Multiyear Pattern Linkage
By Mark Vogan
Produced: Tuesday, June 16, 2009
This summer's cool start across much of the US is not just a coincidence or fluke.
I believe the powerful La Nina of 2007-2008 has engraved the long-term pattern across North America with evidence of significant change during not only the winter of its occurrence, but through summer of 2008, and now driving its icy iron fist down through an increasingly chillier North America to present day. Just look at the past few summers; they have been growing cooler, more evidently the eastern US FROM 2002, when considering the significant drought which led to the extreme heat. Since 2007's blistering heat across the West and Southeast, two-straight winters of fierce cold across Alaska and Canada have laid down the carpet, and the evidence shows up in last summer’s chill from Alaska to the lower Midwest; when I say chill, I mean lack of extreme or record-breaking heat. Winter 2007-2008 was a prelude to even greater things to come in '08-'09 with a deeper but more significantly expansive distribution of significant arctic air, this time around covering much of Canada and the northern tier of the USA for much of winter, rather than smaller pockets of deep arctic air that would come and ago. That wider, deeper pool of super cold air has had a tough time shrinking, leaving Canada frigid in its interior throughout April and May into the first week of June. The tail end of that unusually cold late spring air is significantly chilling the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast and pushing the jet stream to unusual early summer positions, with the chill eye-catchingly evident on June 1 when heavy snow fell at Saranac Lake, NY, as well as in Ontario and Quebec. Mount Washington, NH reported a low of 18 degrees, and winds gusting to over 80 mph pushed wind-chills below zero. Even take last May, one of the USA’s coldest, and June 2008 brought 40 inches of snow to Browning, MT, all evidence of a cooling continent. The longer, deeper and more expansive the cold becomes, the harder it is to get rid of. The cold corridor I alluded to in winter 2007-08 simply set itself up with the strong La Nina episode that simply remained, albeit in a more modified summer state, through the 2008 summer season, but then re-fired again when winter struck early in 2008-2009 (as early as September in the Arctic thanks in part to a strong positive Arctic Oscillation). The cold of 2008 was simply there all along, strengthening through early 2009, but only the field of cold was EXPANDED, and with a strong stratospheric flip at the turn of the year, this simply shoved all the bottled up arctic cold over Canada south into the Midwest, bringing the coldest period in 15 years.
Once again, the lasting effects continue to live on, haunting the pro-global warming community as Canada experiences one of its coldest ever Mays, and that more expansive cold pool (than 2008) will stick a knife in the heat balloon throughout this summer across North America as the northern Plains, likely the Northeast, Southeast and even potentially the West, end up COOLER than normal when the June-August period is calculated. With an El Nino knocking at the door now, the equation is changed, BUT NOT FOR A RECORD WARM YEAR COMING! I believe the opposite.
La Nina of 2008 will be remembered for not only bringing once-in-a-lifetime snowfall to the American West, Quebec, Ontario and New England, as well as the Alpine region of Europe, but may have shaped the next 5-10 years, and the La Nina represents the COLD PDO, which was like a sleeping giant. The other giant appears to be reawakening after a dormancy of some 30 years, bringing many human beings into a false sense of security and also pulling the big boys of government and science out of the woodwork who "believe" they can construct a new industry in its own right and a way of getting global attention and sense of godliness for their almighty doomsday theories... manmade, elaborate and with NO EVIDENCE to support them. Thing is, we have FACTUAL EVIDENCE of global warming which was FOLLOWED, yes FOLLOWED, by exceptional cooling. Remember the 1970s? The 1930s were hotter than the 1990s when high temperatures are concerned, despite record highs breaking, it was nothing close to those records broken in the '30s that have never been touched since, then after that hot period, we saw the brutal winters return and rumors of an ice age surfaced, I wonder if those rumors will return in the years ahead, and I‘m not talking 50 years from now.
The 2008 La Nina is not the driving force here, like many would like to over emphasize, but merely a drop of paint on a brush that is painting the picture, that picture being painted is our newly evolving climate pattern, long term for the next 20-30 years. There will be many more La Ninas in that time period, plus El Ninos! The 2008 La Nina may likely have showed key evidence, a knee-jerk reaction to the cold PDO. It may very well have flipped us back to a cold global pattern, or certainly across the Western Hemisphere.
The signs may just well be surfacing now across the Atlantic, firstly with a sharp cooling down of the tropical belt of the Atlantic (2004-2005 peaked the AMO's warm period) and the sudden cooldown to the Western European Winter Cycle, which has been stuck on warm mode for 20 years plus.
When combing all this together and joining up the dots, in my eyes, this is how I see things playing out. The La Nina of 2008 raised its head, sharply cooling things down from Alaska, southward through western Canada and into the Northern states, the warm AMO continued to pump the Bermuda High into the Southeast, bringing record heat into December and keeping the Global Warming alarmists happy, better still was the warmth of the Arctic Ocean, melting off the ice to a point, and many claims circled the world that this was the least amount of ice across the North Pole ever! Or on “record” this all tied into the fact we just recently went from warm to cold PDO, and scientists know the warm mode of the PDO heats the Pacific south to north, and therefore it’s only natural that warmer northward spreading waters would warm the Arctic and melt off the ice.
Then comes the cold PDO, allow for two-four years for the adjustment, then feedback to the atmosphere above (remembering that such a huge system will take longer to charge), and finally after a few weak to moderate La Ninas and El Ninos, BANG, the one powerhouse La Nina throws the system back onto the cold side of things, and from there, it’s off to the races as far as the fight back of old man winter is concerned. Like a bear, he will hibernate when things get warm across the Northern Hemisphere, it’s spring in the Pacific’s “bear season” and he‘s up and prowling, bringing cold winters and shivers in summer. It’s still winter in the Atlantic’s “bear season,” but days are getting longer and spring will soon be knocking on the door of the Atlantic’s “bear season.” When he, like the Pacific, awakens WATCH OUT; we will be back to the 1970s once again.
Winter 2009-2010.
By Mark Vogan
Produced: Tuesday, June 16, 2009
A weak to moderate El Nino will force global warming folks to shout, "warm, warm, warm," but I am becoming increasingly concerned at what this upcoming winter may bring. Looking closely at what’s happening, the hurricane season, the winter season, and the overall bigger weather picture, and I believe the Northeast and even into the South may be in for a winter that will take their breath away.
Those shouting last December when it was 70-80 degrees across the Southeast about how winters aren’t the same and they're warm and wimpy. Well, the increasing evidence ringing clear in the cooling SST’s deep in the heart of the tropical Atlantic may force the abandonment of that nice, warm high that keeps a corridor from New Orleans to Washington, D.C. sub-tropical feeling in mid-winter and shut many up who say, "the Earth is at tipping point, look at all the warm air around, look at the blooming trees along the Mall in Washington or in Central Park." That growing blanket of hellish cold is growing by the year, and it’s knocking on the doors of those very places that plan to get the shorts out and light up the grill this December and January.
The corridor of cold shifts this winter to the East Coast, after three winters of little snow and mild temps as the El Nino will push the moderating high off the Atlantic Seaboard by a persistent trough, which may very well regularly rotate arctic air in to cause problems. I am becoming increasingly worried about a cool, wet summer in the populated Northeast from D.C. to Boston and the stage being set for the weak to possibly collapsing (by November) El Nino, which enhances the southern branch jet and has a notorious reputation of producing severe winters for this part of the country in particular. Enhance the southern jet, which sweeps across the South and up the East Coast, and pull a trough of arctic air in, and you have big cyclogenesis potential. Pull the storm north off the coast, and that trough drags frigid air straight off the Hudson Bay vortex and produces subzero air temps into the heavily populated, oil-fueled Northeast.
The potential for a severe winter, that this part of the country has not seen in 20 years, is highly possible when you consider the building cold caused by the past winters and a weak El Nino that has a bad habit of bringing a bad winter, even in warmer times. Northwestern Europe has the same type of potential as the Northeast. All you would need is to pull a few hurricanes up the East Coast, stripping away surface heat off the Eastern Seaboard, and those arctic highs may be less moderated by recent winters, where waters were warm enough to moderate arctic highs pulling down from Canada.
The only region of the country I see having a warmer-than-normal winter may be the West, where a ridge may persist as the trough drops into the East; however, this may be one of those seasons where the amount of cold availability may be such that it overwhelms the lower 48 from coast to coast.
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I feel duped by accuweather.
Allowing buchers, bakers and candle stick makers to post blogs on the weather, on a site like many of you I PAY for is not right. I have 39 years weather experience. (Everyday I go outside and look at the sky and wonder what its going to do just like the weathermen and woman...)
I'm not sure if you've ever been to Maine...but this winter took my breath away, and I'm still afraid to breath for fear of drowning.
Just a reminder: The Earth is DYNAMIC. so you would expect rising and falling sea levels and temps.
The Earth goes through an Ice Age every 25000 years, we are 10000 years from the last one. In my book that means we are in for another 2500 years of global warming before we swing toward the next Ice Age
This is no more far fetched than the Solar Flare crowd.
Posted by Kevin | July 4, 2009 10:12 AM
Well it's July 4th lets get back to work !!!! Start posting the weather ............ I pay for 24/7 365 weather updates !!!!!
Posted by Rich | July 4, 2009 8:18 AM
What a refreshing look and a new idea. I would certainly bet that Mr. Vogan has more experience than any of you that are ripping him. My suggestion to you people...enjoy the thoughts and go out and get your first girlfriend. Please relax.
Posted by Frank Ingles | July 3, 2009 2:56 AM
It was good to hear from Mark. I wanted to let him know that I had no intentions of sounding like I was trying to discredit him. Everything has a context and unfortunately, since Henry offered his weather outlook to us without context, I was a bit thrown off.
I certainly enjoy reading about what others may speculate on about the weather and I thank Mark for offering his background on weather and sharing his enthusiasm.
Weathermen, afterall, are only right after the fact. We'll all see what pans out in the future and who was correct.
Posted by DougI1 | July 2, 2009 3:39 PM
Here in SE GA, we had more frost days and below-freezing mornings this past winter than in at least the last ten years or more...a late freeze killed many of my young peach trees. That low of 48 one morning in May sticks out also.
Just finished a week in Maine, where it was still 40's to 60's each day--last week in June. Global warming? Forget it!
Posted by John Reed | July 2, 2009 8:31 AM
Two more thoughts. An El Nino does not always mean warm winters. I remember a weak El Nino
for the winter of 2003 and it was cold.
Also many years ago I remember reading that a
negative pattern is usually a dry pattern.
I assumed he was talking about the NAO.
Well I hope that that person is noting the weather
for this year. Especially for the northeast.
Posted by joe | July 1, 2009 5:46 PM
The old farmers almanac had region 2 (atlantic corridor) having below normal precip for most of April thru October. It must have been a misprint. If not I am dying to see how they spin their prediction this time.
Posted by joe | July 1, 2009 5:22 PM
I didn't see where Mark was out of line whether he has credentials or not, as a blog is an opinion and he simply offered his. While some may or may not agree, let's not hang Henry for allowing a different viewpoint and with Mark supposedly being Scottish, he probably has no political motive either.
Now for my weather thoughts. I live on the lee side of Lake Erie in the traditional snow belt area and I have to say that that it has been a rather chilly summer and it is July 1st. The forecast is for some heat in mid month then back to the chilliness we already have which according to those with weather credentials, we can expect this trend to continue. This leads me to believe that that our coming winter could be early and long as the lake hasn't warmed up and that will bring lake effect snows that much earlier and that much more often. We are currently experiencing cooler lake effect rains. My lack of credentials have no bearing on the true course this coming winter will take either but judging from what we have, it's easy to think that this winter could be severe (again). Don't get me wrong, I love a 'white christmas' but I could do with an earlier and warmer spring next year.
Posted by Chris | July 1, 2009 12:19 PM
Thanks mark for explaining your weather enthusiasm and letting us know where you're comign from.
Posted by Jim Smith | July 1, 2009 11:41 AM
Hi everyone,
Thought I would post a comment to introduce myself since many of you were wondering who this Mark Vogan is. Yes I am a native of Northern Ireland originally but have lived in Scotland for 19 years.
I am not a meteorologist but merely a baker in a local supermarket, sorry to disappoint many of you.
However, I can say this much.. I am a dedicated weather enthusiast and enjoy over the past two years joining the dotes to "what I see" with the overall climate and where I think it's going. It's my opinion, and not of Henry nor anyone else. It's good to have variety and I may be wrong, or not be "a pro" but it doesn't mean I haven't got sufficient knowledge to use and form an opinion on.
I am married, have no children and just recently moved into a new house. I also just obtained my truck license and hope to get into the trucking industry as soon as possible. As far as the weather goes, I have good experience and knowledge of the North American weather pattern and have studied this in-depth for over 10 years.
Thanks, Take care and have a great day everyone.
Posted by Mark Vogan | July 1, 2009 11:38 AM
The issue with posting an article from someone with no credentials is that Premium Accuweather is a service I pay for. I expect that for the fee I get to read the opinions of professional meteorologists and not novices/amateurs. For that kind of posting, I can go and read lay people's opinions on any number of free boards/blogs that deal with weather. Also, in the academic/professional world any article has the background, academic or otherwise, of the person writing the article. That is missing from this person's "treatise."
Posted by David | June 29, 2009 10:21 PM
What is the big deal with henry posting this article by Mark Vogan who may not have many credentials? He is simply putting a different side of the argument that can help you see all of the facts. That is what weather predicting is all about. Obtaining all the facts, analyzing them, and making a prediction. He probably put this on here for you to read it and think, Oh... those were some interesting points, and a change of pace from your everyday THE SKY IS FALLING!!!! GLOBAL WARMING!!! articles. Oh, and by the way. HENRY IS ON VACATION UNTIL JULY 3RD, in case you didnt see that in bright red all caps. He probably isnt going to defend himself or answer questions if he is unavailable!!!
Posted by Nick | June 29, 2009 6:04 PM
I tend to agree with many of the voices here about Mark Vogan. Who is he? I did a search for him and it comes up that he is 26 years old in Scotland with no credentials listed. He is just a big blogger.
I have been a big fan of Henry but now, allowing this post, or worse, placing this post with no explanation, has me thinking about looking for a better place to get my weather.
Posted by DougI | June 29, 2009 12:00 AM
The pattern will reveal itself for Winter '09 very soon so pay attention to the storm track.......I tend to agree with the assessment here although I think the track will be some south so that Delmarva folks look out and I 80 south. I cant see Boston having another record snowy winter again--what will '09 make it like 3 out 4? Who knows.
Posted by Len Brecken | June 27, 2009 10:15 PM
Addressing NJ Tom's theory that the motivation of the "snow nuts" is to discredit Mr. Gore, I have two points: (1) Snow nuts (and I am one) dream about the stuff without provocation ... hence the term "snow nut"; (2) The anti-GW folks (and I am also one) have only to examine the methodology, lack of legit scientific evidence, and political behavior of the GW crowd to cast very serious doubt on the issue of man-caused GW.
Posted by Gary | June 25, 2009 8:03 AM
THE SKY IS FALLING.... THE SKY IS FALLING!
Accuweather- Please do better than this!
Posted by Jon | June 25, 2009 7:01 AM
You go Henry!!!
Nice job. Time to put he prius driving do-gooders in their place!
Posted by Jon | June 24, 2009 3:44 PM
North America may have an increase in rain in the Northeast, colder winters might be on tap, too. However, the growing season in New England is extended.
Global measurements of temperature as well as sea level indicate systemic change, and refute your provincial opinion.
Posted by Bob Whitford | June 23, 2009 8:15 PM
It's not even July and already we have the Grizzly Adams, pro-winter crowd all across the internet longing for blizzards, power outages, busted water pipes and corpses frozen in snowbanks, just so they can say Al Gore and his cult of followers were wrong. Can we please just try to enjoy a few months of summer and save all the gloom and doom for next fall?
Posted by NJ Tom | June 23, 2009 9:53 AM
This is not local,it is the whole contienet of North America..
Posted by Chance Metz | June 22, 2009 9:28 PM
Seems to be in fashion these days to talk about a big chill. Usually it's just global warming deniers trying to make a splash -- but I hope to heck they are right!
One can only hope that the so called "global warming alarmist" have to eat crow. I am quit fond of crows myself, but I'd eat one too if they are wrong.
Posted by Howard P. Duffs | June 22, 2009 6:23 PM
Henry,
I found this article very interesting, although Mark's writing style makes this very difficult to read. I would also like to know if you agree with this in it's entirety, or if there are only certain points you agree with. I, too, would also like to know more about Mark Vogan.
Posted by Eric | June 22, 2009 2:34 PM
Morning Henry...
I am overjoyed by the prospects of this article and the implications it will have on our weather in the Southeast. I can hear the snow geese honking as I type....I may just have to make a tracking page for this winter, myself....WOOHOO!!
Junior
Posted by Junior | June 22, 2009 11:16 AM
I have to agree with Howard. The Accueweather Staff bloggers do not need to post their credentials, but Mark certainly does. I have no idea who he is except that he posts in the Accueweather Forums. I do to, but I would not trust my long-term forecast!
Plus the manner in which he writes around the topic makes it difficult to follow exactly what he is talking about.
Henry, what is your take on Mark's theory?
Posted by Doug | June 22, 2009 10:59 AM
That was an interesting post. One of the best I have read in a long time. Thanks for the exciting info!!
Posted by David Claghorn | June 21, 2009 11:49 PM
Article makes some interesting points. Only criticism is the headline, or somewhere in the beginning of the piece, should note that it was written by a third party. The Accu-Blog headline appears it was written by you.
Posted by Hank | June 21, 2009 10:08 PM
Henry:
Don't take this the wrong way...but you and Mark Vogan are the biggest winter hypers on the planet (lol). Let me guess...you guys are not big fans of East Coast beaches, summer heat/humidity, and hate sunshine....
Posted by SI | June 21, 2009 7:26 PM
I believe it is likely the global warming alarmists will live to eat crow. Last years cool season was interesting even here in the Florida panhandle. Tallahassee reported at least 1 day of freezes in every month from october 2008 through april 2009. Don't know if that has happened before.
However the current problem is this heat wave as today will be the 6th consecutive day of 100+ at Tallahassee. We need relief.
Ronnie
Posted by ronnie | June 21, 2009 5:59 PM
I am really sorry to see this posted here. I am sending this article to friends as an example of what weather and climate reporting is not. Accuweather, please do better than this, please.
Posted by Tenney Naumer | June 21, 2009 2:53 PM
Thanks for this!! I am ready for blizzards and 3'+ snow storms.
Posted by Matthew | June 21, 2009 2:43 PM
Being skeptical of the global-warming idea, I would like to give more credibility to this article, Who is Mark Vogan and what are his credentials? All I can find by Googling is that he is an "amateur weather enthusiast." As such, he is unlikely to be given much credit by the Al Gore crowd and their faithful alarmists.
Posted by Howard | June 21, 2009 2:41 PM
Short term variability in the climate, especially locally, have little to do with the long term implications of global climate change and increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
Posted by SteveH | June 21, 2009 12:07 PM
Henry;
Always like your blogs, but don't you see any connection to the decreased solar activity with sunspots at their lowest levels since 1913? When you begin to review the sun activity based on cycles the unusually cold spells of the past are beginning to be rivaled at this point.
I think this should be part of your equation as well. It certainly can't be dismissed as insignificant.
Posted by Vinny | June 21, 2009 11:10 AM