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Monday, October 12, 2009 1:06 PM
Legacy of Parma

--Parma is nearing its end. As of 1200 UTC on Monday, Oct 10, this tropical storm was swirling over Hainan Dao aimed for the Gulf of Tonkin and eventual last landfall, this time upon northern Vietnam. Parma will leave behind a dramatic legacy, mostly out of northern Philippines, which bore the brunt of three landfalls.

Parma began as a tropical storm during the last days of September. As it spun away from Yap Islands, Parma wrapped into a super typhoon with winds of Category 4 intensity by the start of October. Shortly thereafter, Typhoon Parma still packed a devastating punch as its eye crossed northeastern Luzon Island.

Had Parma simply kept on tracking toward the north and west, it would have been yet another strong, destructive storm to strike the most cyclone-prone nation on Earth. There were the usual flooding rains along with destructive winds. However, thanks to interaction with the even mightier Typhoon Melor, which was working its way towards Japan, a much weakened, downgraded Parma stalled and then backed southeastward, landing once again in northern Luzon. Flooding rains, though not severe winds, returned to the area.

Parma actually slipped off northeastern Luzon long enough to claim a third landfall at about the middle of last week. Then, at last, Parma drifted westward to the South China Sea and away from Luzon on Friday.

In its wake it left more than two meters of rain (about 87 inches, by my best reckoning) over the highland city of Baguio. Half of this fell within about 30 hours ended on Friday, local time. Near to west shore of Luzon, Parma also left about one meter of rain at Vigan with nearly as much striking nearby Laoag City. And Parma dealt out half a meter of rain in Dagupan.

The above are merely climatological statistics; cold hard numbers. But the cloudbursts of rain that they bespeak unleashed devastating floods and suffering for many, many people.

--Things have really quietened over the Subcontinent now that the abortive tropical cyclone has long since died out. A segment of the Westerlies has taken hold far to the north and has flushed the northwestern half of the Subcontinent with dry air. The IMD have adjusted the line of Monsoon withdrawal well southward, albeit still short of the average alignment for the time of year.


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Posted by Jim Andrews on Monday, October 12, 2009 1:06 PM
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Comments (13):
Anuj Arora:

Iam glad the weather forumhas intervened at the right time as this mudslining has come to an end . we log on to see jims view on weather. By the way where are you ? i hope all is well

Posted by Anuj Arora | October 26, 2009 2:04 AM

Weather Forum:

Guys,

This is a weather forum. Have your opinions on political matters in some other forum.

Thanks,

Posted by Weather Forum | October 24, 2009 12:00 PM

babar:

Shoiab you just dont like Punjab, NWFP and Balochistan espeially Lahore. You should stop thinking about Karachi for once. Because our country is facing threats from all neighbours and we need to unite and join hands and stop thinking about provinces and think about Pakistan as whole.

Karachi is on the earthquake line zone in fact two earthquake lines passes through karachi. every city of pakistan is on the earthquake line.Pakistan is an earthquake region. In 1960 cyclone hit karachi killing 10,000 people and thier are reports of earthquake in the city too in the far past. On july 18,2009 at least 20 people were killed and 150 were injured in karachi. Think about the families of these people was it a happy day for them, Shoiab???

Posted by babar | October 23, 2009 10:41 PM

shoaib:

Dear jim:Anyone believe or not after 2006 to 2009 karachi infrastructure is much much better and the proff is that during ramzan 31 august and 1st september karachi got 130mm rain but on 2nd september there was no drop of water on roads and on 1st september also there was no problem on roads and alley.Now city government has promised to public that if karachi will get rain than,we will do expense.Now there is no problem with karachi infrastructure.Lahore infrastructure is worse because after just getting of 40mm rain i saw on tv that there was water on the streets and people were troubled and you believe or not that now according to karachi infrastructure if karachi gets 100mm rain than,next day you will not see any drop of water on the roads.If karachi gets good rain during 2010 than,City government will make infrastructure more strong and it's their promise and they r fulfilling their duty well so babar and we do not worry about infrastructure from now.Karachi city government is very good and has made the city perfect.

Posted by shoaib | October 23, 2009 1:55 PM

shoaib:

Dear jim:Babar does not know that in mosque during june 2009 people were praying for rain over karachi.People had been bored from two years scorching sunshine weather and wanted good rain.Believe me when it was raining heavy but people was enjoying rain and saying in our language"Allah tera shukar hai aur yeh teri rahmat hai aur is ki zarorat thi"In english they were saying"Thank god and that rain was needed"

Posted by shoaib | October 23, 2009 1:35 PM

shoaib:

I want to say to babar that people of karachi like and wants rain and it's essential for the city.During june 2009 i heard from some people that in mosque people were praying for rain because last year also there were no rains.On 18th to 19th july 2009 when it was raining than many people wwnt to ground and good location to enjoy rainy day and everybody was happy.There is no disadvantage of rain but there r dozens of disadvantages of cyclones.According to karachi location it must have good rains.If mumbai is drowned and ruined in rain than also,India will say that there was very little rain.Karachi people like rains and cloudy weather because whole year weather is scorching sunshine.if u do not believe than,come to karachi

Posted by shoaib | October 23, 2009 1:28 PM

shoaib:

Dear jim:I want to say to babar that karachi is very safe location and he must live in karachi because there is no threat of earth quake and cyclone in karachi.This is true that karachi has arabian sea but there is no threat of hurricane or earth quake.Karachi just needs good rains because there is shortage of rain over karachi.On the other hand punjab,quetta,islambad r very dangerous because they r also targated area of earth quake.Last night 6.2 magnitude earth quake hit till some minutes.Bay of bengal cyclones can also hit lahore so lahore is also dangerous location.We hope that one day karachi will have rains like dhaka and mumbai/goa.

Posted by shoaib | October 23, 2009 4:27 AM

babar:

People of Karachi do not like rains, ask any person from karachi. They say it creates havoc and rains do because of poor infrastructure. Even the lightest like 15mm rain is enough to create havoc.
Shoiab should know that karachi is situated in a desert that is why rain here is weak and Punjab and NWFP are in the northern and near mountains that is why its weather is rainy. Having cyclones and deep depression daily are not good because too many rains can cause skin diseases and malaria. Indians are not happy because some parts of india received heavy rains while the weather remained sunny in other parts of indai this year that is why they are sad. Having daily rains is not good it causes so many problems,Shoiab..

Posted by babar | October 23, 2009 4:01 AM

shoaib:

Dear jim:What about next (two to three) weeks in karachi?Must reply

Posted by shoaib | October 21, 2009 9:45 AM

shoaib:

I want to make understand people like baber by these following:
1)If indian were in karachi,They would have died/bored because there is no name of daily rains and there is no guaratee of monsoon and thunderstorms.

2)Punjab,nwfp and kashmir have approximately whole year good rain and i have many proofs like Daily in pakistani news channels forecast for rain for nwfp,punab and kashmir plus good winter rains/clouds,heavy monsoon rains/clouds,Very cold during winter and late summer.

3)Indians will never reform because they R not happy after having daily heavy rains and they want 24 hours cyclonic rains.In mumbai 26 july 2005 india lost many lives and things and most indian cities have cyclonic daily rains from june to october and lowest pressure always goes mumbai not karachi.

4)We karachi people feel happy after rains like just 200mm or 300mm yearly.This is true that we need more but we r not like indians who says after getting 1000 to 3000mm rain at many places that we had not rain.

5)History and people r and commercial geography subject in pakistan education is witness that punjab,nwfp,kashmir have more heavy monsoon and winter rains and have more cloudy days than karachi.

6)See forecast at different locations than u will come to know that nobody shows rain for karachi almost whole year and if shows than,other day it changes in to sunny.

Posted by shoaib | October 20, 2009 9:38 PM

shoaib:

Dear jim,Any chacne of partly sunny?Plz reply

Posted by shoaib | October 20, 2009 9:09 PM

Anuj A rora:

Hi Dear Jim, legacy of parma is over. What about typhoon lupit? will it infuse some energy to the weak current NE Monsoon ? regards,Anuj Arora from Chandigarh

Posted by Anuj A rora | October 19, 2009 11:16 PM

Babar:

My question is that every one is saying that El-Nino was responsible for very below normal rains in the indian sub-continent. To be honest they were because we in lahore had no rains except for few with low intensity. But why did karachi had so many rains this year? I mean 375mm rains in just two months. while the normal monsoon season rain for khi is just 137.5mm and with El-Nino it should have been 15mm.. plz reply

Reply:

Dear Babar,

I do not have an answer. I do not know. I do know that most of the rain happened during two outbursts of 1-2 days each. Take away these few days and there was very little rain. I cannot link two short-lived weather events to something like El Nino, IOD or whatever.

Jim

Posted by Babar | October 17, 2009 10:43 PM

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