(Image Credit: Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

--Typhoon Melor has weakened significantly during the last 24 hours, since the last writing of this web log. Yet, at 110 knots, highest sustained winds (JTWC, as of 1200 UTC, Tuesday) still ranked Melor near the top end of Category 3 status. Melor has nearly veered into a northerly direction east-southeast of Okinawa. Further veering during the next 24 hours will bring the storm track in line with the south shore of mainland Japan. At this time, the odds seem to favor the broad Kii Peninsula of southern Honshu, or south of Osaka.

-Numerical forecast tracks along with that of the JTWC have been adjusted westward such that the forecast path lies well to the north and west of Tokyo. If on the mark, this latest scenario bodes ill for greater Osaka (Kansai) as well as Nagoya, another major city between Tokyo and Osaka.

-Storm strength at landfall could be Category 2 -- a potentially destructive storm. Rainfall, even with the accelerating motion forecast for Melor, will reach between 20 and 40 cm in hard-hit areas. This would imply serious flooding and mudslides on this mountainous archipelago.

As for Tokyo, a track to the north and west spares it the worst rain as well as wind.

(Image Credit: Navy Research Lab Monterey)

--Parma has returned to the Philippines. In other words, the center of Tropical Storm Parma has landed over the northwestern corner of Luzon (as of 1200 UTC, Tuesday). Weak, variable steering winds have all but calmed Parma, so it will loiter in the area of northern Luzon for another two to three days. During this time, more excessive rain (another 30-60 cm) will pound northwestern Luzon (Baguio to Laoag City, where 60-90 cm has already fallen owing to Parma). This is a setup for major, long-lasting flooding.

Posted by Jim Andrews on Tuesday, October 06, 2009 12:15 PM
Permalink | Comments (1) | Post A Comment

Share this: