Dear Jim,
The tropical Cyclone sounds very interesting.
This seasons is getting to it's end and as for Pune, it seems that total rainfall was shorter than normal, I couldnt find the numbers for Pune, but for the who Maharashtra till now the total rainfall is 21% less than normal. though it seems somehow strange that for the last week we had afternoon rains and thunderstorms almost everyday, having in mind that during August which is the peak of monsoon, the consistency of rain(not the amount) wasn't like this for at least half of the month, same for July. yes of course those times that rained the amount of rain was very much significant in July and August, as it should be like this, it's only the consistency of this everyday showers that is interesting to me. and now you say we may have a few more shots of rain, I think that's very much of a good news here.

Reply:
Dear Amir,

I helps knowing that the climate in Pune (and much of the Deccan) is unlike that of the west coast and the east and north, where the SW Monsoon drives rainfall. The Deccan can actually have two rainfall maxima -- ahead and following the SW Monsoon.

btw, our data have Pune with 45% ABOVE normal rainfall since June 1st. I have not "quality checked" these data, though.

Jim

Dear jim:According to GFS temperature graph it seems that karachi will have very hot weather next week.

Dear Jim:Thanks 4 your post and your post should be updated regularly.we will wait for your next post.

What is the status of karachi and what will be its status in the coming weeks?

Reply:

Dear Babar,

Rain-free weather, somewhat hotter than usual, through at least the start of October. The week following could see some rain. I have low confidence in this.

Jim

Hi Jim,

You are right. The GFS has been hinting of a cyclone in the Arabaian Sea. While it is not the first time it gives such a forecast which proved to be false most of the time, I'm intriqued by how many consecutive runs showing the same forecast. However, it remains a long-range forecast for now. The ECMWF is also predicting a low (albeit, weaker) around the same time.

Reply:

Dear Ahmed,

It is only fitting that, one day on, the scenario is a weaker one, at least from the perspective of Karachi and Pakistan.

I do so that the MJO is forecast to become "favorable" (I cannot quantify this) for the Subcontinent towards the start of October. It is at this time that the tropical low is forecast to become established over the eastern Arabian Sea.

JIm

Dear Jim,

Medium range forecast shows that cyclone starts weakning as it moves northwards off gujrat coast.. this is link where it shows (http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/casia.fcst.html).. would do you think that this cyclone will benifit the Pakistan - India or would cause trouble... in terms of weather patterns..

Reply:

Dear Musab,

I cannot say whether the overall pattern would shift in favor or against residents of the Subcontinent. I am aware that TC Aila (on the Bay side) was "fingered" for disrupting the onset of the Monsoon, although I have seen nothing to back up such a claim.

I believe that widespread rain would be of overall benefit, barring excessive/flooding rain. This assuming that seasonal activities (agricultural, say) premised upon dry weather have not begun.

Jim

The possible cyclone in the Arabian Sea is indeed also a cause of excitement for the band of rain it may bring to central india as it traverses through from the Bay. Infact the major missing component of this year's monsoon has been the lows which normally traverse through Andhra Pradesh into the North Maharashtra region giving a chance of a pounding along the Ghats including Mumbai.
Just hope that this time also it doesnt take the northern trajectory like the previous low which danced merrily between upto West Madhya Pradesh and reversed and went back up further north.
Jim, are there any threats from Western Disturbances which could upset the applecart of the GFS projection.

Reply:

Dear Mohan,

Given that alll of this is 1-2 weeks away in time, I would say that, on principle, there is such a threat. Already, as of Tuesday, things look much different as relates Karachi, for instance. The numerical forecasts are going to lead us all through many twists and turns until the weather actually plays out as it will.

Jim

Hi Jim your latest update surely ia a cat of the bag,agreed arabian sea is active,pray whats happening to the bay of bengal? GFS on cola for 29th september shows huge cloud build up just like the monsoons. we are having thunderstorm since yesterday and accuweather promises more and hot humid conditions with spotty showers till the 6th of october,is it due to interaction of the moisture from the bay and W.D interaction very very eager to know.regards ,Anuj Arora

Reply:

Dear Anuj,

I would say that a northward shift of the Westerlies is fostering the stray storms along with the heat that many on the north west of the Subcontinent must be feeling at this time.

As to the Bay, this is where the upcoming tropical low/cyclone will first take shape; it later that it would shift over the peninsula to the Arabian Sea.

Jim