--Thanks to Wikipedia, here is a look at Tropical Cyclone Onil, as it looked on Oct. 2, 2004:
The storm track of T.C. Onil can be found at this link. More on 2004 North Indian Ocean cyclones here.
Onil began as a tropical depression on Oct. 1, 2004. It became a tropical cyclone on Oct. 2. Dry air then "killed" the storm as it drifted northeastward to westernmost Gujarat state, India, on Oct. 3. The low-level center, drifting southward over the Arabian Sea, spun for another week, however.
Ali writes in the comments that T.C. Onil yielded heavy rain at Badin, Sindh, Pakistan, along with nearby Gujarat. I believe that I recall, ever so distantly, this storm, but not any details.
--Could another "Onil" be in the making? I do not know, but the makings of an Arabian Sea depression or even cyclone can be found over peninsular India now, It has already triggered a burst of heavy rain at Ratnagiri. The GFS numerical forecast scenario shows a center of low pressure emerging along the west coast (Karnataka) during the next few days. With it, heavy falls of rain will sweep over a fairly small area along/west of the Ghats.
Next, the wandering low is tracked along an erratic path towards the north and west to become a full-blown cyclonic low early next week. It is all forecast to end with a swoop towards the northeast and landfall upon Gujarat.
--What to make of this? Well, there will be some low pressure along the west coast of India during the mid- to late week with locally heavy falls of rain nearby. If the low shifts far enough away from land, tropical cyclone status could be reached. At the start of next week, enough moisture for scattered thunderstorms will reach as far north as Sindh.
--By the way, the latest (1200 UTC on Tuesday) run of the GFS drops heavy rain over Karachi. This idea of extremely abnormal heavy rain over Karachi simply will not "go away." I would be more apt to believe this idea were it to be forecast for the same days, rather than shifting randomly from one model run to the next.
--Quickly, on Typhoon Ketsana. Landfall was apparently near Binh Son, south of Danang. Far from angling northwestward to skirt the Vietnam coast, Ketsana in truth jogged southward to landfall south of the JTWC forecast track (of Monday). Top winds at landfall were reckoned at 90 knots, or 165 kph--a Category 2 (Saffir-Simpson) hurricane.
Rainfall owing to Ketsana was over 35 cm at Da Nang and at least 45 cm at Hue.
--And now, there are three more tropical cyclones (depressions and storms) lined up eastward from Philippines: 18W, 19W (Parma) and 20W. More on these later.
Get a handy weather station and convenient public alert radio, all for one great price.
The Public Alert Docking Weather Station - available at AccuWeather's AccuMall.
© 2009 AccuWeather, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
AccuWeather.com is a registered trademark of AccuWeather, Inc.
Terms of usage under which this service is provided.
Privacy Statement
192.168.77.227 | FLBS
Subscribers sign-in to AccuWeather Premium | AccuWeather Professional | AccuWeather RadarPlus
Not a Member? Read all about Premium, Professional, RadarPlus, and LightningPlus
RSS Feeds Available 
Podcasts Available 
Blogs Available
This page may contain Mapping and GPS Navigation Systems provided by GeoMicro, Inc.
Dear jim:As you know that no chance of rain over karachi but any chance of partly sunny weather?
Dear Shoiab,
Few (or no) clouds through Wednesday or Thursday.
Jim
Posted by shoaib | October 5, 2009 9:14 AM
This Monsoon season Karachi was the most wettest city in the country. Normal Monsoon rains from june till sept for Khi is 137.5mm But we got 395mm rains.. Another thing is that Punjab and NWFP did not receive any monsoon rains,they all received it from western disturbance which is quite weak(highest rain in lahore was only 41mm and last year it was 600mm). Now for future whats your opinion on Winter rains and MONSOON 2010? plz reply!!
Reply:
Dear Ali,
I must repeatedly tell readers of this site that I do not make long-range/seasonal forecasts. All I would be doing would be guessing wildly and hoping to win by luck. Little more than flipping a coin.
What is more, I know of no site that I would trust to make an insightful long-range outlook. Such a site may well exist, but I am not aware of it.
Jim
Posted by Ali | October 5, 2009 6:39 AM
Dear jim:Is there Any chance of partly sunny or cloudy weather over karachi?Currently weather is very hot and i know desert karachi will not have rain.
Reply:
Dear Shoiab,
Few (or no) clouds through Wednesday or Thursday.
Jim
Posted by shoaib | October 4, 2009 3:23 PM
i think there will be no rain in karachi.
Posted by faisal | October 3, 2009 4:52 AM
Well, everything is now normal. The "future cyclone" didnt form and that monsoon low quickly disappearing now. It didnt even come to Gujarat and Sindh.. Well its very hot in Karachi,But the met office says its normal for the month of october..
Posted by babar | October 3, 2009 4:21 AM
Dear jim:I think game is over and there is no advantage of waiting more.This is natural thing that each year dozens of time lowest pressure finishes before it can hit karachi or it goes different locations but not over karachi.I do not know that why this happens?
Reply:
Dear Shoiab,
It all comes down to geography. The relative location of land and sea, mountain and plain, with respect to Karachi and all of South Asia.
Jim
Posted by shoaib | October 2, 2009 3:24 PM
hi every1 how does hurraince work?
Reply:
By tapping heat stored in tropical seas. It releases this heat by condensing evaporated water in its towering rain clouds. Then it eventually sends the heat towards cooler parts of the Earth. Thus, a hurricane helps to even out the distribution of heat on Earth.
Jim
Posted by tabz | October 2, 2009 5:52 AM
Dear jim:I can't expect good rain over karachi and the reason is that everybody is showing hot and dry forecast.Nobody is saying about rain.
Posted by shoaib | October 1, 2009 2:08 PM
Hi jim.
The forecast also says that the temp of karachi to rise (43C) and pressure to drop at 999mb. Can we say or predict that the proposed storm will head towards the area of minimum pressure and where the temp is highest? (likewise happened of TC yemyin)..
thanks.
Reply:
Dear Ali,
By now, it is clear that a cyclone did not -- and will not -- happen. The idea that a cyclone would be drawn towards the highest surface temperature/lowest surface pressure seems wrong-headed to me. I believe that other factors are more key to storm movement. Moreover, the heat and low pressure at Karachi are tied to the interaction between the local lay of the land and the atmosphere.
Jim
Posted by Ali Ahmed | October 1, 2009 9:11 AM
Hi Jim,
Just want to know any chance of Rain in Oman ?
Reply:
Dear Mahek,
I would say virtually no chance. There will be no Arabian Sea cyclone this time.
Jim
Posted by Mahek | October 1, 2009 8:01 AM
Hi Jim,
The 00,06,12Z runs of the GFS on Sep 30th all predict the tropical low to stall over the northern Arabian Sea before moving to the Gulf of Oman!
Reply:
Dear Ahmed,
I see that the ECMWF has little hint of a cyclonic low west of India. I should be forgiven for not knowing what to believe. Anyways, as of Wednesday, the thing that seems most likely to me (but of which I have low confidence) is that low pressure will deepen off western India south of Gujarat late in the week, maybe to a tropical depression or cyclone. Most likely, it would then drift northeast to land or stall and dissipate.
Jim
Posted by Ahmed | September 30, 2009 12:14 PM
i will be happy if it produces heavy falls in karachi
Posted by babar | September 30, 2009 6:28 AM
hi jim,
Ineed a simple answer to my question. When will wind changes fron SW to NE in india and how they are calculating the withdrawal of SW monsoon in India?
Reply:
Dear Dinagar,
There is no simple answer to your question. The way I understand it, the shift happens in a complicated, subtle and step-wise way across the Subcontinent during early to mid Fall, mostly in the month of October. Later in the far south.
The IMD mark progress/withdrawal of the SW Monsoon over India, so it is they who have the key to tracking it.
Jim
Posted by dinagar ganesh | September 30, 2009 1:10 AM
Perhaps the would-be tropical low over the Arabian sea will be similar to Onil!
Interesting!
Regarding the track shown by the GFS, It seems now it will move NW but then veer NE and avoid reaching Oman. The GFS keeps altering the track.
We shall wait and see if TS Phyan gets born
Posted by Ahmed | September 29, 2009 1:42 PM