Image credit: Navy Research Lab Monterey -- NRLMRY
--Typhoon Melor in making its last dash for southern Japan. Latest word from the JTWC has Melor ranked as a Category 1 storm; however, the JMA still have Category 2 status for the typhoon.
It is clear to me that transformation from true tropical to extra tropical in nature on the part of Melor has begun based upon the asymmetry of its cloud shield. Moreover, surface air temperature and dew point over southern Japan is too low to qualify as tropical.
At the time of the above satellite shot (Wednesday night, local time), the storm center was plotted directly south of the Kii Peninsula on southernmost Honshu Island. Latest JTWC and JMA movement was northeastward at 25 knots/45 kph. Meaning that landfall over southern Honshu will happen within a few hours after this posting.
The relative coolness of air over Japan suggests to me than Melor will track somewhat to the right of that indicated by the aforesaid agencies, but I believe more likely north and west of Tokyo. The answer will be known within several hours, one way or another.
This storm is going to pour 10-20 cm of rain over much of Japan, the far southwest and far north being the primary exceptions. Amounts above 30 cm, maybe even 50 cm, will happen in southern Honshu. The area of Owase on the southeast-facing Kii Peninsula is ideally located for extreme falls of rain in storms like Melor.
Melor will sweep out to sea east of northern Honshu as a tropical storm during Thursday afternoon and evening, local time.
--Tropical Storm Parma has become stuck, all-but dead in the water in and about northern Luzon Island, Philippines. The latest plot of Parma's center had it a bit east of Iligan Point. Weak steering winds that have virtually becalmed Parma will keep it parked in the area of northern Luzon for another day or two.
The latest on Parma has it a minimal tropical storm with 35-knot/65-kph highest sustained winds. Owing to proximity to rugged northern Luzon, Parma is bound to weaken further and lose, at least temporarily, tropical storm status.
-Whether storm or depression, Parma will pose further serious flood threat to northern Luzon, the northwest most of all. This area has seen widespread 30-90 cm falls of rain owing to Parma. At Baguio, 36-hour rainfall ended Wednesday evening, local time, was near 40 cm. Thus, Parma's output in the highland city has reached one meter, or 40 inches.
-Numerical forecast models still show Parma leaving to the west of northern Luzon late in the week. Its forecast track over the open South China Sea could see a return to tropical storm status ahead of a landfall upon south China.
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sir, your idea of how this year's north-east monsoon over chennai would be ??
Posted by hemanth | October 25, 2009 2:28 AM
Dear Mr. Jim,
Your forecasts are simply outstanding. I have been following the weather pattern over last 20 years and bay of bengal can turn down events dramatically within 48 hours. From today morning there is a very clear cut sign that north east monsoon winds started blowing at chennai and hopefully by the end of this week there may be some showers to start with. Still the sky is clear but the maximum temperatures have dropped down to 34 and below.
kindly be posted development on this, as your report always sounds better.
suresh.s
Posted by ssuresh | October 14, 2009 7:00 AM
Dear Mr. Jim,
There is some change in the wind pattern in the last 2 days. Even the maximum temperatures have come down by 2 C. I suppose the north east monsoon may commence before the end of this week in chennai and other south indian coastal towns.
what is your opinion on this ?
Suresh.S.
Reply:
Dear Suresh,
I believe that there is some "playing catch-up" going on now. There is a tendency to return to what should be seen over the Subcontinent during the middle of October.
This said, I do not see any well marked shift to NE Monsoon anytime soon. Rather, I see weak pressure gradient (and thus weak wind flow) predominating as I look forward for at least the next week.
Jim
Posted by ssuresh | October 12, 2009 6:00 AM
hi! thahk you for your work.
I heard that a cyclone passed by Nha Trang in Vietnam 10/10/09 one of my friends who lives in vietnam but your site didn't mention about that.
I am wondering it is true or not.
anyway thank you for all your hard work again.
Reply:
Dear Shin,
I am aware of no cyclone at Nha Trang (or anywhere else in Vietnam) on 10/10/09. T.S. Parma will reach northern Vietnam by 14/10, but Parma was far from Nha Trang on the 10th.
Jim
Posted by shin | October 11, 2009 8:13 AM
Dear jim,you are silent and not answering question or posting
Reply:
Sorry, Shoaib. I have been away from the blog.
Jim
Posted by shoaib | October 9, 2009 11:54 AM
Dear jim:Is it possible you for to forecast winter weather in advance for karachi or south asia?
Posted by shoaib | October 8, 2009 6:57 PM
Dear jim:Is it possible for japan to recover loss very soon?What does history says?
Reply:
Dear Shoaib,
Japan has been struck hard by severe typhoons many times and so are accustomed to cleaning up and moving forward. I believe that they will recover with characteristic speed.
Jim
Posted by shoaib | October 8, 2009 6:56 PM
Dear jim:Is that type of cyclone/hurricane first time ruined japan?
Posted by shoaib | October 8, 2009 1:32 PM