation, or should I chalk it up to mother nature smoking crack again? (CO weather expression)
-JC
Posted by James Caine | May 28, 2008 10:49 PM
Thanks Henry. Now if you can make that heavy rain area turn to heavy snows in the winter forecast, I'd be very happy!
Posted by Tim A | May 28, 2008 10:31 PM
hello
I was wondering if South Jersey(Atlantic City) was in the heavy rain area due to the higher risk of tropical systems affecting the Carolinas and does that mean that I am at a higher risk in South Jersey for tropical storms or even a hurricane.
Thanks
Posted by mike adams | May 28, 2008 5:41 PM
hello
I was wondering if South Jersey(Atlantic City) was in the heavy rain area due to the higher risk of tropical systems affecting the Carolinas and does that mean that I am at a higher risk in South Jersey for tropical storms or even a hurricane.
Thanks
Posted by mike adams | May 28, 2008 5:41 PM
Hey Henry
Question i live in central PA and Do you that this summer we could see a lot of rain and possibly some bad flooding from the tropics and the severe weather
Posted by David Lewis | May 28, 2008 5:26 PM
I was wondering if southeast new york will see severe weather this weekend
Posted by nicky l | May 28, 2008 3:38 PM
Hello Henry!
Question: an illustration shows an active weather pattern for the N.-E.
Southern Quebec seems to be of the hook.
My gut feeling is that this is incorrect and that your drawing should have include your friendly Northern neighbours...
Am I right or are we really spared?
Thanks for answering. Love your comments and analysis.
Posted by Robert-Michel Lavoie | May 28, 2008 2:56 PM